Nothing terrible over the weekend allowed Monday to have a risk on appetite. Corn up 4 1/2 to 685 with another 22k of open interest increase. When USDA does finally print commitments it could be a shocker. Beans up only 1/4 cent at the end of a back and forth trade, 1542 3/4. That's with dry SA weather and strong meal. Wheat gains 6 on talk that Russia doesn't want to extend the shipping corridor deadline. Noise. Rice drops 17 1/2 to 1791 as the sell system probes the lower side of this market and surely wants to check for bids at $8. Dow gets a 373 point dress-up to the tops of recent ranges, 34,268 while bonds bounce 14 tics, 127.12.
Friday trade lead by outside events as we have offsetting China reopen and spy balloon stories, Russia lobbing missiles into Ukraine and drier forecasts for Argentina. All uncertainty that lends to higher markets and long funds willing to get longer. Corn gains 9 3/4 to 680 1/2 and we got a 25K pop in open interest to do it. 786 wheat is 28 3/4 higher and justified with a large spec short getting nervous and if Russia really does amp up ground forces trade in that region could halt quickly. Production will surely suffer. Rice off 3 cents, 1808 1/2 and we dropped 211 of open interest as some players are leaving the show up here. Dow got back 161 points of the recent break to close 33,895 while bonds drop another 30 tics, 126.30.
Thursday morning export numbers solid in rice but expected or soft everywhere else. Rice gains another 21 1/2 to 1811 1/2 but really running into selling headwinds here. Strong meal couldn't pull beans up, 1519 1/4, off 1/2. Corn hit for 7 3/4 cents, 670 3/4. Wheat off 7 1/2 as well, 757 1/4. Money was soft everywhere as the Dow loses 261 points to 33,734 and bonds slip another 15 tics, 127.28.
WASDE didn't really bring much to the dance Wednesday and I would argue was slightly bearish to corn and beans but after initial drops we recovered with corn regaining yesterday drop, 678 1/2, plus 4 1/2 and beans up 4 1/2 as well, 1519 3/4. Wheat picked up 15 to 764 3/4 but that's probably more about adding risk to the wheat market in general with Russia upping their ground offensive. Rice was the big winner on the day, 1790, up 42 1/2 cents. Before you get too excited, a week ago rice was 1784 and the big daily rally gained no open interest outside of September new crop. Dow off 211 in standard churn trade, 33,995, and bonds off 2 tics, 128.11.
Dow did some big time back and forth churning Tuesday with Powell speaking at a relaxed economic lunch and closed up 272 points, 34,206. Bonds slipped 19 to 128.23 with higher rates longer the sales pitch of the day. Really just stuck in ranges where the computers can fleece the commoner. Grains leaked pre report as we prep for WASDE at 11 on Wednesday. Corn off a nickel, 674 and wheat off 1/2 to 749 3/4. Beans gave up another 6 as strong oil couldn't offset weak meal. 1515 1/4. Rice down 7 cents, 1747 1/2 but seems to be hitting a lot more bids down here.
Nothing to get excited about in Monday trade. Corn held the best again, 679, up 1 1/2. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 750 1/4. Nice to see it hold 750 at the close. Soft meal and spreads and beans off 10 3/4 cents, 1521 1/4. Rice bear pushing the long fund roll or liquidate decision with us off another 19 1/2 to 1754 1/2. Dow loses 28 in a mostly downside probe and churn, 33,934 while bonds off another point and 2 tics, 129 even. 4 more points to go if they want to check out the bottom of the current playpen.
Friday trade pretty quiet as corn gets a small bounce, 677 1/4 a 2 1/4 cent hike that sadly was the feature of the day. Wheat slips 4 1/4 to 756 3/4 and beans close off 2 1/4 cents, 1532. That close was with meal getting a Friday push up another 5 bucks to prices I just cant see sustained. Rice off 4 to 1774 as the computer is butting heads with the commercial. No crazy size. Bonds broke a point and 23 tics but it was from the top of the range, so I wonder where all these TV talkers preaching a new doom and gloom start from. Still 130.02 and I would argue at least 5 full points too high. Dow off 135 on a Friday and that is doing something, showing that the money boys probably have moved most of the bullish players into position to fleece again. 33,962.
Good corn and bean exports to start Thursday and strong meal gives Soy the daily boost it needed, 1534 1/4, plus 14. Didn't help corn as we slipped 5 3/4 to 675 1/4. Wheat traded both sides and closed up 1 1/4 cent, 761. Rice off 6 1/2 to 1778 as we test $8 futures. Dow tightened the churn range in a balanced day to both sides. My guess is an algorithm test day to see who is more committed. 34,097, off 51 points. Bonds look up the top of the range and roll back to 131.25, up 4 tired tics. Another harvest weekend is upon us tomorrow in the soy complex.
Wednesday trade revolved around the FED for the money boys, and FED 1/4-point raise was right on que. Dow set up a big range and rallied from 33,624 low to 34,148 at close, off only 8 points from what could have gotten a bit ugly. As it is, we now have a nice fat range to churn in until the next news flash. Bonds pick up a point and 25 tics to 131.21, but really just back up near the higher part of the range. Rice up a couple to 1784 1/2 and we found bids approaching $8 rice. Wheat off 1 1/2 to 759 3/4 but really not a bad close for the day. Corn picks back 1 1/4 to close 681. Beans drop 17 3/4 cents, 1520 1/4 on soft oil and meal stall. Nothing newsworthy to me but it just shows with the funds so long in the complex, this bull will need fed every day.
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