Acceptable corn exports, but nothing else to write home about Thursday. Corn had a bid thru most of the day but the funds kept it in a tight range and settled only 1/2 higher, 319 3/4. Wheat was a drag all day and closed down 10 1/2 at 529 3/4. Beans off 5 1/4 with meal staying near unchanged, 836 3/4. Rice roll at firm prices again and we closed 1432 1/2, plus 13 1/2. Rice shipments were solid, but we now have less to ship than last year, and no real new sales on the horizon for 3 months. Dow was 300 lower but fully recovered to 23,407, up 16, while bonds gained another 27 tics to 181.13.
Dow hit for 489 on Wednesday, 23,391 as bonds rally 2 full points and 28 tics, almost like a flight to quality. Corn off 6 3/4 to 319 1/4 as the funds want to turn 320 into resistance instead of support. Wheat off 8 1/2 to 540 1/4. Beans down a nickel, 842, but meal gained almost $5 and the meal spread found a bid. Rice off 9 to 1419 with pretty low volume and solid prices paid for the spread roll.
Corn got soft Tuesday, off 5 1/2 to 326. Don't like that action, I have to admit, and the funds sure like pushing commodities down. Wheat off 6 1/4 to 548 3/4. Beans down 7 1/4 to 847 with weak meal early, but meal caught a pretty decent bid late. Haven't heard why, and will have to see some better action thru Wednesday to confirm a low for the meal move. Rice off 4 1/2 to 1428 and didn't seem to have the bull sponsor again. My store is restocked. We are at a crossroads for ag, and the US in general. I fully expect Trump to begin the process of reopening the economy tomorrow. The EU desperately needs to float some form of Euro bond financing, and several global currencies are getting near the point of no return. Does the dollar become so strong that no one can buy from us, or does the globe move into an inflationary cycle, where everything costs more next month than this month? When we reopen for business, the restaurants will want meat, and so will my grill. We need to look at tomorrows action and Thursdays exports, as well as news to see if china is going to honor their commitments, or this could be a long summer. Dow up 571 to 23,880 and bonds slip 14 tics to 177.22. Lots of the talking heads are convinced the lows are in for equities, because of the fed, but I'm not too sure when we start the re-open, it goes smoothly, or positively. If employees really do get paid more from the government to stay home, it might get messy.
I hope everyone had a happy Easter. Monday trade brought some selling pressure early in the corn but came back to only 1/4 lower, 331 1/2. Wheat off 1 1/2 cents, 555. Beans pulled 9 1/4 lower on meal pressure, 854 1/4. Rice buyer didn't show and we drifted 19 1/2 lower, 1432 1/2. Dow off 309 points, 23,309, and bonds were off 23 tics to 178.04.
Easter shortened week with export sales and WASDE numbers to digest. Corn gained 200M to carry over with a significant, and I think ultimately over aggressive cut to ethanol demand. Great export sales and china in the 20-21 MY mix for 500 as well so corn closes 1 3/4 higher, 331 3/4. This 330 pivot has held for a week, and the bears better bring something new if they want to push farther next week. Wheat up 8 1/4 to 556 1/2. Meal laid flat like a tired dog again, but beans still up 9 cents, 863 1/2. Not much spread left to take out of the meal now and funds puked half their longs by Tuesday, so mostly done by now, Room for a snap in beans and meal if talk of reopening the economy starts next week, and based on the financials, it should. Rice up 20 1/2 to 1452 with someone buying 360 of the July $16 calls. Managed money back in adding to longs in old crop. Dow up 372 to close out a stellar short trading week, 23,618. Think someone knows something is changing next week? Bonds up 18 tics to 178.18. Looking out the window and a clean little shoe-box nova just lit up the two lane by the house. Spring is coming, and change and renewal comes with it. Happy Easter my friends.
Even up day Wednesday as everyone waits for Thursday wasde numbers. Corn stuck at 330, off 1 1/2. Beans off 1/4 to 854 1/2. Wheat slips a penny, 548 1/4. Rice stalls as well, 1431 1/2, off 2 1/2. Dow up 755 to 23,246 as more talk that we have crested the corona virus threat, at much, much lower levels than projected. Bonds off 30 tics, 178.09.
Dow closes 3 higher, 22,491, but nearly 1000 off the highs. What this has created is air for the computers to churn the unsuspecting public for a bit. Lots of room above and below, so they run it up as long as suckers buy with them, then run it down as long as suckers puke out their longs and sell with them. Welcome to a huge range churn machine. Bonds off a point and 11 tics, 179.07. Corn bounces 3 3/4 to 331 1/2, trying to help the 330 area become support, but the industry expects Thursdays WASDE report to increase stocks in corn and beans. The ethanol grind is really getting culled back, and no crisis should be wasted in getting the farmer to let loose of his inventory at seasonally low prices. Beans near the days lows, off 3/4 cent, 854 3/4 and held down by meal again. With all the spread juice pulled out of meal, I don't see much down side left, but they will probably try to hit it just a little more Thursday if we get a slight stock increase. Point is though, I cant make any case for much more than a slight stock increase, and I would expect this report to be the most bearish of the year for corn and beans. Corn will get the northern states recount for the May report most likely, and that isn't going to be a bearish event. Wheat off 6 1/2 to 549 1/4. Rice tumbles 34 cents to 1434, and that's with a solid bounce from the lows. Calendar is working against the bulls, and a 25 cent spread premium is a mighty high price to pay to enforce your conviction.
Dow pops Monday for 1531 points, 22,488. Bonds off 2 full points to 180.18. Corn off 3 cents, 327 3/4, as demand fears with meat prices suffering and destruction in the ethanol market weighing on expected wasde numbers this Thursday. Wheat up 6 1/2 to 555 3/4, and beans, 855 1/2, up a penny and a quarter, but in the face of soft meal yet again. Rice bull up 13 cents, 1468, but hitting spread pressures due to new crop selling from here on. Planters starting to run.
Friday Dow settles down 316 points, 20,957, and better than I expected. Bonds up a point and a tic, 182.18. Corn looked below the 330 support level trading 328, before closing 330 3/4, minus 2 3/4. China took some more corn on a flash sale, one of many i expect to offset the loss of ethanol grind. As long as we can ship it, we should be able to sell it. Of course, the funds don't care. As long as they can keep a thumb on your throat, they will. What they are doing in the meat markets is criminal. Oats have caught a bid and were 8 higher, so there is a glimmer of hope. Beans off 4 1/2 to 854 1/4 with meal off $6 and testing the 299 support level. Premiums have all been taken out of the meal spread this week. Wheat up 7 1/2 to 549 1/4 as the second easiest crop to get to the consumer(via flour) is still in big demand. The easiest crop to get to the consumer,(mill it and bad it), rice, up another 30 1/2 cents to 1455. 227 more vs. cash as the mills get paid to mill and there is still 6200 open in may. No issues at this time, but the spread roll is the strongest I can recall. Corona sure has been positive to domestic demand for rice and wheat, both crops that we started the year a little tight of, and will end the year as tight as people can recall. Remember, we still have to refill the pipeline once harvest does come this fall and it will be empty.
Dow recovers half of Wednesdays drop to close 21,273, plus 533. Bonds up 13 tics to 181.17. Rice bull back, 1424 1/2, up 19, and the spread roll continues with a firm bid. Cash is just thin to non existent in first hands, and the commercials will continue to bid as long as consumers buy retail. Best margins the mills have seen in years I would guess. My problem is the retail hoarding has to be done sometime soon, and the restaurant business is drying up. Beans off 4 to 858 3/4 as meal drops nearly $6 more to below 310. From here on its up to the funds, but meal has a lot of air to the upside if someone decides to push. Wheat down 8 1/2 for a 541 3/4 settle and corn leaks 1 1/4 to 333 1/2. These are stupid low prices for a crop that hasn't even been planted, all while the SA crop seems to be getting smaller, but over any given cycle the funds can do whatever they want and lack of ethanol demand isn't helping matters.