Financials off heavy Friday again and that put a ceiling across the floor, with the Dow off 459 to end the week 30,912. Bonds closed up a point and 2 tics, 160.24, but had over 3 1/2 points of range. That's worth paying attention to in the bond room. May Corn traded off most of the day but found a bid and made it back to 547 1/2, off 2 1/4, with a 17K drop in open interest. May beans saw 1378 low but recovered to 1404 1/4, off 3 1/4. Meal still not helping and I don't trust oil led bean rallies for days, yet alone weeks. Wheat off 15 1/2 to 660 1/4 and new KC deliveries don't help that story much. Rice closes out the week 1304 1/2, down 6, and delivered current. OI in rice down to 9K. Everyone expects rice plantings to be off, but the question is how much.
Thursday exports were a disappointment across the board, and global buyers are balking at paying current prices. Everything gets hit hard early and recovers to manageable losses, but I think this market is due a rest. Corn off 4 1/2 to 554 3/4. Wheat down 8 1/2 after a solid bounce, 671 3/4. Beans close 1406, off 17 3/4 after setting a new high and breaking to 1391. Rice off 6 1/2 to 1280 1/2 and new receipts registered as we close full carry on the spread and we are delivered out of March already. Will be switching to May Ag reporting as we are now in March deliveries. Dow off 545 after setting a new high, 31,371, and bonds off a point and 27 tics to 159.22. they had a 157 handle at one time.
Wednesday trade firm, pull back, and firm up the close. I think the margin clerk had something to do with this round of strength, as OI gets hit hard going into deliveries, exposing the short that cant deliver. Normally its the long pushed out first. Corn up 5 1/2 to 559 1/4. Total corn open interest down 50K on the day. That's pretty big for an up day. Beans close 1423 3/4, plus 17 3/4. With a 20K drop in OI. Meal looked like it found a base, rallied strongly early, bud faded. Bean oil still carrying the water for the crusher, and he couldn't be happier. Wheat up 14 1/2 to 680 1/4. Rice up 3 1/2 to 1287 and we re into the total receipt count in volume left in March, so shouldn't see any fireworks there. Dow expands range again to 600 points and closes 424 higher, 31,916. Bonds off another 20 tics to 161.17, but that was a full point off the low.
Tuesday had some rumors of more china business, especially in the corn, and beans busted out of the top side of a flag we have building since early January. Meal finally caught a bid, and beans pushed up near contract highs, only to fade 19 cents to 1406, still 22 1/4 higher on the day, but a bit of a disappointing close to me. Corn up 2 3/4 to close 553 3/4, but 6 off the high. Wheat lower early but found a bid as well and closed up 1 3/4 cents, 665 3/4. Rice spread roll is pretty much done as OI is down to receipt levels, 1283 1/2, off 5 1/2 but some iceberg type buying again. Seems like some more commercial coverage to me. Not afraid of rice here, and normally just in front of carry deliveries you should be. Dow was a dog most of the day and had an expanded range of 500 points, but just like clockwork it found a bid and closed up 36 points, 31,492. Bonds still a dog and drop 7 tics, 162.05. Remember there is no inflation. Except in the biggest indicator in the world.
Monday trade lead by solid wheat bids, and wheat up 13 1/4 to close 664. EU total grain supplies, or lack thereof, finally getting some notice. Corn up 8 1/4 to 551. Corn OI off 15K to erase the gains in OI Friday. Meal still a drag to beans although it seemed to be putting in a floor trade, but beans still up 6 1/2 cents, 1383 3/4. If beans are going to set back going into deliveries, they better hurry up. Rice gains a couple with big spread roll and Open interest down to 1k, mostly done. 1289. Dow puts in a 400 point range, mostly lower, but closes 33 higher, 31,466. Its like they are programing you to buy every midday dip or something like that. When it gets easy to see, be careful what you are looking at. Bonds off another 23 tic, 162.12, another low close. This is happening as every talking head on TV wants you to believe interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future.
Nothing overwhelming in Friday export sales, and the cold snap is about to end. Wheat loses its weather sponsor, and falls to 650 3/4, off 11 3/4 to end the day. Corn backs up 7 1/2 to 542 3/4 and looked to have some new sellers helping to push. Beans close at the midpoint of a 22 cent churn day, 1377 1/4, plus 2 1/4. Oil strong and meal a drag. Rice had 416 vs cash trades and a 415 drop in OI, so cash is moving here. 1287, plus 14 and appears to be running into some selling overhead, at least for now. Dow had a typical Friday churn trade with a 2 point higher close, 31,433. Bonds continue the long slide down, 163.03, off 1.13.
Thursday trade a little muted as export sales delayed until Friday, and its February. Corn off 2 3/4 to 550 1/4 and some talk of the Illinois river frozen used as a drag on shipping. Meal a dog all day and dragging beans down 8 3/4 to 1375. Really not a bad performance by beans and I doubt meal can stay down. Wheat rekindled the winter kill story and Russian exports as well as Paris pricing all gave a solid floor to the churn machine, 662 1/2, plus 18 1/2. Standard spread roll in rice, 1273, off 1 1/2. Medium grain insurance came out at 7.47 and that has a little buzz going on the street. Dow was 300 lower but just widening the churn range for computers, 31,431 back to off 118 points on the close. Bonds looked higher and lower but close 164.16, plus 3 tics.
Not a lot to write about Wednesday trade. Wheat was a dog out of the box and stayed down, 644, off 13 1/2. Corn started lower but fought back to 553, plus 3/4. Beans off a penny, 1383 3/4, and at least meal caught a bid. Rice up 3 to 1274 1/2, but someone bought 100 April 1260 puts. As dead as rice options have been, I hate to see the movement in puts. Another quiet churn day in the Dow, 31,549, up 91, and bonds bounce 10 tics, 164.13.
Long weekend ended Tuesday morning with bids across most Ag. Corn up 13 1/2 to 552 1/4, but the buying was short covering from last week by funds with no conviction, yielding a 20 K reduction in open interest. Same story in beans, 1384 3/4, up 12 3/4, but OI drops16K there as well. Meal was a drag all day, but palm and bean oil are rocking. Wheat had new buyers pumped up on winter kill stories from the nasty weather currently affecting the entire Ag belt as we popped 20 3/4 to 657 1/2. This seems to happen every year on a cold spell and I wouldn't chase wheat.Dow looked up new highs and closed 61 higher, 31,458, but that was a couple hundred points off the high and kind of a sorry close to me. Bonds off another 2 points and 2 tics to 164.03.
Friday a bit of curious trade as corn drops 2 1/4 to 538 3/4 after trading 546. Can't really see too much to justify the trade other than weekend weather vs digesting the governments ideas of CO vs the general populaces. Rice off 8 cents, 1281 and mostly just churn trade to get the roll done. Beans a dime off the low, 1372, plus 4 1/2, and that's with weak meal all day long. Wheat picks up 3 1/4 to 636 3/4 with new shorts buying their way out and a 10K drop in OI. Dow has a small 200 point range, mostly lower, but like clockwork rallies late to 38 higher, 31,397. Bonds off a point and 3 tics in its continual lower march, 166.05. Big boats take a long time to turn, and this boat keeps on turning.