Comparatively quiet Dow day Tuesday as we close off 416 points, 21,751. Bonds off a point and 21 as well, 179.02. Id say computer churn in the bonds and a renewed bear market in the Dow. Corn off 1/2 cent, 340 3/4 with a solid decrease in stocks against s solid increase in projected acres. Beans gain 3 3/4 to 886 but in the face of $4 weaker meal. Wheat stalled again, 568 3/4, off 3/4. Rice roll starting and 6 lower close, 1403 1/2.
Dow up another 730 Monday to 22,167 as most expected weakness to start and had to cover shorts. First quarter fund re balance lending a bid for a few days as well. Bonds up a point and 21 tics to 180.23. Rice bull working the market up another 12 1/2 to 1409 1/2 and running into spread selling from new crop. Beans close 882 1/4, plus 3/4 with firm meal. Wheat stuck here, 569 1/2, off 1 3/4 as supplies in the country bid up to meet domestic package demand. Corn off 4 3/4 to 341 1/4 with ethanol demand destruction the common story.
Friday Dow weakness is the feature yet again, 21,437, minus 911 points. Bonds up 30 tics to 179.02, but surprisingly well off the highs earlier in the day. Corn down 2 3/4 with ethanol losses weighing more than export gains. Acreage report Tuesday expected to have a substantial bias to more corn plantings, although I ultimately think the farmer is smarter than that and will allocate extra acres to beans. Beans off 1 1/4 to 881 1/2. Wheat closes 2 1/4 higher, 571 1/4, but well off early highs. Rice up 20 more, 1397 and nearing the top of where the options guys make money with the verticals done earlier. Monday trade will revolve around the Dow and evening up in front of the Tuesday acreage report.
Dow leads Thursday higher by 1322 points, 22,348 and bond are up 12 tics as well, 178.04. Wheat off 11 to 569 with some confusion about Russian export licenses. Beans only off 1 1/4 to 880 1/4 with solid meal. Seems like I have written that before. Seems like I will be writing that again. Corn up 1/4 on great exports, over weak ethanol, 348 3/4. Rice bull back in charge, 1377, up 14 1/2 with plenty of air above.
Dow up 418 points to 21,026 but well off midday highs. bonds off a point and 3 tics, 177.24. Rates aren't going anywhere soon. Wheat up 18 1/2 to 580 with stories out of Russia restricting exports and France catching a bid. Rice pops 34 1/2 to 1362 1/2 as the $6 a bushel area holds, funds appear to be willing to buy small again, and importantly, Vietnam restricting exports briefly to ascertain their stocks position. Vietnam has a habit of selling most everything it produces with very little buffer, and the country doesn't want to export themselves into a domestic shortage. Beans off 5 1/4 to 881 1/2 as meal takes a $10 hit. Just funds who are long now looking at who is on board with them. I expect the meal break to be short lived. Funds will run the meal ramp just like they did rice. Corn up 1 1/4 to 348 1/2, but I must say, demand destruction from the ethanol shutdowns from Poet could easily offset our newfound exports. We wont be saying King corn for a long time I'm afraid.
Dow rips up 2111 points to 20,608 and bonds only slip 26 tics, 178.27. President Trump has put a tentative target of Easter to start opening up the country. There is a lot of discourse that this is too soon, but just like in Ag , these issues are regional. I get keeping the hot spots contained, like New York, but were there is no real difficulties, why would you shut down the entire economy. You manage your beans, from planting thru harvest differently in Wisconsin than in Arkansas, because local conditions warrant. Speaking of beans, up another 2 3/4 cents, 886 3/4. Corn up 3 3/4 to 347 1/4 with more china sales being discussed and lack of farmer selling. Short is covering and OI is not going up yet. Wheat pushed lower early but rallies to a penny lower, 561 1/2. Rice up 4 1/2 to 1328. Looks like more of the longs are willing to liquidate than roll on this cycle, and that is just now starting. Word of caution.
Dow closes off 543 Monday, but well off lows, 18,497. Bonds up 3 points 22 tics, 179.21 as the financial markets push all their debt to the fed and it swallows it up. Stability all the same. Wheat rocks 23 1/4 higher to 562 1/2 with spot demand leading the way. Corn off 1/4 to 343 1/2 as the pressure of fuel demand loss outweighs any export demand for now. Rice off a nickel, 1323 1/2 with the fund liquidation stalling here at cash bid prices. Beans rock 23 1/4 higher, 562 1/2 with demand to replace SA production that just wont ship. Again the world is getting the lesson that you cant have just in time supply chains from socialist countries. Meal up another 8 dollars and hard to get an offer out of who should be the big supplier right now Argentina.
Friday trade all revolved around what you were exposed to. Dow tried to rally, but weekend shutdown fears allowed for a 835 point futures break, 19,040. Several of the big historical bear markets were in the 45% area lower, give or take, so I could see my 15-16,000 number achieved next week potentially. I honestly never thought that much of a pullback was possible, and now I wonder if that will stop it. America has never been shut down like this, coast to coast. We are in uncharted waters, and its better to have dry powder wherever possible. Fear always presents opportunity. You can bet Buffet is working overtime this weekend deciding which inept CEO to fleece for terms the public could never imagine. Bonds up 3 points 11 tics to 175.31. In Ag, wheat held Thursdays rally and added 4 1/4 more, 539 1/4. Corn gave back only 1 3/4 to 343 3/4. Meal up another 10 bucks, dragging beans up another 19 1/4 to 862 1/2. For beans and corn, price from here is port dependent. Argy and Brazil are having port troubles, opening the door to more global exports out of the PNW and gulf, but we have to be able to execute. As long as we can load vessels, I expect a fair amount of business. Just as people hoard when food supply concerns arise, so will countries and foreign governments. And we don't have the excess that the USDA currently has on their balance sheets. Rice took a 63 1/2 cent dive as the early week buy specs got hammered to end the week. 1328 1/2, about where the commercial is still willing to bid. How would you like to have to explain to your boss how you burned 1.5-2 million on a spec trade in an ill-liquid market in 2-3 days? Bet that guy isn't coming back anytime soon.
Nothing shocking in export sales, and the Dow churned but closed 22 higher, 19,875. Bonds recovered 4 points and 21 tics to 172.20 as the financial markets are finally catching up. Don't kid yourself, just because they get their house in order, don't expect them to be in a hurry to pass those savings from lower interest rates the government is giving them on to you. Wheat the feature as the rest of the world is caught nervous for supplies, 535, plus 26 3/4 and back to the area that should have held as support when we took the fall earlier. Corn up 10 1/4 to 345 1/2. Beans gain 17 3/4 to 843 with spot meal up 10 dollars amid fears that all those beans and meal in SA may not be able to be shipped in a timely basis. Rice appears to have finally rolled over, off 37 with a new spec caught for an extra 500 or so on the tops if my numbers are right. 1392. That still a long ways from where the commercials sold most of the futures.
Dow off 1007 futures, 19,853. Bonds down 5 points 21 tics, 167.31, to prove as of Wednesday the financials were still not liquid. Corn off 8 3/4 to 335 1/4 as fund sellers continue forcing out small spec longs, but I suspect they are about as short as they care to be. Rice up 34 to 1429 with more buying and a thin cash market. Beans held 1 1/4 higher , 825 1/2 with meal up 5 bucks, taking advantage of expected reductions in DDGs. Wheat up 9 to 508 1/4.