Halloween Monday brings Russia talking shutting down the corridor, and there are over 100 vessels in transit in and around Ukraine ports and in the Black sea. Wheat pops 53 higher, 882 1/4. Corn up 10 3/4 to 691 1/2 after testing 7 bucks. Beans gain 19 1/4 as well, 1407 and there is room in the crush for that bounce even without meal. Rice shorts are stuck and we rip for 43 1/2 on the day, 1656, really without much of the funds getting out. Could be a bloody few days for the newer inexperienced rice selling funds. Dow sets back 121 after a killer strong week last week, and bonds give up 24 tics, 120.16.
Dow was a rocket all day Friday with lots of new money headed into the financials pre-election, 32,896, up 822 points on the day. Over 3000 points in the last 2 weeks. Not sure what global problems got solved in the last two weeks, but when the time is right I'm sure we will be told. Bonds slip a point and 3 tics, 121.08. First intentions in Nov beans and a slug of open interest unwinds pretty smoothly. 440 new receipts registered, and we close 5 1/2 higher, 1387 3/4. Nov rice gets a 11 1/2 cent bounce to 1612 1/2 as well with only 428 delivered and nothing new registered, in fact, 250 cancelled for shipment. Not what the bear funds wanted to see. We will be switching to Jan Beans and rice moving forward. Corn off 1 1/2 to 680 3/4, and wheat slips 9 1/4 to 829 1/4.
Exports solid in beans and wheat to start Thursday trade, but wheat faded 20 from the highs to close 2 lower, 838 1/2, and beans lost the rally as well, 1282 1/4, up 1/2 cent. Rice bear at it again but little result, 1601, off 2 and feeling like we are placing this wave low. Corn exports soft and we give up 2 3/4 to 682 1/4. We need to clean up November rice and bean futures positions in front of next weeks deliveries today. Dow continues the upward move, 32,074, 202 higher, and bonds up another 28 tics, 122.11, four full points above Monday close.
Wednesday trade mostly just chop. Argentina wheat production officially reported off even more from their ongoing drought and we tested technical 824 support and bounced, 840 1/2, plus 5 3/4. Corn off 1 1/4 to 685 in a quiet trade and beans close off 1/4 after looking higher most of the day, 1381 3/4. Rice still pushing out weak longs going into delivery, 1603, off 15 1/2. Lower than I thought they could push it, but they are firing more sell side bullets than I thought they would. Margin clerk stops helping the sell side after Monday. Has me concerned if the funds loose their bullish flavor in the other grains. Dow off 5 points, 31,872, and bonds gain a point and 13 tics, 121.15.
Weird day to get much out of Tuesday. Talk that the FED will be intervening in the bonds put a bid across the financials, with bonds up a point and 24 tics, 120.02, while the Dow moved up another 332 points to 31,877. I'm thinking someone needs to give them a hand with how quantitative tightening works, or maybe we need to recognize that it wont work. Beans got a dime bounce to 1382 and corn up 4 3/4 to 686 1/4. Rice off a nickel, 1618 1/2, as we have unwound almost all of Nov futures and wheat down 4 to 834 3/4. Should see a decent export sales number Thursday with bigger volume out of the PNW for beans, but what effect will moving all those cars with beans and meal have on all the other lesser priced crops that are use to using those facilities be? Our rail issues are not behind us yet.
Nothing crazy over the weekend so Monday brought follow thru strength in the Dow, up another 422 points, 31,545, while bonds slip another 26 tics, 118.10. That loose money didn't spill over to the grain room with beans off 23 1/2 cents, 1372. Hearing big numbers shipped to PNW via rail in soy complex, so that break was a bit harsh. That said, you can bet there will be deliveries next Monday on the November soy contract and with the river down, who wants to write that check. Lots of November soy longs just selling out. Wheat off a dozen and news out of Ukraine isn't bearish as to the terrible expected planting of winter wheat. 838 3/4 and I'm not in any hurry to push wheat down from here.. Corn off 2 3/4 to 681 1/2. Rice bear hits again building another 150 new shorts but Nov open interest down to 2100 already, so we should get a cleaner read by Thursday. 1623 1/2, off 12 1/2.
Friday solid in the Dow all day and getting stronger by the close, 31,123, plus 770. Bonds dropped another point and 10 tics to 119.04. Beans were lower early but meal helped lead us back to 4 higher, 1395 1/2. We lost 20K in open interest with options expiration and I expect the Nov/Jan spread to widen from the 9 under that it sets at now given river and freight conditions. Wheat up 1 1/4 to 850 3/4, and corn plus 1/4 rolling into another weekend of harvest, 684 1/4. 8800 jump in open interest on the day. Rice off 9 and weaker in Jan as the fund push where they can. We need more exports any time now, but the domestic pull is higher than it ever has been. Commitments has commercials a net long rice futures in October. Wow.
Thursday export sales strong in beans and Dow opened firm, setting the tone for some buying systems. Beans closed up 19 cents, 1391 1/2. Funny that soy lost 15K of open interest in the bump. Does not build confidence. Wheat gained 8 to 849 1/4, and corn picked up 5 3/4 to 684. Rice fund selling kept up the pressure , 1645, off 3 1/2. We dropped 340 of open interest, so a long gave up and a short re-owned. Dow 300 higher early but turned into just another computer churn day and settled off 107 points, 30,353. Bonds off another point and 15 tics to 120. 14. Months ago this was my target, but given today's financial environment, I'm not comfortable calling this any kind of a floor. Quick glance says we can drop another 16 full points if we wash out.
Wednesday trade soft all around with no real leadership. As everyone has been watching the financials, the Dow churned higher and lower but mostly just generated commissions and noise, 30,460, off 116. Bonds down to 121.29, off a full point and 21 tics. Wheat slips another 8 1/4 to 841 1/4, while corn fairs better, 678 1/4, minus 2 3/4. Beans looked below 1360 early but held and bounced, 1372 1/2, plus 1/2. Rice off 5 1/2 to 1648 1/2 and the bear is looking for someone else to push from here.
Dow continued its run up Tuesday, 30,576, plus 346 but down from over 600 points higher early in the day. Bonds looked lower but recovered to 123.18, plus 6. It will be interesting to see Wednesday if we are basing or topping. Wheat a dog again. 849 1/2, off 11 1/2 and getting to the lower part of the computer range without something positive happening in Russia. Beans off 13 1/4 to 1372 and river freight as well as no new China sales flashes allow us to leak lower as harvest continues. Corn down only 2 1/2 and held the best of the grains, 681. Rice down another 13 as the short funds continue to get shorter, witnessed by open interest increases. Commitments in rice on Friday could very well show an offset to commercial like we haven't seen in a long time, and I suspect that there will bee another 550 commercial longs in November created by options expiration. Sets up for a volatile next week.