Happy Tuesday for farmers as ridge weather talk, bullish reports from the USDA, and record short fund positions all hit the fan at the same time. Switching to September futures for Ag, corn up 12 3/4 to 341 1/2. Beans close 877, plus 18 3/4. Even wheat gained 5 1/4 to 491 .3/4. This is an order flow market as we have been forecasting internally for the last week, so remember to trade accordingly. Sept rice dropped 11 1/2 to 1222 1/2, as 550 bu rice is getting consumed. Dow up 192 points, 25,689, and bonds slip 15 tics, 178.18.
Small ridge talk in the weather is all it took to pop corn 9 1/4 to 326 1/4. No deliveries in corn, rice, or beans helps the bull side as well. Beans up 1 1/2 on quiet trade, 866 1/2. Sept rice off 3 cents, 1234 as we prepare for what could be a bloody squeeze in July. Wheat gets a dead cat bounce to 485 1/2, plus 11 1/2, but realize wheat strength will be tied to corn more than wheat by my read. Dow chewed up Fridays losses for as 547 point gain, 25,497 and computer churn yet again. Bonds off 2 tics, 179.01.
Interesting trade Friday with great weather currently and forecast, reasonable but not thru the roof sales to china, and some of the bigger advisors recommending moving the rest of farmer cash. Still, Corn only gives up a quarter cent, 317. Spot oats gain 17 cents, 329. Peas in Canada are starting to get a squeeze on I'm told, but that's not really in my wheelhouse. Makes me think how a trap is being set. Beans off 4 1/4 to 865, still well above the 850 number that not too long ago was an upside target. And that is with meal giving up another 3 bucks. Corn acres will be down Tuesday, and bean acres will be up, question is how much. Wheat off 12 3/4 to 474, but we lost our favor with wheat some time ago. Still a buck forty above corn too. Sept rice off 1 1/2 to 1237, but some funny stuff in July OI. I expect rice acres Tuesday to be up, but if someone pulls a July squeeze that might take the headlines, and after all the futures monkey business, spot rice is where we marketed a solid piece of our year. Dow has another 800 point range, almost all to the negative Friday as we close 646 lower, 24,950, while bonds rally 28 tics to 179.03.
Export sales Thursday morning didn't have any surprises, and the market is soft with great weather. Corn off 7 to 317 1/4 and overdone by my read. Beans only off 1 1/2 cents, 869 1/4 and wheat gains 5 1/2 to 486 3/4. Sept rice still has a bull play, 1238 1/2, plus 11 1/2. Dow bounces 203 points, 25,596, but not much conviction. Bonds up 11 tics, 178.07.
Corn settled off 3/4 Wednesday, 324 1/4, but all the grains had a weak close. One of the leading advisors has suggested that the season top might be in. Beans off 4 1/4 to 870 3/4 and wheat drops 4 3/4 to 481 1/4. July rice down 12 cents, 1394 and Sept gained 2 to 1227. Dow got hit for 627 points, 25,393, and bonds gained 30 tics, 177.28.
Follow thru weakness in corn for Tuesday trade, 325, off 3 1/4, but a pretty decent close give early pressures and a favorable crop condition report along with great weather. Beans slip 1 1/4 to 875. More china sales, small and steady. Wheat gained another penny to 486. July rice up 6 cents, 1406, while Sept gained a dime. Fair amount of Sept/November spread trade and flat Nov selling. Dow had another near 800 point range but settles 67 higher, 26,020. Computer churn to the highest degree. Bonds give up 11 tics to 176.30.
Monday trade had a weekend of showers across the plains putting pressure on the corn, 328 1/4, off 4 1/4. Beans stable at 876 1/4, off 1/4. Wheat had a 3 3/4 cent bounce, 485. Rice dead at 14.00, off 2 but Sept is getting bid. Dow on fire for 485 points, 25,953, and bonds close 177.09, flat for the day.
Friday trade had opposing sides of a big fund short, china business, and the general cheap price of our Ag products vs. weekend weather with lots of moisture predicted. Corn gained 1 1/2 to 332 1/2 and OI went up, so its not just liquidation. Beans gain 3 1/2 cents, 876 1/2 with more china sales. Its not just china buying beans. Meals was soft. Wheat off another 2 1/4 to 481 1/4, but still a big spread to corn. July rice off 2 to 1402, and Sept gained 7. July rice is just a casino, and Sept rice is looking at acres thru a few different lenses. Dow had an 800 point range but closed off 370 as the early strength couldn't hold going into the weekend, 25,529. Bonds stable at 177.09, off 4 tics.
Bids still below the market Thursday in corn and beans, with corn gaining 3/4 to 331 and beans up 1 3/4 to 873. More rain in the forecast and the markets are taking that well. Wheat continues its drift lower, 483 1/2, minus 5 1/4. July rice off 50 1/2 to 1404, and my guess is there will be commercial buying from here on down. Sept trying to make 12-12.20 a range trade. Dow off 126 in a churn, 25,899, and bonds gain a point and 7 tics, 177.13.
Corn bounces 1 1/4 Wednesday to 330 1/4. Beans rally 4 1/4 as well, 871 1/4. Wheat continues its break to 488 3/4, off 7 1/4. Rice gets hit for 1.18 1/2 to 1454 1/2. 9 dollars a hundred off the recent highs. Just wow. Dow sets back 168 points, 26,025, and bonds rally 1/2 point(16 tics), 176.06.