Friday trade is month end with a strong Dow and heat for next week to put a bid in the beans. August up 27 3/4 to 1637 and no deliveries on first notice. Will be switching to Sept bean quotes moving forward. Sept corn up 1 1/4 to 616 1/4, and wheat off 9 1/4 to 807 3/4. Some talk of vessels moving out of Ukraine ports that are already loaded, but also concerns about poor quality from sitting this long. Rice off 13 1/2 cents, 1688 1/2 with the first decent reports out of La. fields. Fund long didn't defend and we lost some open interest. Dow up 335 points to paint the weekly charts, 32,825, and bonds up 27 tics, 144 even.
Thursday trade bulled up by dome of fire coming next week and a squeeze in the August soy complex. We will be into deliveries Friday morning so make sure you have no august left. August beans gain another 30 1/2 to 1609 1/4 with oil leading the way this time. Wheat didn't like below $8 and a 26 3/4 cent rally get us a 817 close. Corn up 14 3/4 to 615 and plenty of reports repeating the same mantra of variability of stands. Rice slips 6 1/2 to 1702 as no one wanted to push either way. Dow strong and posts a 318 point gain, 32,490, and bonds up 13 tics, 143.05.
August meal squeeze continues and beans along for the ride, 1578 3/4, up 46. Corn up 3 1/4 to 600 1/4, and wheat 13 1/2 lower, 790 1/4. Rice in a quiet day and off a penny, 1708 1/2. Open interest in corn and beans still not showing the upward bias Id like as we are in liquidation as much as a weather run. Maybe the weather story is why the shorts are being forced to pay so much for their attempt to bully. Fed raised 75 basis points as expected and nothing surprising out of Powell, so Dow pops 440 points to 32,172, and bonds surprisingly up another 20 tics, 142.24.
Tuesday trade more powerful to the upside with declining crop ratings and a ridge that appears to be getting stronger. Several places got rain, but several that were forecast got missed. Beans light it up for 59 3/4 cents on the back of strong meal and short covering going into Aug deliveries, 1532 3/4. Wheat pops 33 3/4 to 803 3/4. Nice pop, but we are still talking about only $8 wheat in the face of the Russia/Ukraine conflict with no end in sight. A bit worrisome in the big picture to me. Corn gains 17 to 597, and rice bounces another 16 1/2 to 1709 1/2. Dow spent a quiet day softer, 31,732, off 235 and making all the trade since last Tuesdays close worthless. Bonds up another 23 tics, 142.04, and briefly over 143. That's just crazy talk in this world events cycle. We better get some kind of relief out of the Fed minutes today.
After what is expected to be a mild weather week this week, Monday weather forecasters have next week going back to a hot a dry cycle. Funds have wound down most of their long position and are not set up for a grain rally at this point, with negligible positions in rice in wheat and under 100K long beans, maybe 120K long corn. For big money boys, these are small positions. Beans pop 38 1/2 to 1473. Corn up 15 3/4 to 580 and a 770 wheat close gains 11. Another quiet day in rice, 1693, plus 6 1/2. Pretty dull Dow day, 31,967, plus 92, and bonds give back 21 tics from lofty levels, 141.13.
Friday open had grains getting hit from an agreement brokered by Turkey to ship grain out of the Ukraine. Wheat Off 30 early and closing 47 1/4 lower, 759. I would like to point out that open interest was up 6390 on the day, so it's safe to say some of the short funds are back in play. Corn opened lower, bounced to better on the day, but faded late to 564 1/4, down 11 1/2. Beans bucked the trend and crush return is so high either meal or oil needs to get wacked pretty hard or pushing beans down will be more difficult from here. 1434 1/2, plus 16. Rice off a dozen in relatively quiet trade, 1686 1/2. Talk of another 40K of milled to Iraq might be in the works. Cash guys started sniffing around for old crop again. Dow in yet another churn day, 31,875, minus 132, but bonds rip for another point and 23 tics, 142.02. Still just shocked at the strength of the bonds.
Weather story getting softer and grains respond in kind Wednesday. Beans hit the most, 1449, off 28 1/4. Corn down 4 1/2 cents, 592 1/4, and wheat 7 1/4 higher with reports of increased Russian aggression, 819 1/2. Rice gives back 21 1/2 of Mondays outsized gains, 1694 1/2. The computer is just hunting these markets up and down looking for action. Financial room pretty quiet with bonds off 2 tics, 138.16, and the Dow gains 62 points to 31,853.
Dow was risk on Tuesday and up 744 points at the end, 31,791. Bonds off 22 tics, 138.18. Wetter forecasts put a halt to Mondays bullish talk in a hurry, and Beans gave back 20 cents, 1477 1/4. Corn off 15 1/2 to 596 3/4. Wheat stable at 812 1/4, off 1/2. Rice buyer back again and we gain another 9 cents, 1716.
Monday out of the box like a rocket with the Dow up nearly 400 and all the grains bulled up on drier conditions, both here and abroad. Dow fell apart and lost 200 by the close, 31,047. Bonds off 25 tics, 139.08. Grains held up with wheat up 36 cents, 812 3/4, corn holding 8 higher, 612 1/4, and beans popping 31 1/4 to 1497 1/4. Rice lit it up for 70 cents on a spike and closed 54 1/2 higher, 1707. That's the good news. All the grains had declining open interest in the rally, so all we really did was catch some shorts with their hands in the cookie jar. It should make the short funds a little less aggressive in trying to push next time.
A fair amount of window dressing going on Friday where there was little resistance. Dow up over 1000 points in 24 hours from Thursday lows, and settles 31,347, plus 643 points. Bonds up 15 tics, 140.01. I think sticky high 130's to 140 in the bonds is making people see that the Fed may have 2 more hikes in them at best, and the full point in July is getting less likely. Commitments showed us the funds have got short wheat and thus the 18 1/4 cent markdown for the weekly close, 776 3/4. Beans off 5 1/4 to 1466, but Nov was higher. Corn off 3/4 cent, 604 1/4, but again DEC was higher. Rice up 12 1/2 to 1652 1/2 and the longs that needed to find the door have.