Friday looked to be the standard open high and fade in the grains, but it was weekend and month end, and that means we get a little more closing paint. Corn closes 12 1/2 higher, 547, and trades a new move high during the day. Wheat 16 higher, 663 and firm all day. Meal $4 to the good and that helped beans stay solid, 1370, up 16 3/4. Rice up 7 to 1346. What I find positive about the grains in general is that we are holding these gains without silly increases in OI, as well as soft financial market input, as the Dow closes off 628 points, 29,879, and bonds drop 27 tics, 168.23.
Thursday trade has the computer churn systems setting their traps in my eyes, with spikes to get the suckers in play and bigger ranges to get the churn trade profits thru the day. Corn trades 550 but falls thru the day to 534 1/2, up 1/2 cent. Same story across the Ag board, with wheat higher but off 11 1/4 lower by the end, 647. Great bean open and bled all day, 1353 1/4 off 21 1/2. Meal $9 softer. Rice off 6 1/2 to 1339. Dow in a 900 point range and up 318 at the close, 30507. 169.18 bonds, off 28 and weaker than I expected.
Corn sets a new high Wednesday but sets back about a dime to close 534, up 1 3/4. Beans 20 off highs but still 4 1/2 better close, 1374 3/4. Wheat off 7 cents, 658 1/4. Rice rallies 15 cents 1345 1/2, with a new but much delayed Iraq tender finally coming to the market. They don't have to buy American, but we have the money in place and LA milling and shipping is finally back on line and able to play. Dow gets hit for 653 points in a bad day of trade for the longs, 30,189, and bonds pick up 18 tics, 170.14.
Tuesday rally continues with corn up 20 3/4 to 532 1/4. Another big slug of corn sales booked. Beans rip for 26 3/4 to 1370 1/4. Meal up $7. Wheat gains 16 3/4 on the Russian tax increase hitting home, 665 1/4. Rice quietly up 7 to 1130 1/2. Dow settles 30,842, off 26 but almost 200 off the lows. Sound familiar? Dead day in bonds, 169.28, minus 3.
Margin clerks had nothing to do Monday morning and the buyers who waited got nothing, as we were strong all day. Me included. Corn up 11 to 511 1/2. Beans up 31 3/4 to 1343 1/2 with strong meal and no big jump in OI that most would expect. Wheat up 14 to 648 1/2. Rice closed 1323 1/2, minus 4 after it was down 20. Another lackluster day in rice. Dow off 41 points, 30868 after a 400 point rally from the lows. Bonds up a point and 3 tics to 169.31.
Feb calendar options expiration Friday, and I was looking for what strike might be pinned, vs all the strikes just getting wiped out. Figured they would pin 520 corn and instead we wiped out everything down to $5, with a 23 3/4 cent break to 500 1/2. Decent drop in Mach Oi as expected but no wholesale position flush. Commitments had the funds lightening up last week by 25K in advance of this washout. The thing the numbers are screaming at you about is there are two very distinct sets of funds, and computer programs, running at the same time. One very short dated and one very long. Beans get spanked for 58 1/2 to 1311 3/4 with meal soft by another $17. I was reminded that back in 08 we had a $1.50 pullback in march on the way to 15.86. Wheat off 26 1/4 to 634 1/2. Rice had another low volume day, 1327 1/2, up 3, but commercials did 525 vs cash, so rice is still moving. Dow off 173 points, 30,909 and bonds up 14 tics, 168.28.
Thursday opened strong but faded thru the day. Corn the best of the lot, 524 1/4, up 2 1/4. Beans up 3/4 to 1370 1/4 but well off highs. Meal leaking $4 didn't help. 1324 1/2 rice close up 3 1/2 on a low volume day. Wheat off 7 to 660 3/4. Dow peeked at a new high but closed off 14 points, 31,082, and bonds slipped 18 tics, 168.14.
Follow thru selling Wednesday morning at the opening, but buying all day Across the grain floor. Corn closes 522, down 4, but 9 off the lows. Beans down 16 1/4 to 1369 1/2, but 17 up from the bottom. Wheat only off 4 1/2 cents, 667 3/4, and a 11 cent recovery. Pretty quiet rice, 1321, plus 1 1/2. Cant figure rice out here. It acts like its waiting on news the whole world knows about to come out so it can adjust, but what if nothing comes? Dow up 268 to 31,096 and bonds up a tic, 169 even. Not surprised at the window dressing for the inauguration, but its time some heavy lifting occurs in the financials.
Ugly Tuesday trade in beans, 1385 3/4, off 31 cents and meal pounded for $12 as well. Corn off 5 1/2 to 526. Wheat held the best, surprisingly, 672 1/4, minus 3 1/4. Decent rains in SA and a growing need to have a setback made Tuesdays break relatively straight forward, and necessary for a healthy market. Wheat story is really out of the EU and Russia. Rice up 8 to 1319 1/2 with no real story but farmers wanting $6 to sell for now. Financials pretty quiet before the inauguration, with the bonds picking up 5 tics, 168.31, and the Dow up 108 points, 30,828.
Friday trade closed out the week with a little back filling. Corn off 2 3/4 to 531 1/2 with old crop OI off 14K. Wheat closed 5 1/2 higher, 675 1/2, but well off early highs. Meal held pretty firm in the face of beans leaking 13 3/4 cents, 1416 3/4. Soft close. Funds looked to be back buying rice but OI says one long just replaced another, 1311 1/2, minus 4. Dow in a 450 point churn, 30,720, off 189 but a couple hundred off the lows. Seem familiar? Bonds pretty quiet but gain 19 tics, 168.26.