Thursday opened with pretty much expected deliveries and nothing stellar in export sales. Reports at 11 were mostly in line and we went from lower to better on the day, but the great reset pushed us lower for the rest of the day. Switching to September futures, Corn hit for 35 1/4 to 628 3/4. Wheat pummeled down 46 cents, 884. Rice fares the best, 1674 1/2, down 5 1/2. August beans drop 11 to 1560 1/2. Dow was ugly in a contained way, 30,781, off 218 points, but that close was including a 375 point bounce from the lows. Bonds gain a point and 22 tics, 138.20, and I'm starting to wonder if this is a slow motion flight to quality. Something here really doesn't add up. Friday should be a churn day with the computers working the reset to a lower level but surely not willing to give this ride up. Long holiday weekend for new stories to be written to.
Interesting day Wednesday. Beans up every day this week, gaining another 10 1/2 to 1074 1/4 with crazy strong meal. Hearing there may be some issues with SA meal fulfillment but this seems to be a domestic driven run. Rice bear wouldn't defend and the buyer didn't have to buy many to get us into small stops, 1645 for a 24 cent gain. If a neutral to bearish report wasn't in the cards, we could have gotten silly I believe. Medium is as high as 875 from $8 bucks a week ago. Corn up 10 3/4 and the N/U spread gained 16, with July closing 770 1/4. Wheat the laggard again, off 5 3/4 to 915 1/2 on us missing the Egypt business. News flash, we were never going to get any of that trade, but now almost a million tons of wheat is no longer for sale in the global market, and the first whispers of India having production trouble are surfacing. Record heat in March and stupid high Fert prices are about to show their ugly head. Dow almost asleep, 30,999, plus 66, and bonds gain a point and 25 tics,136.30. Very interesting revelations by Powell and Lagarde today. Hope to do a write-up between reports tomorrow on the global financial picture.
Tuesday trade firm in the grain room with beans gaining another 33 1/4 to 1663 3/4. Lower prices brought new business and I am frankly surprised at the strength of meal. Wheat bounced back 17 1/4 to 921 1/4 and corn bid 15 1/4 higher as well, 759 1/2. Rice rallied 13 to 1621 and we still have 650 of July open interest unaccounted for. Do we have a commercial standing for delivery out in the wings? We should know tomorrow, but either way, make sure all July Grain positions are cleaned up before Wednesday close to avoid any risk of delivery. Dow churned up 450 and down 488 on the close for a wild ride, but really just expanded churn that Fridays action opened the door to. 30,933. Bonds off 5 tics, 135.05.
Monday Just a chop day in financials with the Dow setting back 66 points from Fridays big upside run, 31,421, and bonds off 23 tics, 135.10. Beans strong with solid cash market, 1630 1/2, up 19 3/4. Rice just continuing the spread roll, 1608, up 2 1/2. Wheat bear system still pushing down, 904, off another 19 3/4 and really getting oversold. Corn follows off 6 cents, 744 1/4. Need to be out of all July contracts by Wednesday close.
Friday Dow strong out of the box and closes 815 higher, 31,487. When a market gets beat down that far, its easy to have big bounces. Keep that in mind as these computers run thru the grains. Bonds off a point and 2 tics, 136.01. Open interest getting hammered in the grains as funds and spec longs head for the hills. Corn gained 3 1/2 to 750 1/4 with July losing 65K of open interest and the contract dropping 49,000. Nearly pinned the 750 strike and that puts someone in a long position by 1/4 cent. Same story in beans with a 1610 3/4 close, up 17 1/2. Beans lost 40,000 of open interest in the day. Wheat off another 13 1/2 to 923 3/4 and the bear wants to make sure we have weak closes. July rice off 6 to 1605 1/2 and open interest in July now under registered receipts. Looks like July futures are stuck without any hidden buyers. Export slowness is catching up to us.
Thursday was a day of grain capitulation as spec longs blew out of positions in volume. Beans took it the worst, 1593 1/4, off 59 1/2. Wheat not far behind leaving 39 1/4 on the table, 937 1/4. Corn in tow, down 21 to 746 3/4. Rice gave back the Wednesday bounce, 1611 1/2. off 20. Dow in a tight but firm day gaining 201 points, 30,672, and bonds up a point and 4 tics, 137.03. Really don't see how the bonds can go up much more.
Wednesday rice trade finally gets a 19 cent bounce, 1631 1/2, from a dime lower on the day with no real volume to sell. Corn rebounds 7 1/4 to 768, and that's about the only good stuff for the day. Wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents, 976 1/2, but that was 30 off the high. Beans fell another 28 1/4 to 1652 3/4. Oil down hard again and the bio fuels guys need to repair their calculators. Dow lost only 54 points at the close, 30,471, but it took a 450 point rally to do it. Bonds up 2 points and 19 tics, 135.31, The world is afraid of Powell, and headed for the sidelines.
After a long weekend, grains are weaker on Tuesday morning with more talk of an export corridor for Russia/Ukraine grains to move. Wheat gets pummeled as funds switch from long to short, 975 1/4, off 59 cents on the bloody day. Corn follows 23 3/4 lower as well 760 3/4. Reminder not to catch a falling knife. Whole soy complex is lower with beans off 21 to 1681. Rice off 9 1/2 to 1612 1/2 with 375 vs cash in July as commercials get pricing locked in down here, and we get July open interest down to 2100 a bit earlier then I expected. Have 6-700 of July positions that I cant make out right now. Dow pops for 656 points, 30,525, and bonds leak a point and 9 tics, 133.12.
Friday tried to open firm but no follow thru and rice bear pushed with little resistance. Then wheat rolled over and just wouldn't bounce, ending the day off 44 cents, 1034 1/4. Makes the Thursday wheat gains all disappear and more, just like we saw in rice 2 weeks ago when we had a Monday rally, Tuesday break, and that week long dollar break is about where we are now. Rice off 13 1/2 to 1622. More spread rolls and more flat liquidation. Rice drops 165 and wheat loses over 5,000 of open interest in a day, all July. Corn comparatively strong at 784 1/2, slipping only 3 3/4 but near the lows of the days range. Beans pulled in two directions as meal gained another 8 bucks, but oil lost 250 and crude got whacked as well. Soy settles 1702, off 7 1/2. Dow 340 off the highs, but 230 off the lows in what turned out to be just another churn day after false signaling both upside and downside runs. 29,869 minus 50. Bonds up another point and 8 tics, 134.21, as the big money is signaling that a recession will invert the yield curve and We will be dead in the water in a few months, tops. The problem is with such a strong dollar, when we do something stupid, every other central bank in the world immediately does the same stupid stuff, so what we do is getting magnified on a global scale at a very fast pace.
Thursday exports nothing to write home about, other than solid rice numbers which were past due. Looks like something positive came out of the party in Cancun. Weather getting more attention than depression as there are hot spots all around the northern hemisphere and if some of the longer range heat shows up, we are going to be dealing with Brazil 2.0 right here at home. Meal up 12 bucks and banging on 430 again with beans up 15 3/4 to 1709 1/2. Corn picks up 14 1/4 to 788 1/4 and wheat lights up the board, 1078 1/4, for a 28 1/4 gain. Rice bear pushing the thin market down another dime, 1635 1/2, and a gain in open interest makes me wonder if the same fund that ran us too high last week is getting short now. Might as well give him some room and a haircut twice in a month. Bonds gain a point to 133.13, and Dow spanked down 732 points, 29,919.