Month end trade with beans holding Monday rally, 1538, plus 2 3/4. Oil up but meal soft. Wheat up 8 3/4 to 761 1/4 while corn slips 4 cents, 679 3/4. Rice pounded again to 1782 1/2, off 29 1/2 and down near $8 which should attract commercial buying. Dow recovered Monday and more, 34,156 and bonds up 3 tics, 129.28. New month and new money tomorrow. Problem with Calander trades is no one is really surprised.
Friday pretty much a churn day all around. Corn up 1/2 at the end, 683. Would expect some fresh export news as China comes off holiday and barge freight is ticking up, marking new demand to me. 750 wheat is off 2 1/2. Beans drop 14 to 1509 1/2 With meal slipping and a harvest dialing up in Brazil. Rice unchanged, 1831. Bonds off 8 tics, 130.05, while Dow trades lower, higher, and drawing back to just 23 higher at the close, 34,046.
Exports solid across the board to open Thursday trade firm and corn attracted 17,000 more longs to the dance on the day, 682 1/2, plus 7 3/4. Wheat up 11 1/4 to 752 1/2 as hostilities amp up. So far the Russia corridor is moving, and I don't see any reason why Ukraine would stop ships moving, but there is no problem having a war premium while there is active war going on. Beans up 21 cents, 1523 1/2 and on the high side of what I thought this wave could do, Rice buyer all day strong with a 15 cent better close, 1831. Dow closes 34,023 with a late push to get over 34K as expected, but they have to worry about too much exuberance drawing the ire of the FED in a few days. Bonds off 13 tics, 130 13.
Wednesday had a bunch of money flopping around with the Dow nearly unchanged, off 3 points on the day, but with a 475 point rally from the lows to do it. Bonds off a tic after losing the days early strength. 130.26. Beans looked lower but meal strength and Feb options brought us 14 higher, 1502 1/2. Wheat up 6 3/4 to 741 1/4. Corn gives back 2 1/4 to 674 3/4. Nothing there. Rice slips 6 1/2 to 1816 but no one willing to push rice down without something out of left field.
Tuesday bounce to Mondays weakness in a standard Monday/Tuesday harvest trade with corn fully recovering, 677, plus 10 3/4 and wheat up 14 1/2 to 734 1/2. Beans were higher as well but couldn't hold in the face of weaker late meal, oil, and spreads. 1488 1/2, minus 1 3/4. Rice unchanged, 1822 1/2. Dow looked 250 lower but bounced and closed 99 points higher, 33,826 while bonds gained a full point, 130.27. Computers doing what computers do.
Monday trade after what amounts to the first harvest weekend for Brazil soy softer across the grains early, and not much recovery thru the day. Beans off 16 1/4 to 1490 1/4 and the bounce from early lows driven by meals $9 rally from the lows. Corn off a dime, 666 1/4, and wheat down 21 1/2 to 720 with cheap Russia wheat and the European market rolling over as well, Doesn't matter how cheap US wheat gets, the rest of the world just drops their price accordingly. Its the cycle I fear for beans in the near and getting nearer future. Rice gets another 11 1/2 cent pop to 1822 1/2 with tight US supplies and rumors that all of SA is about done selling. No doubt rice is tighter now globally than we have been for several years. Dow continues the rebound, 33,727, plus 253 points in a pretty tight range and bonds slip 20 tics, 129.27.
Friday had decent exports in everything except rice but rice had the biggest pop, 1811, plus 20. Rice is pretty neutral from a positions standpoint and whichever way money wants to push it for the next 50-75 cents, its going. Open interest dropped and we had spread roll to new crop so clearly part of the strength was short covering. Corn slipped a penny in quiet trade, 676 1/4. Wheat up 7 in front of weekend potential issues with the Russia corridor, 741 1/2. Beans off 8 1/4 to 1506 1/2 with weak meal and oil, both flat priced and spreads. Dow hinted lower and tried to get under 33k but turned and rallied to 33,474, plus 335 on the day. If there is any way for a higher close on Fridays, they will find it. Bonds give pack a point and 9 tics of the midweek rally, 130.15.
Tired trade Thursday with exports delayed until Friday and better SA weather prospects. Wheat off 8 to 734 1/2 and corn off 4 cents, 677 2/4. That was with a flash sale to Mexico that I had hoped would provide some extra support. Beans drop 9 3/4 to 1514 3/4, but the spreads held. Meal flat price and spreads softened. Trading tip. Since you are now looking at options, did you notice that the bean puts really didn't gain much by the close? The systems are taking vol out of the options market. When thinking about selling a weak close, I generally look to the late options trade to see if the systems are nervous about a bigger move, or can I wait and maybe get a better bounce futures sale the next day. Dow off 247 points, 33,139, and bonds off 10 tics, 131.24.
Financial room took the heat out of Wednesday trade with the Dow off 634 points, 33,386, and bonds popping up two full points and 11 tics to 132.02. I get the Dow being overdone to the upside for now, but I would argue that the bonds flight to quality is excessive. Weak economic data being pushed as a drag on everything. Corn gave back 4 cents of Tuesday gain, 681 1/4 while wheat lost 9 1/4 to 742 1/2. Long side profits in wheat sure don't seem to stay around very long. Beans tried and failed at 1550 and we closed 15 1/4 lower, 1524 1/2. Meal and bean chart look awful soft to me, and at this point I'm biased. Rice quiet day, 1797, plus 3 1/2.
Mixed bag of trade Tuesday after a long weekend. Corn up 10 1/4 to 685 1/4 with 19k of new long positions, wheat gains 8 to 751 3/4, and beans up a dozen to 1539 3/4 on the back of long fund buying and $480 meal. Rice gives back 21 1/2 to 1793 1/2, back to last Mondays close. Soy can stay up here as long as the funds keep buying, but when anything changes, like a steady flow of soy vessels out of Brazil or the meal market rolls over, and there will be a lot of rats wanting off the ship all at the same time. Dow off 396 points, 34,020 and bonds slip 9 tics, 129.23.