Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
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    • CASE 1845 C
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today's thoughts

Friday

8/5/2022

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Friday trade was more of a catch your breath and reassess the weeks positions, with beans holding Thursday bounce and august meal trading $516 for a new high before falling hard.  Oil found a bid to make the crush whole, and beans closed 1463 1/4 for a 2 cent gain.  Corn picked up 8 to 610 1/4 but open interest was off 6K and that's not a sign of new money.  Wheat looked higher early but couldn't hold and we leaded down to 775 3/4, off 6 3/4.  rice up 1 1/2 to  1734 but a 325 contract pop in open interest sure didn't buy much gain.  Long fund can't be happy with those results.  Dow rallied nearly 300 from the lows to close 32,757, up 76 points, while bonds tanked for 2 points and 15 tics, 141.07. 
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Thursday

8/4/2022

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Nothing exciting in exports Thursday morning, but rumors of up to 3 vessels to china fuel Sept beans to 1461 1/4, plus 57 1/2.  Aug meal up $32 and Sept meal gains $22.   That's with some meal deliveries out of Owensboro.  Be interesting to watch those as the delivery cycle proceeds.  Wheat up 18 3/4 to 782 1/2, and corn gains 10 3/4 to 602 1/4.  Sept/Dec corn spread still at a 4 cent discount.  Rice buyer added over 200 new longs to the market as we gain 26 1/2 cents to 1732 1/2.  I wish it was more broadly based buying.  Dow in a small range churn day, 32,681, off 89 points while bonds gain 27 tics, 143.22. 
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Wednesday

8/3/2022

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Wednesday trade just a feeling out of where the systems can push all around the street.  Wheat looked at the 750 support and bounced back to 763 3/4, still off 11.  Corn checked out lower and came all the way back to 591 1/2, plus 1/4.  Meal took a break from the leading role and beans off a dozen, 1403 3/4.  Rice buyer came to the dance, 1706, plus 28 1/2 and a bit less selling than I would have expected.  Story out of India with up to 13% less rice acres.  Dow recovered all of Tuesday break, 32,770, up 405, and bonds probed lower but again recovered most all the move, 142,27, off 4 tics. 
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Tuesday

8/2/2022

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Tuesday just a bleed off, risk off day.  Dow hit for 402 points, 32,365, as Pelosi pokes the bear by dropping into Taiwan.  Bonds off a point and 23 tics as well, 142.31.  Wheat the worst for wear, 774 3/4 off 25 1/2 and there is a lot of hope that Ukraine shipments will accelerate.  I still believe that getting full loaded ships out of there will happen, but not so sure the owners would put the vessel back into harms way.  This trade is another example of why I hate the long side of CBOT wheat futures, but that said, I would not be getting short down here.  Harvest will not fix the globes food shortage, just make people forget about it for a few convenient weeks.  Beans off 16 1/4 to 1415 3/4, and corn down 15 3/4 cents, 591 1/4. Corn and wheat open interest up a pretty good amount, so the short systems are getting more comfortable to run right now.   Rice did get a 11 1/2 cent bounce, 1677 1/2. 
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Monday

8/1/2022

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Monday brings in a new month, and a softer and gentler weather system.  Grains responded with weakness with Sept beans off 55 1/4 to 1432 and the products weak as well.  Rice closes 1666, off 22 1/2 and down to where it looks like cash will trade to the river.  Corn off 9 1/4 to 607 but with a decent bounce from early lows.  Same story in wheat, 800 1/4, off 7 1/2 but nearly 20 off the lows.  The first vessel of old corn shipped out of Ukraine to much fanfare, but the questions surrounding movements in the future aren't too rosy.  I'm thinking if I owned that vessel I'd be happy to participate in getting it out, but not to sure I'd send it back in.  To quote an old rice trader, "I don't want no cheese, just let me out of the trap."  Dow off 58 in a churn day, 32,767, and bonds gain another 22 tics, 144.22. 
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