Corn off 2 1/4 to 384 1/4 on a back and fill day. Rice bull came for the market, 260 vs cash traded, and the spread roll has begun, with 10,000 more to go. 1366 1/2, plus 8. Beans off a couple cents to 893 and meal leaks a buck and a half. Wheat down 7 1/2 to 562 1/4 and global prices are slipping. Not a good time to stay long wheat to me. I had to do a double take as I was driving to Memphis and didn't see late trades in the dow, but it closed unchanged, 28,710, after being up well over 100 points, and bonds gained 30 tics to 162.08. You don't have to know much about trading to know that's not a good sign for the dow.
Tuesday morning brought a calmer global financial market and the bulls back to wall street. 229 higher Dow close, 28,710. Bonds leaked 23 tics to 161.10. Corn recovered Monday losses to 386 1/2, as exports continue to be reported and we have cheap corn. Plus six cents. Rough rice rebounds 11 1/2 to 1358 1/2. River short is still scrambling. Wheat was off 2 1/2 to 569 3/4, and beans off 2 1/4 to 895, but with steady meal.
China Flu spreads to all markets on Monday, with the Dow off 452 points, 28,481, and bond safety flight up another point and 12 tics to 162.01. Wheat got hit hard early, but recovered to 572 1/4, off only 1 1/4. Same story in beans with bounce back to 897 1/4, minus 4 3/4. Corn down to 380 1/2, losing 6 3/4. Rice down 11 1/2 to 1347 in a very hard to read trade. If commitments are in fact showing the funds to be hitting a size limited position, there is only so much trickery they can do with order flow. The calendar will take care of the rest.
Oats get hit for 13 cents. Corn down 6 1/2 and making the week a zero move. 387 1/4. Beans close 902, off 7 1/2 but meal only off 1/2 a buck. Wheat drops 7 to 573 1/2. Big fund long has to be sweating that position. Rice bull defends, net buying 1/3 of the volume, but still off 4 to 1358 1/2. Some new put trade there as well. Dow ends a soft week down another 194 to 28,933 and bonds up another point and 2 tics in the flight to the sidelines, 160.20.
Thursday corn gains a nickel to 393 3/4, taking out the 390 resistance on solid volume and reports of new export sales to a few locations. It helps that we are as cheap as anyone in the world. Wheat reversal didn't happen, 580 1/2, plus 2 3/4. Beans leaked another 4 1/4 to 909 1/2 with a big Brazil crop getting bigger and most believing China is done here until harvest. I'm not so pessimistic. Rice bull saw no selling and no volume, so took the opportunity to push higher again, 1362 1/2, plus 19. Bull programs work pretty darned well when there are solid fundamentals. But no doubt we are waaaaay over our skis right now. Dow off 13 points, 29,127, and bonds up another 24 tics, 159.18.
Corn up 1 1/4 in a quiet trade. Rice bull defends as expected, 1343 1/2, up a couple. Beans off 2 1/4 to 913 3/4 with some follow thru selling. Wheat may have put in a reversal, closing off 3 3/4 cents, 577 3/4. Dow off again Wednesday, 29,140, minus 39, and bonds got a 7 tic up bid, 158.26. Export sales delayed to Friday.
Computers sense some weakness in beans and push to 916, lower by 13 3/4, but meal only off a little over a buck, so the signal is the computers are churning. In fact, I would say the computer churn programs are running in most of the markets right now. No big moves on the week, just scare the weak longs or shorts out. Bonds recover all Fridays break to 158.19, plus a point and 10 tics. Churn. Corn breaks 12 Thursday and rallies 13 3/4 on Friday. Churn. Tuesday corn closes 387 1/2, off 1/3/4 and exactly last Wednesdays close. Churn. Rice bull lets the market break a dime to 1341 1/2, but you can expect some defending thru Wednesdays trade. Wheat up 11 to 581 1/2 with global firmness and a month to go to new deliveries. Dow off one hundred points, 29,179. Set up for a day of churn, probably on both sides of the fence.
Corn up 13 3/4 to 389 3/4, regaining all Thursday break and more. Rice up 18 1/2 to 1351 1/2 with 400 new calls being bought and 250 puts as well. Beans bounce 5 3/4 to 929 3/4, but meal was flat. Wheat also gains 5 1/4 to 570 1/2. Dow up 39 points to close the week 29,279 and bonds off 26 tics, 157.09.
Thursday trade was a good example of how little fundamental information matters to this market, unless the algorithmic systems want it to matter. Solid corn exports and a reasonable expectation that china will be taking products, but corn drops 12 cents to 375 1/2. Bottom of what I expected for the low end, with over 20K of new fund selling coming in to reestablish short positions. Cant tell you how low they might want to push downward, but china has to love our funds. Rice off 2 1/2 with more fund defending and 230 more vs cash. Beans off 4 3/4 to 924, but meal exports could not be overlooked and meal stood firm on the day. Oil will be taking its usual back seat moving forward in the crush this year if I have it figured right. The curve ball will be in place my march 18th if its going to be in play this marketing season. (Storage change and the carry spreads). Wheat off 8 but still above Monday, 565 1/4. Back to the broken record and dow melt up story, 29,240 and 211 higher. I've definitely left a pretty piece of change on the tale in the old IRA finding the sidelines early there. Glad you guys don't pay me for equities advice. Bonds slip back 13 tics but still pretty impressive holding power in the face of the stock market run, more like acceptance of long term lower rates than flight to quality.
Export sales are out, and tell an interesting story. Even with the recent wheat rally, we have solid sales and shipments. Corn sales and shipments are on the upswing, with nearly 800K metric tons of new sales. That's a solid number, not off the top, but solid and repeatable. 700K of new bean sales and 1.3 mil of ships is getting us ahead on my balance sheet enough that the USDA will have to recognize the drawdown of stocks sooner or later. 375K of new meal sales(marketing year high) help the bean demand pull as well. Even cotton put up some big numbers. The only real weak spot was rice, unfortunately as expected. We are just pricing ourselves out of the export market and are moving to the hand to mouth trade earlier than usual in a tight supply market. New sales 29K(marketing year low) and 13K of shipments can take the steam out of the cash market, if not the fund driven CBOT, although at some point the next sucker will be nowhere to be found and that will adjust as well.