Monday started off with a solid overnight trade in the beans, but no follow thru and a brief look below $13. We close 20 lower, 1303 1/4, and Sept collapsed for 54 cents. No deliveries, so should see at least a little bounce tomorrow. Corn off 11 to 542 3/4 and Sept broke to carries there too, but again no deliveries so we could get some recovery Tuesday. Wheat closed 708 3/4, off 9 3/4 and deliveries to nearly current in CBOT and KC. Most bullish world grain and someone delivers 1000? Spot rice off 7 cents, 1316 as the spread widens to carry and one bankster delivers to another, with almost 100 percent of open interest delivered, including 22 new receipts from Southern. You can put September rice to bed unless one of the elevators needs to raise money at full carry. Dow off 51 in a dead back and fill day, 35,352, and bonds gain 17 tics to get back over 165 by a tic, 165.01.
Feature of Friday was what looked like fund buying in corn to get 3 higher, 553 3/4. Open interest was off 31K and I guess a few shorts in sept stayed too long. Monday is first intentions in all the grains, so make sure you are out of all sept positions before the close. Funds are long net at least 270K of what is now almost all Dec corn. One day we will be talking about big crowd, small door I believe. Sept Wheat gave up 6 3/4 to 718 1/2 Friday. 13K OI drop there. Beans off 3 to 1323 1/4 with meal backing up. Meal doesn't seem to want to get too far from 350. Sept 1323 rice is off 8 and we are down to within 300 contracts of outstanding receipts so we should get current with Monday night deliveries. Dow puts on its usual Friday push, 35,403, plus 243. I would expect some back and fill at the least early next week. Bonds recover 14 tics, 164.16 in a pretty dull trade.
Thursday exports soft in corn, expected in beans, solid rice and wheat. Corn chopped around but settled off a penny, 550 3/4. That was in the face of 725 1/4 wheat, which was 14 higher. Beans slipped 6 1/2 to 1326 1/4 with meal still bid but the bio component of oil losing ground, and possibly losing EPA backing at the current levels. This could also be a huge deal in the negative to corn moving forward. Rice slips 4 1/2 to 1331 as we approach first intentions Monday. Dow off 200 in front of Powell speak on Friday, but really just a back and fill for the churn machine to me. 35,160. Bonds up 4 tics, 164.02.
Not a whole bunch to Wednesday trade as we digest a firm Tuesday and await exports Thursday. Corn took the lead and held 6 1/2 higher, 551 3/4. Beans struggled to hold a penny higher, 1332 3/4. Wheat slipped 6 3/4 to 711 1/4, and it took a solid bounce in rice to get 2 lower, 1335 1/2. Dow churn for 46 points, 35,360 and bonds broke a point and 3 tics, 163.30. We finally walked away from 165 and it will be worth the watch to see if rates peaked.
Explosive rally in beans and corn catching some of the seasonal short sellers flat footed. Corn up 9 3/4 to 545 1/4 and beans pop for 39 cents, 1331 3/4. Oil was firm and meal found its feet below 350 again. Was a little nervous about the meal market and still will watch it closely for weakness. Corn and beans open interest both declined in the rally, not so rosy. Surprisingly, wheat and rice didn't come along for the ride. Rice off 1 1/2 to 1337 1/2 and wheat off 1/3/4 to 718. Wheat is known tight globally and rice is tight ex china, regardless of some reporting to the contrary. Someone did buy 100 Nov 14 rice calls. Dow took the day off, 35,314, plus 33, and bonds leaked 25 tics, 165.01.
Monday tried to bounce in Ag with beans firm out of the box and new corn sales flash, but we fade thru the day and corn ends off a penny and a half, 535 1/2, while beans could only muster a 2 cent gain, 1292 3/4. Wheat was up 5 1/2 to 719 3/4 but sure didn't look like it had much of a sponsor. Rice picked up a dozen on lack of selling and continued firm spread roll, 1339. Dow popped on surviving the weekend and some comfort that Powell will stay leading the Fed, 35,281, plus 223, while the bonds took another day off, 165.26, plus 2 little tics.
Corn continued the decline Friday losing 13 3/4 to 537. 10K jump in OI, so either we got farmer selling or funds pushing. Wheat off 13 1/4 cents, 714 1/4. Beans ugly again and tests 1280 while settling off 29 1/4 to 1290 3/4. Jump of 6600 OI in beans as well and oil was a dog. Rice gains 7 1/2 with more spread roll and more receipts being cancelled and shipped, 1327. OI in Sept is down near 2100 so most of the roll is done. Dow up 240 to 35,058 after being down just as much. Bonds a nothing day Friday, 165.24, minus 2 tics.
Thursday exports big in beans as expected, and beans fall 33 1/4 to 1320. That's a slap in the face to any bull left. Corn off 14 1/4 to 550 3/4. Wheat holds up best, 727 1/2, only losing 9 3/4. Rice off 9 cents, 1320 as the roll continues and cash seems bid for prompt. Bonds up 24 tics, 165.26, and the Dow rallies more than 300 points from the lows, but still closes off 69 points, 34,818. Big air on both sides of the Dow for Friday action.
Dow wound up weak Wednesday as fears about global instability start to show some of the cracks in the system. Dow off 372 at the end of the day, 34,887, and actually better than I expected, abet still soft. Bonds sat on the sidelines, 165.02, off 2 tics. Beans off 8 1/4 cents, 1353 1/4, with meal and oil soft. Rice down 16 as well, 1328 1/2. Wheat held 2 3/4 higher, 737 1/4, and corn stayed stable, 565, plus 1 1/2.
Tuesday trade softer everywhere as new bean sales cant trump pressure from the Dow and global wheat pause. Dow off 275 even after a couple hundred point bounce, 35,259. Bonds unchanged though Fed is talking about unwind starting as early as Sept. Guess fear of whats happening in Afghanistan is trickling in. Wheat off 26 to 734 1/2. Oats up to 507, but corn falls another 5 1/4 to 563 1/2. Beans down 6 3/4 to 1361 1/2 with soft oil. Rice down 10 1/2 to 1344 1/2 and into a few new bids. Spread roll is going off firm so far.