Wednesday morning finds more corn exports to China as they seem to be wiling to buy anything edible in any quantity people around the world are willing to sell. There is still a month or so before the world crawls out of its collective cocoon and looks around to discover that in the dark of winter and covid, their pantries have been stripped nearly bare. Early bird gets the worm. Corn up 3 3/4 to 558. Wheat leaked 7 to 340 and if they are going to roll over the Ag complex to spook the heard, either in front of, or with the Acreage report, wheat will be their likely first cut. Meal below 400 but recovers an the spreads stopped weakening, so beans bounced from the lows, but still off 5 1/2 on the day, 1417 3/4. Seller absent in rice and options trade is bullish, 1321 1/2, up 20 1/2. Dow continues its march higher, 32,904, plus 180, and bonds drop 22 tics, 155.05. Catching the dull knife that is the bonds falling might not just give you losses, but tetanus.
We open to more talk of corn exports Tuesday morning, and corn does eventually find its way higher, 554 1/4, up 4 3/4. Wheat was soft and looking weak, but feed options kept a floor under and we bounced 15 off the lows, 647, plus 2. Beans also lower but recover to 1423 1/4 for a 3 3/4 gain. Options vol took a hit. Meal spreads weaken and meal stalls. I don't expect that to be a long term issue. Rice seller seemed to take a break, and buyer took us up 7 to 1301. Don't see much to get excited about there either way. Dow backs up 126 points, 32,724, and bonds slip 9 tics, 155.27.
Monday trade lead by big corn exports and china rumors for more corn, and a 10 1/2 cent higher close, 549 1/2. Beans look lower but meal catches a bid, up $6, and beans gain 6 1/4 to 1419 1/2. Wheat even finds a bid, 645, plus 6 1/2. Rice off a nickel in dead trade, 1294, but the big 3 way trader is back buying 100 of the 1320-1360 call vert and selling the 1280 puts to finance. Switching to June in the Dow, and another record, 32,850, up 185. Bonds gain 18 tics to 156.04, but it will take more than a day to get me to believe we are basing.
Computers tried to push Ag lower Friday morning but markets are more resilient than some expect, including me for right now. Corn powered back to close 1/2 higher, and 8 off the early lows, 539. Meats had another strong day, and that kind of action doesn't thin the herd, or downstream demand for meal this spring and summer, when beans will be scarce, and crushers wont be able to create new meal. All the same, Meal was a dog again and closed off $4, but beans pulled back to 1413 1/4, only off 1/4. That's better than 20 off the lows, and even though it leaves a decent hole below for the funds to test next week, it was a good showing for going into a SA harvest weekend. More talk of ASF in China but the market is shrugging it off, at least for now. Wheat off 4 but really not a terrible show there either, as no one big flushed, leaving the 50 day MA behind. Rice off 2 1/2 to 1299 in a dead trade to close out the week and March grain deliveries. Dow up 293 points and another new high, 32,772, while bonds continue their sorry break, 155.18, off 2 points and 11 tics, warning the world that inflation approaches, government stats not withstanding.
Export sales decent Thursday in corn and beans, and markets hold higher with corn up 4 1/2 cents, 538 1/2, and beans 1413 1/2, plus 3 3/4. Rice price dead at 1301 1/2, off 1/2. Wheat giving up the 50 day moving average and off a dime, 642 1/2. Dow presses to new highs and closes up 200 points, 32,479, and bonds leak 8 tics, 157.29.
A day delay on the nothing numbers out of WASDE, but bulls took a break Wednesday, and the sell programs pounced. Corn off 11 3/4 to 534. Meal off nearly $10 and beans drop 30 1/4 to 1409 3/4. Rice down 17 without a lot of volume, 1302. Sure does seem like commercial steady buying on the rice break to me. Wheat rallied 11 from the low to 652 1/2, off 4 and teasing the 50 day. Dow lit it up for 468 points to new highs again, 32,279. Bonds even gained 12 tics, 158.05. Some are calling for the bond break to stabilize, but without a Dow rollover, I doubt it.
WASDE report was a total punt down the road, but softer markets regained footing for the close. Corn off 1 1/4 to 545 3/4 but a solid effort by the bulls to get back to there. Meal made it back above even and oil seems to never get enough buyers, dragging beans higher by 6 1/4 to close 1440. Wheat popped a dime in its continued churn up and down around the 50 day moving average, 656 1/2. Rice off 6 is nothing trade, 1319. Dow looked up a new high in a muted range day before setting back to 31,811, up 35. June bonds want to find a base and got a bounce, up a point and a tic to 157.25.
After a pretty solid close Friday we opened strong Monday in Corn and beans, but faded. Corn closed 547, up a penny and 1/2 but 9 off the high. Beans up 3 3//4 to 1433 3/4 but well off the 1460 high. Meal still a comparative dog and off almost 2 bucks at the end of the day. Wheat working back and forth on the 50 day to keep suckers buying highs ad selling lows, 646 1/2, down 6 1/2. Rice up 2 1/2 cents, 1325. Dow looked up new highs and cut the rally in half, but still 311 points higher, 31,776. Switching to June bonds where the volume is, off 15 tics, 156.24. WASDE Tuesday at 11.
Beans strong all day and oil leading the way Friday. 1430 close in beans is 19 1/2 higher. Corn gained 13 to 545 1/2 as front month is getting squeezed. We are tighter in the country than most suspect, and that will be a recurrent theme all this summer. I would not be surprised to see the USDA add imports to beans in the report on the 9th, and I expect they will have to at some time just to balance the books. Crush pace for meal simply cannot stay here and the export pull because of delays in SA is a fair amount higher than I had penciled. As most know, I have been expecting a significant pullback, and if they cant make this latest ASF story out of china stick in the next week or 2, I don't know that we get it. Wheat just playing with the chart lines to drive up churn volume, 653, plus 2. Rice off 13 to 1322 1/2 with a somewhat quiet cash market but it seems like a bid shows up every time someone wants to push down. Rice cant afford a break right now, we need the acres way too much. Dow up 587 to 31,465 and bonds get 4 tics, 158.24. Will switch to June in the bonds next week.
Thursday corn traded higher on big shipments, but a 2 3/4 lower close, 532 1/2 blamed on poor sales. Pretty sure both numbers were on the same report. Beans up on solid ships but fades to 1410 1/2, plus 3. Bean oil is getting squeezed providing support, but meal remains soft. Great meal ships by the way. Wheat off a nickel in churn trade, 651. Rice down 10 1/2 with nothing but order flow and not much of that, but decent sales and shipments. Dow down 358 to 30,878 with a 900 point range. Notice how the systems keep opening up the ranges in an almost linear fashion? Bonds leak another point and 14 tics in broken record decline trade, 158.20. Now we get a softball statement out of the powers that be in DC about allowable inflation. Bonds will have hiccups, but this failure is just getting started.
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