Wednesday trade solid in ag as Brazil dryness still an issue for second crop corn and wheat shorts caught holding the bag. Debate is moving to if the USDA really is right about acres vs. how much they are wrong. Wheat gains 18 1/4 to 648 as the short systems wont stay around when they aren't getting paid. Corn pushes to new highs and closes 594, plus 14. Beans up 20 1/2 to 1410 with strong oil and meal up 3 after rejecting the 395 area. Rice dead other than the roll again, 1316 1/2, plus 3 1/2. Dow in another tight range but testing highs again, 33,624, up 54 and bonds slip 9 tics, 156.28.
Corn got back all Monday slippage on Tuesday and closed up 11 cents, 580 and firm. Wheat strong early but backed off to 629 3/4, plus 1 3/4. Beans gained 7 1/2 to 1389 1/2 rejecting the 1380 area soundly even though the funds meal position got beat up for $6. I believe the funds are about done with the meal roll and flat price liquidation after today. Bean oil back in control and up 150 points. Rice in another sleeper, 1313, plus 3 and the long side roll is finding volume from here on out. Dow sleeping again, 33,570, minus 61 , while the bonds pick up a solid 28 tics to 157.05.
Monday trade soft in the ag room with wheat off 10 3/4 to 628, dragging corn down 8 1/4 to 569. Don't see a bunch of down side here for anything unless china really does roll over. Palm weaker over there and bean oil weaker as well, off 140 to drag beans down 21 cents, 1382 and at my first level of support. Rice dead in the water, 1310, up a penny. Dow took the day off, 33,631, off 51, and bonds did the same, 156.09, minus 7.
WASDE report on Friday was pretty much as expected. They cut corn carryover, and the market popped initially, seeing new highs of 595, but faded to end 2 1/2 lower, 577 1/4. I expect another stocks cut next month. Wheat had a bid and closed up another dime to end the week 638 3/4. Rice in another dull spread roll trade and we got a bit of a bearish report, but the market mostly took it in stride, 1309, off 2. September had a 100 lot bull 3 way quietly trade with 1280 floor in the puts. Meal roll really ramped up again Friday, and I believe that it is mostly done, but front meal still off over $5, and oil off 50 points as well, so beans slip 12 1/4 to 1403. I would expect the computers to try to look below $14 and/or above 1430 next week. Each week of old crop that goes by makes for lesser and lesser resistance to swings, although too hard down will get new buying. Buy low, sell high. Don't sell what you don't own. Rinse and repeat. Dow again pressing to new market highs, 33,682, plus 292 points, and bonds drop 9 tics, 156.16.
Thursday export sales soft across the board, although I continue to be satisfied with ship rates, solid again in corn and meal. More talk of dryness in SA and now the first excuses of weather here in America, and the corn lit up for 19 1/4 cents, 579 3/4. WASDE Friday at 11 and as people run their calculators, and country cash bids firm, its hard to get bearish corn, even at these prices. I also think most players thought there would be more fund liquidation in the May position roll. Wheat up 12 1/2 as well, 628 3/4. Soy Oil got a bit of a bid and beans gained 6 1/2 to 1415 1/4. Meal had roll and liquidation, keeping the front soft for one more day. Not much time left to blame meal softness on the funds. Expect the plant shut down for repair stories to crop up by the end of next week unless oil blows up again. Rice off 6 in another quiet day, 1311. Talk of an Iraq tender for prompt ship and a solid medium grain Titan bid helping with the current floor. Tomorrows rice number should be "interesting". Dow in another quiet computer churn day, 33,390, up 62 points. Bonds up 13 tics, 156.25.
Wednesday trade mostly just computers churning inside of ranges. Corn up 6 1/2 to 560 1/2 with Wheat basing, 616 1/4, plus 3/4. Beans looked on both sides but settled off a dime, 1408 3/4. Still think it will take a curve ball on the WASDE report to push much below $13.80- $14 for any period of time. Inland basis is too firm, and meats setting new highs does nothing to discourage domestic demand. Rice up 4 cents, 1317 and the spread roll is firming. I'm blaming it on order-flow for the moment, but it bears watching. Dow in another quiet churn, 33,328, up 13 points, while bonds slip 5 tics, 156.12.
Beans had some follow thru strength Tuesday, back north of 1430 early but backing up to 1418 3/4, plus 6 on the day. Meal was flat and front bean oil is bouncing. Corn and wheat flashed early strength as well but faded, 615 1/2 for wheat, off 2 1/2 on the day and 12 from the high, and corn closed only a penny higher, 554 1/4, Still a higher close in corn, and more weather issues of note in second crop from our southern neighbors. Rice spread roll the only feature, 1313, minus 3. Dow had a quiet fill in day and slipped 100 to 33,315, while the bonds traded 30 tics higher, 156.17
Monday operated like it was in a post holiday cloud, with small corn liquidation by the funds met with little resistance but no one really wanted to push. Corn wound up off 6 1/2 to close 553 1/4 in what was just a weird trade to me. Wheat has rumors of a big cash sale, and we are up 7 cents, 618. Rice quiet yet again, but a 75 lot iceberg buyer kept a floor under the contract, and we closed up 4 1/2 in the end, 1316. Beans seemed strong regardless of meal or oil signals inter day and rejected any under $14 talk, 1412 3/4, and solid feeling with a solid close. Dow chasing records again and closing 33,415, while bonds just lulled around, 155.19.
April fools day Thursday after a wild Wednesday trade to adjust to the new report fundamentals in grains. May corn settles down 4 1/2 in the best old crop showing of the day, 559 3/4. New crop has a bid, as does beans, with acres projected too low to make a balance sheet work. Wheat is a feed, off 7 cents, 611. Wheat will need corn to help it have a floor, and it will ultimately help cap corn prices at some point this summer. Nothing new in rice, off 6 1/2 to 1311 1/2. Rice buyer still seems like he is trying to trap sellers, but that's more a gut feeling than something I can tie anything to right now. Beans off 34 3/4 to 1402 as we test the buck and meal continues to be a drag. Once we get the fund roll out of the way next week, there are a bunch of upside calls that the underwriters would love to expire quietly, and the fund hunters would dearly love to get in the money. Buy low, sell high, but don't sell into a short position and fall in love with it right now. New crop beans with a bid trying to buy acres, and we really need to buy a few million more acres.
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