Friday trade influenced by news and worries of Russia-Ukraine military advances. Wheat up 26 1/4 to 797 3/4, near the top side of the trading box. Corn along for 9 1/4 to 651. Beans picked up 8 3/4 in a bit of strange back and forth trade, 1583. Rice short came out of the recent downside push, 1521, plus 41 1/2. You have to wonder sometimes who programs these computer systems, and who finances the noise they create. Dow off 512 as sidelines look to be a safer place for the weekend, 34,627, and bonds gain a full point, 152.21.
Pretty solid exports in soy complex and rice Thursday morning, and CONAB brought out the big guns slashing Brazil soy production to 125. Bulls couldn't ask for anything more, and responded with a soy run to 1633, then a break down to 1574 1/4 close, off 20 1/2. Ouch! Added 12K of new suckers to the game as well. Rice couldn't get anything going early and seller pushed down another 29 cents, 1479 1/2. Corn closed 20 off the early highs, and a nickel lower on the day, 641 3/4. Wheat back to the bottom of the loosely defined box, 771 1/2, minus 13 1/2. That's 30 off the highs as well as we trade the round trip of the box in a day. Someone is going to have to explain to me how the Asian feedlot is going to feed $16 soy over $7.70 wheat, and yet every time wheat sees 8 bucks, it runs with its tail behind its legs. Dow off 502 points, 35,139, but bonds off a point and 20 tics is what catches the eye. 151.21. Looks like the fed is going to raise 1/2 point instead of 1/4 in March, and China won't like that a bit.
WASDE dissapointed the bulls, but they blew it off and bought the soy complex, with beans up 25 3/4 to 1594 3/4. Corn rocked higher for 14 1/2 as well, 646 3/4. Wheat struggles to pick up 6 1/4 trying to follow corn, 785. Rice bear pushed again, 1508 1/2, off 17 1/2. Dow up 299 points, 35,641, and bonds gain back 16 tics, 153.09.
Tuesday mostly a back and fill day in the grain room as we await WASDE. Corn off 3 cents, 632 1/4 and beans drop 12 3/4 to 1569 on weak bean oil and palm. Rice off 19 as a short time horizon seller appeared and pushed, 1526. Wheat did finally bounce a dime, 778 3/4 to get back into the box. Dow was strong throughout the day, 35,342, plus 373 points, while the bonds faded 23 tics, 152.25.
Risk on trade Monday as meal looks at new contract highs and beans gain 28 1/4 to 1581 3/4. Corn pops 14 3/4 to 635 1/4, but not with much OI increase. Wheat up only 5 1/2 to 768 3/4. Still out of its 770-800 window. Rice gains 17 1/2 to 1545 with some new cash trades. Spread roll for the rest of the month in all the grains, and WASDE Wednesday. Dow in another churn, 34,969, minus 9 and bonds pick up 8 tics, 153.16.
Wheat finally gets a bid Friday and bounces 11 1/2 to 763 1/4. Corn up 3 3/4 as well, 620 1/2. Beans up 9 1 /4 to 1553 1/2 with another 20K of open interest added to the complex. As long as money flows in, they win. Rice off a dime, 1527 1/2. Dow churns but closes up 7 points, 34,978, and bonds drop a hard point and 21 tics, 153.08. Couple rough days in a row for bonds.
Thursday started with solid export sales but spill over tired trade. Resulted in a churn these computers so love, with beans trading 1529 to 1560 and closing 1544 1/4, off a penny. Corn off another 5 3/4 to 616 3/4, and wheat down 3 1/4 to 751 3/4. Wheat seems cheapest of the group. Rice down 6 to 1537 1/2, digesting Wednesday rally. Dow off 521 points, 34,971, and bonds off a point and 3 tics, 154.29. We have come a long way when those kinds of numbers don't elicit much comment in the financials, and that's not a good thing.
Soy complex set highs early Wednesday but rolled over late. Beans close 1545 1/4, up 16 3/4, but nearly 20 off the highs. Meal and oil set new highs but gave the whole day back. Rice gained 27 to 1543 1/2 on new export news. Wheat off 14 cents, 755, and corn, after looking higher faded 12 1/4 lower, 622 1/4. Ag room needs more money, and fast. Dow up another 218 points, 35,492, and bonds pick up 22 tics, 156 even.
New month, new fund money. This is a money market in the beans now, and that new money is buying. 1528 1/2, plus 38 cents. almost 24K new open interest to do it. 43K in new open interest in the complex. In one day. On the highs. Easy to get killed trying to pick a top, but the last one to the dance will be bloodied like we haven't seen in a long time. Corn gets back 8 3/4 to 634 3/4. Kind of a dead cat bounce in wheat, 769, plus 7 3/4. Rice picks up another 10 1/2 to 1516 1/2. New buyer in the mix for sure so id say 690 is now the bid, weather your cash guy wants to admit it or not. Dow up 277 to 35,274 and bonds slip 10 tics, 155.10.
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