Wednesday Ag trade looking at month end., quarter end, Stocks, and perspective plantings. Lots of room for a curve ball and the market did not disappoint. Stocks came in about as expected, but planting intentions had corn and bean acres way low. Limit bid was the result, with beans 70 higher locked, 1436 3/4. Meal and oil locked or bumping against limits as well. Corn went limit up, 564 1/4, plus 25 and synthetically more than a dime higher than that. Maybe with fewer projected corn plantings, nitrogen will stop its price increases. Wheat got dragged along as a feed product, 618, up 16 1/4. Nothing exciting in the wheat numbers. Rice acres were slightly higher than expected and futures languished 4 lower, 1318. A guy on the fence between rice and beans in the delta just got another push away from rice. Financial markets had a boring throw away day, Dow off 27 in a relatively tight range, 32,898, and bonds slip 14 tics, 154.19
Tuesday trade softer than I expected as we roll into the reports tomorrow and longs are looking for the door. We have been expecting a setback, but now over half of the expected risk has already taken place. Wonder if the reports are sell the rumor and buy the fact, or is there a bigger range than I expect? Computers sure are good at moving the herd either way. Corn off 7 1/2 to 539 1/4. Wheat an added drag and off 15 cents, 601 3/4. Oil drops limit again and drags beans 26 1/4 lower, 1366 3/4. Meal held unchanged. Rice spread roll started and futures slip 4 1/2 to 1322. Dow looks higher and churns lower, 32,925 close, minus 107. Bonds look lower and churn higher, 155.01, plus 8 tics.
Monday corn off 5 3/4 to close 546 3/4, giving back Friday gains. looked like it might be worse, but wheat found a footing and bounced nearly a dime to 616 3/4, up 3 1/2 on the day. Beans were off 7 1/2 cents, 1393, with meal again a dog and bean oil finding a bid to get 48 higher. I get the oil story, but cheap meal, big feeder prices, and a hog setback in pricing that doesn't seem to want to occur, and I have to believe that at some point we are going to realize that there isn't enough meal to get us to new crop without rationing. Off my soapbox. Rice up 18 to 1326 1/2 on another nothing day. 10-20 cents is nothing in rice futures these days, but the cash guys seem pretty well set in their ways, at least for now. Dow looked a couple hundred lower but then wanted new highs and closed up 78 points, 33.032. Bonds rolled over, again, and dumped a point and 6 tics with not too much effort. 154.25.
Friday trade in corn recovers Thursday break, 552 1/2, plus 6. Wheat up 3/4 to 613 1/4. Both just computer churn as we watch OI drop leading into the big Wednesday reports. Rice off 6 1/2 in dead trade, 1308 1/2. Bean oil limit down and dragging beans 13 3/4 lower, 1400 1/2. Meal closed near flat. Dow lit up the board Friday, pausing thru the day, looking for sellers and when none appeared, pushing up to the next level. 32,954 close for a 453 point gain to close out the week. Bonds slipped 23 tics, 155.31.
Thursday exports were strong in corn, yet we faded 6 3/4 to 546 1/2. I thought bean and meal numbers were fine for this time of year, still surprised how much meal we are shipping and the lack of Chinese cancellations, but oil goes limit down, dragging beans 18 1/2 lower, 1414 1/4. Meal was $3 higher, and we are still talking about $14 beans. Its unlikely that the oil market is finished for the year, or any of the soy complex for that matter, but markets sure seem tired going into a big report day on the 31st. Cant rule out a nice 8-10 percent pullback. Already did it in oats and wheat as we speak. Wheat down again, 612 1/2, off 12 1/2. In wheat, we have to be looking at feed values and the meats pricing is surely not culling the herds. Rice down 24 1/2 as the buyer took a day off and the seller pushed, erasing Wednesday gains. 1315 settle. Dow looked lower, but rallied strong to close 32,501, plus 182, while the bonds didn't do much, 156.22, off 2 tics.
Markets are counting the days to the end of the month reports, and global wheat is softening. Board wheat off a dime, 624 3/4. Corn looked lower but solid buying brought us 2 higher, 553 1/4. Beans up 9 1/2 to 1432 3/4 and country basis getting stronger as commercials try their best to get what is left away from the farmers bin. Rice up 18 1/2 to 1339 1/2 and the buyer tried to trap a few more sellers, then went ahead and moved the bar higher. would expect a back and fill, but rice has some kind of story in the background, including acres reduction. Dow up 13 points, 32,319, but that was 350 off the high and a weak close. Bonds gain another 19 tics, 156.24
Tuesday trade firm out of the box in Ag, but really just a solid churn day for the computers. Corn closes up 2 1/4 to 551 1/4. Wheat solid all day and even after a back off we still close 7 1/2 higher, 634 3/4. Beans up 5 3/4 to 1423 1/4. Rice in a dead day, 1321, off 1/2. Nothing to get too excited about in ag as we approach the big report on the 31st. Dow gets hit for 313 points, 32,306, and bonds up another 29 tics, 156.05.
Monday trade just looking for news to feed the bulls. Quiet corn weekend and commitments had the large spec adding to an already long position, so the bears pushed, 549, off 8 3/4. Bean oil limit bid, which put pressure on meal to keep crush numbers in line, putting meal off $11 for the day, and beans up only 1 1/4 to 1417 1/2. Bean oil is approaching more resistance to me from here on, and although I wouldn't try to call a top, oil has a way of spiking and bleeding off. If oil slips, meal should benefit, but the whole soy complex could get soft if oil rolls over. Wheat done looking lower and a tight range day left us 1/4 higher, 627 1/4. Rice up 7 in quiet trade, 1321 1/2. Dow looked lower early but closed up 116 points, 32,619, pulling back most of Fridays leak. Bonds up a point and 5 tics, 155.08, and trying desperately to put in a base.
Solid recovery in most grains from the computer selling Thursday brought, as they couldn't get anymore sellers to play along. More china corn sales and corn bounces 11 1/4 to 557 3/4. Meal gets footing and gains $9, while beans are up 24 cents on the day, 1416 1/4. Rice gets a nice 11 1/2 cent bounce to 1314 1/2 and at least one of my indicators is getting friendly. I can make a case for dull rice trade thru the summer, but I can also make a case for a 50-70 cent bounce. Wheat off 3 1/2 to 627 in a nothing day. Dow backs up to close the week 32,503, off 262 and bonds look higher but fade to only 3 tics better on the day, 154.03, over a full point off the highs.
Thursday opened with solid exports to me, but market thought otherwise as the computer churn machine went looking for sell stops. Corn off 11 1/2 to 546 1/2 with 18K in position pukes. Rice gives back the Wednesday rally, 1303, minus 18 1/2. Wheat continues the leak as the softest global grain, 630 1/2, off 9 1/2, but don't forget it can become feed. Meal and oil soft at the same time, so beans get pushed down 25 1/2 to 1392 1/4. Dow sets new highs but backs off 350 points, and 139 lower on the day close, 32,765. Bonds set a new low and bounce near a point to 154 even, off a point and 5 tics.