Welcome back from a long weekend to a long Tuesday for the bulls. Aggressive planting over the weekend and more talks that Russia and Turkey will work together to get a shipping corridor for Ukraine, and really Russian grains to get flowing. I don't see how Ukraine can ship that much with their infrastructure damage, nor do I remotely believe in some of the current Ukraine corn acres being talked about. Think about sourcing and paying for corn inputs in America, then add a war into the mix. You would still plant almost as much corn as last year? Almost all of which you would need to export to get paid. It's such a comical assumption that I can't believe it's being floated, but you can't churn a market if you don't have two sides to the story. Of course, with a bunch of acres, we can start cutting yield because of lack of Fert, diesel, pesticides, herbicides, etc. About 5 well placed Russian snipers halts all the combines in their tracks. Are you hopping back into your machine after they pick off your neighbor Igor? Back to the day at hand, Wheat off limit by the close but no pool. 1087 1/2. I have no desire to push from below $11, nor do I think would any of the mature funds. Corn off 23 3/4 to 753 1/2. Truthfully a better close than I expected based on the day's trade. Beans down 49 to 1683 1/4 and meal at 414 is close enough to what I had expected last week. The churning ranges just got expanded. Get used to it. Plan for it and expect it. Rice on a 7 1/2 cent bounce and I can't find a reason for the bids. 1754 1/2. Dow churned around but off 187 at the end, 32,971, while bonds lost a point and 16 tics, 140.14.
Another strong day in the Dow Friday as we gain 558 points to 33,158 for nearly a 2000-point bump since last Fridays close. Bonds stable and up 8 tics, 141.30. Oats quietly back above 7 bucks, corn gains 12 1/4 to 777 1/4, and wheat up 14 1/4 to 1157 1/2. Rice up another 19 1/2 to 1747 and July open interest is still quite high. Whether it's just order flow or something more, flat price and spreads bear watching this week. Earlier I thought meal could test under $410, and here we are on Friday over $430. Needless to say, stronger than I expected. Beans held all of Thursday rally and close 1732 1/4, up 5 3/4 to close out the week. Should be a lot of the remaining acres planted this long weekend. Please take a moment to remember what this holiday is about and thank you to all who served.
Thursday trade led by beans firm all day and closing 45 1/2 better, 1726 1/2. Story is a big fund liquidated a 2 to 1 long corn and short bean spread, but open interest doesn't show any wholesale blowout. Wheat got pushed down to 1115 on Russia supposedly allowing an export corridor, but bounces all the way back to 1143 1/4, off only a nickel. Corn down 7 1/4 to 765 but the country is still bid. Rice picks up 20 cents on India discussing halting rice exports, 1727 1/2, and I believe it's a bit too early for that to happen, although I would almost expect it later in the year if there is any issue with the monsoon season. Dow strong all day and up 524 on the close, 32,600, and bonds holding in there, 141,22, off 5 tics.
Wednesday trade comparatively featureless as funds lighten up moving into the long weekend. I am surprised the markets are not getting hit a little harder given order flow, but it's kind of grabbing be into thinking we are moving from weaker hands to stronger hands in the grains. Basis in the country and at the gulf say this dog may be resting, but the hunt ain't over. Corn up 1/2 cent after being 17 lower, 772 1/2. Wheat closes down 6 1/2 cents, 1148 1/4 on a 30-cent bounce. 1681 beans are off a dozen on softer products, but meal holding better than expected. Rice off 9 to 1717 1/2, but still 7600 open in July and the spread found a bidder. Must watch that one. Dow in a good churn range and up 196 at the close, 32,076. Bonds holding quite well, 141.27, off only 2 tics.
Dow off 500 early and looking soft, but finds footing for another day of churn, 31,880, plus 41 on the day. Bonds gained a point and 19 tics to 141.29. Bond market isn't buying into FED speak right now, and it is a curious event to watch unfold. Wheat wacked for 35 1/4 to 1154 3/4 with rumors of some agreement of Russia letting grain get exported from Ukraine. This will probably happen in some form, but Russia is going to want back onto the monetary grid, and we will probably fold on that one. Corn followed wheat lower, and planting is progressing rapidly, 771 3/4, off 14 1/2. Beans gained 6 to 1693 with decent export demand and domestic crush, and meal has held better than I expected as well. Rice gave back Mondays rally, off 10 1/2 cents, 1716 1/2.
Monday trade has a solid Dow bounce from what appeared to be a floor set last week. 31,839, plus 626 points on the day. Bond options expired Friday and today we get a point and 15 tics break, 140.10. Wheat had a predictable 21 1/4 rally from Friday's markdown, 1190. Corn up 7 1/2 cents, 786 1/4. Rice closed 1727, up 10 1/2 but off the highs and not the volume I'd like to see. Was some vs cash. India still the curveball there. Meal soft and beans give up 21 1/4 to 1687.
Friday had wheat getting pressure again, 1168 3/4 close, off 31 3/4 and on the lows. If you ever wanted to see a textbook painting of the market for the weekly chart, you just saw it. Corn off 4 1/2 in tow, 778 3/4, but a much tighter range with a stronger domestic pull. Meal up to 430 and oil has a bid again, so beans gained another 14 3/4 cents to close the week 1705 1/4. Rice had a small buyer, 1716 1/2, up 18 and back to Tuesdays close. Dow had a 1000 point range but closes up 11 tiny points, another reflection of who is making the money(computer churn systems) and who is getting chewed up in the process(anyone who trades with any emotion). Buy high, kiss your money goodbye, sell low, no more money to blow. Bonds gain another point and 6 tics to 141.25, really the upper end of where I thought it would be possible to go. Next week we either set back solidly, or we need to re-evaluate what long term debt looks like, not what the Fed wants you to believe. It appears to me that two very powerful and opposing forces are at work in the Debt market, and when the elephants dance, the grass gets trampled. Us commoners are grass.
Thursday export sales a strong surprise in beans and meal, soft everywhere else. Meal strong all day and beans up 27 3/4 to end the day 1690 1/2. Rice bounce got half of Wednesday break back, 1698 1/2, plus 17 1/2. Wheat off again with confirmation that India will allow 1.8 million tons of port placed and bound wheat to be shipped, Still 12 bucks, but off 30 1/4. Corn pressed lower early, but bounced a dime on real buying and closed up 1 3/4 cents, 783 1/4. Dow off another 238 but finding its feet, 31,202, while bonds looked briefly over 142 but set back to only 9 tics higher on the close, 140.19.
Wednesday trade led lower by the Dow, off 1141 points with no real bounce thru the day, 31,440. That's a drag on everything. Bonds bounce a point and 21, back into an area that should act as resistance, 140.10. Wheat gives back 46 3/4 of the weeks buck rally, 1230 3/4. Rice off 35 1/2 as well and into stronger buying, 1681. Corn drops 19 1/4 to 781 1/2. Bean oil off 294 points as the expected reopen of Indonesian palm looms and beans held up pretty well again, 1662 3/4, off 15 1/4.
Computers rule the day Tuesday all over the street. Another ideal day to realize what you are really competing against, if you are willing to see it. Dow up 422 to 32,581 because that's the path of least resistance. Bonds off a point and 8 tics, 138.21. Wheat rallied thru the day 80 cents from the lows and closed 30 higher, 1277 1/2. Buy low, sell high. Not as easy as it sounds, but every time you trade, you need to ask yourself, where does this trade fall in the buy low, sell high mantra. Beans catch up a bit with another 21 1/2 cent gain, 1678, mostly with out products help. Corn gives back 8 3/4 to 800 3/4. Rice has a buck 15 range as the computer sees the buyer isn't willing to defend. I would guess some of the trailing stops guys got churned and burned. 1716 1/2 close, off 66 cents. Not a game for the faint of heart, Tuesday, or any other day this year.