Last trading day of the year and Thursday didn't disappoint. Dow ran up to the highs and closed 30,497, plus 195. Bonds up 11 tics, 173.06. Wheat stalled at these high levels, catching its breath, 640 1/2, but oats have quietly traded above 360, so this rally is across most grains. Corn pops another 9 1/2 to 484, closing out a killer strong week. 522 was the 2014 high. Switching to March for beans and rice as we are now in Jan deliveries, Beans gain 10 1/2 to 1311 and looking to clear my next area of resistance without too much trouble here. Rice pops 20 in the last 15 minutes on what appears to be a year-end dressing, 1269. Beans cant find anyone in Jan to deliver, and rice had to dig up the banksters just to carry. Tale of two grains for sure.
Wednesday feature was the wheat strength from the beginning, with the Russian tariffs going into fall to the bottom line of the buyer, not the seller, and talk that US wheat is getting competitive for tenders we usually wouldn't see. 22 1/4 higher on the day and solid all day, 640 3/4. I would caution that the rally came with a big jump in OI, so some of the players to the dance are working on a very short leash. Corn up 8 1/2 to 474 1/2 with the feature being Argy officially cutting off exports until march to protect their internal supply. We are already the cheapest and most dependable, so its a safe bet we just got some new shoppers in the corn isle. Argy port strike is at least partially settled, but beans gained 8 1/4 anyway, 1303 3/4. Market is past due for a setback, but I would not get short. Only 5 deliveries last night, and no meal. Rice settled unchanged in Jan, 1220 1/2, but we got new receipts registered, and it was the banksters paying up to get them. We are fully current and I don't see any more commercial pull. One more reason amongst many to be wary of rice of all the grains. Dow up 64 in yet another dull churn day for the computers, 30,302, while bonds pick up 6 tics, 172.27. Feel like these bonds have lulled us to sleep, and our eyes are cloudy.
Tuesday brought big buying and short covering, along with aggressive options activity to the beans, with a 40 1/4 cent rally to 1295 1/2. Lots of reasons to look up 1290, and we did, but seems overdone for now. Meal did rally over $11 as well so there is a base to the trade. Corn cut thru 460 like a hot knife thru butter and closed 466, up 9 1/2. Big picture is a softer dollar and tight global food supply makes for high grain prices. Keep in mind, we are shipping, while other countries are paying demurrage. Rice popped 21 to 1220 1/2 as the spread caught a bid and the seller ran out of bullets. Wheat even found a floor and gained 4 1/4 to 618 1/2. Dow just a simple churn trade, 30,238, off 67, and bonds slip 3 tics, 172.21. Wednesday is first intentions for Jan, so make sure all Jan positions are cleaned up.
Post Christmas trade Monday Has the Jan delivery month trades soft, as everyone gets positioned for month end, year end, and deliveries. Bottom fell out of the rice spread and Jan broke 28 1/2 to 1199 1/2. We have reset to March for cash pricing, off 14 and fishing the lows of the range for now. Its nice to see Jan rice OI down to 566 already, so expect little to no more real fireworks there. Beans shaved 20K off OI as Jan trade was mostly straight liquidation and beans fell to 1255 1 /4, off 8 1/4, and really not a bad settle given how much of the trade was liquidation. Wheat dropped 12 3/4 to 6144 1/4, but its wheat, so? Corn started lower but found bids all day, supported by more exports to China presumably,456 1/2, up 5 1/2. Everyone wants to see how 460 acts. Bonds had a nothing day and closed unchanged, 172.24, and Dow continued its melt up churn trade, 30,305, plus 196. Cheap money makes for strong Dow.
Day before Christmas and Santa tries to bring us all good cheer. Dow up 75 points, 30,109, while the bonds gain 22 tics, 172.24. Rice buyer wasn't under the Jan futures and we dipped 11 cents, 1228. Rice roll is running smoothly and some of the longs just gave up based on OI. Open interest dropped in most everything as people pare positions going into the new year. Wheat slips 2 3/4 but a solid week, 627. Beans up another 4 3/4 to 1263 1/2, and that is with weak meal and a pretty big drop in total OI as we approach Jan deliveries, or what little of deliveries we might see. Corn up 3 3/4 to 451 and we still are reasonably priced on the world stage. Short trading week again next week.
Another solid Ag day on Wednesday as corn pokes at 450 and settles 447 1/4, up 3 3/4. Wheat chasing back up near the highs as well, 629 3/4 plus 12 3/4. Beans solid on the back of the meal market strength and spreads squeezing in, as well as shorts in Jan giving up in front of deliveries. 1258 3/4, up 11 1/2, but I would caution that OI dropped 11K in the process. Rice up 2 1/2 to 1239 on continued spread roll and bids under the market in Jan as we roll up to first notice day. A note of caution in the 1220 puts sitting out there 150 times and here we are at expiration. Dow takes the upside churn route for 122 points, 30,034, while bonds drop 31 tics, 172.02.
Firm grain trade Tuesday as 1250 acts as a short term resistance in beans. After a peek above, beans settle 1247 1/4, plus 4. Corn picks up 3 1/2 to 443 1/2 and wheat gains 5 3/4 to 617. Rice roll continues as no one is broadcasting heavy deliveries, 1236 1/2, up 1/2. Bear is trying to keep a lid on rice, and he has a few tricks up his sleeve. Commercial seems more interested in buying Jan and computer is playing in March. Dow churn continues, 29,912, off 201, and bonds gain 21 tics, 173.01.
Big ranges and computer driven trade Monday across most tradable commodities as the holiday scramble takes solid hold. Dow has over 1000 point range and settles unchanged, 30,113. Wow, just wow. Anyone that thinks fundamentals matter on any given day needs to look at Monday Dow trade. Bonds up 8 tics, 172.12. If there really was a financial story, any story of merit, bonds would have had more to say. Beans rip for 23 1/4 to 1243 1/4 as we hunt 1250. Wheat in a big churn but closes up 3 cents, 611 1/4. Corn gains 2 1/2 as well, 440 settle with a dime range. A farmer with a lot of corn in the bin might be looking a lot harder at booking some of it up here. I'm not saying sell the whole bin, but it seems time to reward some of the bulls with some more feed to me. Rice off 22 in a terrible action day, but right back down to commercial support, and those bids appear to be there to catch the drop from here on. 1236.
Impressive Friday trade in the grains as beans turn perceived $12 options resistance into support, and there isn't much expiring options resistance above. 1220, plus 18 3/4. Corn up another nickel to end the week 437 1/2. Rice just spread roll, 1258, off 1/2 cent but really held firm from Thursday rally. Based on market action, I would expect some new rice export sales to be reported to either Haiti or Iraq, and that would be all milled business. Wheat steady as well, 608 1/4, off 1/2. Dow in yet another churn trade, after peeking at new highs we close for the weekend at 30,113, off 89, and bonds leaked 17 tics, 172.04.
Great export sales fuels Thursday rally to new highs in the beans, 1201 1/4, plus 17 1/2. Corn pops 5 1/4 to 432 1/2, and wheat up 10 1/4 as well, 608 3/4. Global demand increasing as the price increases. Perception of shortage creates shortage. Rice up 24 1/2 to 1258 1/2 and back near the top of the range. Based on a few futures signals, maybe we are moving from a 550-575 range to a 560-590 range. I think its safe to say that more than just Venezuela is out there. Iraq or Haiti would be my guess. Dow continuing the churn up, 30,202, plus 128, and bonds slip 9 tics, 172.21.