Lots of things to move the market Friday. Acres, stocks, deliveries, weather, Lack of options coverage because of July expiration, the list goes on and on. Still no deliveries in corn, meal, or beans. Rice receipts all sucked up first day and someone still has to come up with more physical. Acreage report just lost 2 million grain acres and another 2 million switched from beans to corn. Stocks lower than expected across the grains. Rain in the corn belt for the weekend forecast. Acres trumped all other #s as beans rip for 77 1/4 cents to the upside, 1557 1/4. Meal up $17 and bean oil limit bid. 1805 1/2 rice is 35 better and no volume. Corn shelled for 26 1/2 as we break to account for a crazy high acreage number, but that number will have to be used in the next WASDE. 554 1/2 July and DEC trades down to 494. Wheat off 16 3/4 to 636 1/4. What a day. Dow continues the bounce, 34,643, plus 290 while bonds rally 24 tics, 126.29.
Thursday pre report trade as well as first intentions clean up. Interesting that we had no corn or bean deliveries. 200 rice came out, 100 of that new. There are still 300 July to be reconciled so tomorrow could get interesting in all the Ag front months. Wheat will work from carry as expected. Corn slipped 9 to 581 with the funds wanting to push Dec below 533 but July beans were quite firm, 1483, plus 32. Nov was about flat. Wheat off 2 3/4 to 653. July rice up 22 cents, 1770 1/2 but minus 7 Sept continues its leak, abet with more volume and a much tighter range. Call based 3 ways traded so someone is finding value here. I don't expect much in the numbers for corn and beans but would not be surprised to see 70K more LG rice acres found. I think new crop is pricing that as we speak. Dow up 252 as we establish a new base to work from, 34,353. Bonds hit for 2 full points and 3 tics, 126.05 with inflation not going away and the FED almost forced to raise in July. Acres and stocks at 11.
Wednesday trade pretty ugly in the grain room with beans hit the worst, 1451, off 44. Corn down 33 to 590 and wheat off 29 1/4 cents, 655 3/4. July rice down 19 to 1748 1/2 but new crop Sept broke a full dollar, closing off 68 and we really didn't see any capitulation volume trade out of it. Exports Thursday morning then we will go back to positioning and liquidating in front of Fridays agency reports and July deliveries. Churn day again for the Dow, 34,101, off 82 points while bonds gain 22 tics, 128.08.
Monday Tuesday trade in disguise? Corn off 14 1/4 to 623. Dec corn off 27 and corn drops 35K of open interest in a day. Wheat hit for 39 1/4 cents, 685. I never trust a wheat rally. Beans give back Mondays 26 to 1495. Meal rallies cant hold. Rice off 26 1/2 to 1767 1/2. New crop rice seems to struggle to push up anymore. Every grain lost open interest. Part July unwind and part sucker buyers fleecing. Crop conditions pretty miserable for this kind of break. Crop conditions better than the rally we had going in. Computers are happy that they can flop Ag around this much. I don't think they will magically just stop the dance now that they saw how easy it is to churn us around. Dow based and up 212 to end Tuesday 34,183 while bonds slip 17 tics, 127.18.
Not as much rain over the weekend gives Monday a bit more room for the bulls to run, with corn up 6 1/2 to 637 1/4 and beans popping 26 1/2 to 1521. Russia civil war over in a blink and wheat faded 9 to 724 1/4. Rice got another 24 cent bounce, 1794 and working the $18 handle. Dow churn trade, 33,971, off 6 points and bonds gain 6 tics, 128.03.
Friday action led by weather and options expiration. More moisture in the forecast hits corn the most, 630 3/4, off 29 3/4. Pinned the 630s for expiration. Wheat off 5 3/4 to 733 1/4 with the Russia conflict stirring in Ukraine and a bit of a civil war boiling in Russia itself. Meal off again and soy loses 6 cents, 1494 1/2. Nov hit for 29. Rice up 9 to 1777 so after most of the July options saw daylight, almost all of them expired worthless. Good for the trader/writer, bad for the owner. Again. All the grains had sharp drops to July open interest as we spend the next week pricing ourselves into deliveries and June 30 reports. Dow off 233 points, 33,977 with the normal Friday buying subdued by Russia risks. Bonds up 29 tics, 127.29 in a back and forth trade all week.
Thursday trade muted by increased rain opportunities in the forecast. Corn slips 10 1/2 to 660 1/2. Beans down 14 1/4 to 1500 1/2. Meal couldn't hold the rally, as expected and put a drag on soy. Bean oil did seem to base. 739 wheat was a 4 1/2 cent winner with more talk of shortfalls in India and China as well as the Russia corridor issues. I have trust issues with wheat. Rice picked up another 16 to 1761 as we play with options expiration. Looking to see what strike they decide to pin. Open interest in rice compared to options allows for some goofy things to happen for Friday close but depending on how it plays out, next week action a well. We might see outsized action around the strikes in all the grains for Friday trade. Dow lower most of the day in standard churn trade, 34,210, minus 25 points at the end while bonds loose a point and 5 tics to 127 even with the global bankers stirring the higher rates tax on anyone with debt talk.
Fund Ag buying continued Wednesday with dry conditions in the I states and corn belt in general gaining new longs by the hour. India is going to have a short wheat crop at this point, question is how short and wheat happy to be up another 38 3/4 to 734 1/2. Corn trades 671, plus 27 1/4. Beans rip 37 1/2 higher, 1514 3/4, as some months of meal see limit up, partially on oil seeing limit down. 1745 rice is 26 higher and chasing back to the 1760 options. Dow fades 121 points, 34,235 as Powell is talking about more intervention domestically and globally to halt inflation. Bonds up 3 tics in strange trade, 128.05.
After a long weekend Tuesday morning weather found no extra moisture so the bulls have room to continue the run. Wheat up 7 3/4 to 695 3/4 while corn picks up 3 1/2 cents, 643 3/4. Beans gain 10 3/4 to 1477 1/4. Rice 1760 options get full and we push 60 cents lower in the front, 1719 while Sept is bid. Be hard to spend much time below $17 to me. Dow off 248 points, just pushing back into the lower areas of churn range, 34,356 so far, and bonds up 23 tics, 128.02.
Friday strong with the grain room pricing a drier forecast and funds moving from short to long. Wheat up 26 1/2 to 688 and corn picks up 17 cents, 640 1/4. Beans get a 38 1/4 pop, 1466 1/2. Meal finally found its feet. Hope its more than a one day occurrence. Rice gains 5 1/2 to 1779 1/2 and options will have an outsized effect on July rice all next week so be cautious or be out. Dow gives back 120 points of the solid Thursday rally, 34,604 and bonds slip 14 tics, 127.11.