Monday trade has month end shuffling and rain in SA as a few key features to put some pressure in Ag. Beans got hit for 23 1/4 to 1168 1/2. Rice down 12 cents, 1255 1/2, and up well from the stop driven lows. Switching to march for corn and wheat, corn off 7 3/4 to 4.26. Wheat drops 21 to 585. Dow was soft in a 245 point drop, but really just churn trade, 29,629. March bonds DOA, 174.29, off 4 tics.
Delayed export sales Friday morning had solid wheat and corn sales, great bean, meal, and rice shipments. Corn closed 5 1/2 higher, 425 1/2, and wheat gained 8 1/4 to 596 1/2. We will be switching to March corn and wheat futures as deliveries start with Mondays close. Beans gained 7 3/4 to 1191 3/4. Not at all ready to roll over. Rice up 23 as more buying surfaced to move us past the 1250 area selling, 1267 1/2. We know the commercial will pay 5.75 to keep the pipeline moving so this pop is not surprising, but it will take more work from 575 on without a new export player. I was very happy to see Venezuela in for 30K in one shipment. Dow had a 300 point churn day and closed 46 higher, 29,874. Bonds gained a full point to 173.28. Need a few more days to believe there is a confidence that the financials will stay stable. I still expect more fireworks between now and Jan 20.
Pre-holiday trade Wednesday with dead bonds, 172.28, minus 1 tic, and a Dow churn where they looked at the highs early and closed off 170 points, 29,828. Deliveries just around the corner in wheat and corn and the Wheat got hammered for 23 cents late, 588 1/4. Clearly overdone but something to keep an eye on as far as global indications or just thin trading. Corn closes 420, down 5 3/4. over 33k of Dec, OI unwind. I would note that there isn't much OI left in Dec wheat or corn so that ship has mostly sailed. Beans off 7 1/4 in a mild pullback, 1184. Rice gets a 100 lot buyer to double the whole days volume very late, post settlement pricing actually, so we settle 5 1/2 higher, 1244 1/2. Curious if there is something in delayed exports, or just a fat finger trade.
Weak early grains on Tuesday as rumors of China washing out or cancelling a few soy cargoes was enough to get some of the late to the dance longs looking for the sidelines. By the end of the day almost all the drop was recovered, but for the next little while, if the market gets ahead of itself, expect cancellation rumors to resurface. Corn off a dime and closes off 3/4 cent, 425 3/4. Beans only give up a 1/4 to close 1191 1/4 after recovering 17 cents. Wheat strong all day on sales and spread unwind, 611 1/4, plus 12 1/2. Rice off a nickel, 1239, in another quiet day. Rice Mills still trying to price JFH deliveries against Jan futures. Some of the McGehee receipts did get cancelled. Dow put on a bull display to 29,998, plus 452, and bonds leaked 18 tics, 172.29.
No new rain over the weekend in SA gave Ag a bid as beans trade $12 highs, and close 1191 1/2, plus 10 1/2. Note that meal and oil both faded and didn't help hold the close. Watch the whole basket. Corn gained 3 1/4 to 426 1/2. Wheat even closed 5 1/2 higher, 598 3/4. Strong Dow helped as well, 29,546, up 334, and bonds leak 19 tics, 173.15.
Friday trade soft in the Dow, 29,212, off 231 but really just a churn day lower. Bonds up 26 tics to 174.02. Liquidation grain trade in front of December deliveries and the upcoming holiday, declared but you aren't supposed to participate. CoCo don't you know. Corn open interest off 15k and still up 3/4 cent, 423 1/4. Wheat OI dropping as well to clean up DEC positions and up 1 1/2 to 593 1/4. Beans close 1181, up 3 1/2. Another pretty quiet day in rice, 1246 1/2, plus 2 1/2.
Thursday exports good enough in Ag to allow a quiet, catch your breath trade as ownership gets slowly shuffled around. Soft early trade had no follow thru as I believe any spec selling is getting met with shorts wanting out. Wheat was and should continue to be the softest leg, 591 3/4, minus 6. Corn gave up 3 1/4 to 422 1/2. Beans got back to higher on the day, 1177 1/2, plus 1 3/4. Another low volume day in rice, 1244, off a penny. We are at a point in rice where the sellers are willing to operate, and the buyers would rather pay small overs for their short term cash needs than bid the board, and wind up with McGehee receipts. Dow looked lower in a churn trade but closed 52 higher, 29,443. Bonds act like they have stabilized for now, which is a massive relief to me. 173.08, plus 23.
Positive Ag trade Wednesday with a flash to unknown for corn, 425 3/4, up 5 1/2. Beans gained 6 to 1175 3/4, but that close was 14 cents off the highs set earlier in the day, and meal gave no assistance. Market wants to catch its breath. Wheat picked up 2 1/2 for a 597 3/4 settle. Rice gained 12 in the first day in a while of any volume, and with 200 of verses cash. Not big volume, just some volume. 1245. Mills are still quietly paying overs to keep supplied, so the cash demand is still there, but no one wants ant extra inventory. Dow set back 329 points, 29,391, and bonds closed off a tic, 172.17.
Decent day in Ag Tuesday as beans push up to new highs and close 1169 3/4, plus 16 1/4. Corn up 4 as well, 420 1/4. Wheat off 2 3/4 to 595 1/4 in a nothing day. Rice gains a nickel in another sleeper with very low volume, 1233. Dow pauses its recent rally, 29,720, off 145, and bonds gain 21 tics, 172.18.
After a look a little softer Monday, corn found its footing and closed 5 3/4 higher, 416 1/4. Wheat up 4 1/2 to 598, and beans churned around but closed 1153 1/2, plus 5 1/2. Rice was a little soft, 1228, minus 9, as trade is quiet and bins are drying. Big picture in grains goes back to the globe just doesn't have the food buffer countries are wanting to have, and as long a China keeps buying, there will be less for the rest. Dow up 455 to 29,865 and bonds slip 9 tics, 171.29.