Monday shuffle for month end trade didn't really being any surprises. Corn up 6 3/4 cents, 424 3/4 as flood damage is a topic and the delayed planting of beans in SA will probably have an effect on total global corn production for them next year. I would note that it is a long time from today but still. 584 wheat gets its 4 cents from Friday back. Beans give back 8 3/4 cents of Fridays gains, 1057. Rice bear couldn't continue the push, and something triggered the bull computer, 1529 1/2, plus 21 1/2. Dow off 13 points and had to stage a bit of recovery to do it, 42,643 and bonds off 22 tics, 124.06.
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Really strong showing for a Friday in beans, 1065 3/4, plus 24 3/4 on the back of strong meal and more China purchases rumored. Corn followed for 4 3/4 cents, 418, but wheat just couldn't join the show, 580, minus 4 1/4. Rice got a 15 1/2 cent bounce, 1508. Milling yields are off but I'm still getting some impressive field yields. Dow peaked over 43,000 but settled back to 42,656, up 101 points to end the week with mostly churn to show for the time. At least the computers should have made money. Bonds up 17 tics, 124.28. You could make the same comment about bonds as the Dow as far as who is really making the money.
Solid bean numbers Thursday morning but nothing else exciting is export sales and bids just didn't have any follow thru. Beans dropped 12 1/4 to a 1041 close while wheat lost a nickel, 584 1/4. Corn slipped 2 cents, 413 1/4. Rice off a dime, 1492 1/2. Standard harvest pressure type trade with Friday hedging looking at us. Dow stayed positive pretty much the whole day, so money wasn't a drag, 42,555, plus 279 points while bonds picked up 2 tics, 124.11.
Pretty happy with the action on hump day in the Ag room with beans picking up 11 cents, 1053 1/4. Wheat up 11 1/4 to 589 1/4 and corn gains 3 1/2 to 415 1/4. Rice off another 23 1/2 to find support near the buck, 1502 1/2 close. Dow peaked at new highs early but faded to 42,276, off 321 points. That use to be a big number, but this just seemed an orderly push off the highs. Bonds lost 24 tics, 124.09.
Market came out hot Tuesday morning with a hunt toward 1060 in beans and 420 corn. Wheat was the canary and soon enough the buying faded. 1042 1/2 beans were 3 better on the day but 16 off the highs. 418 corn faded to 411 3/4 by the close, minus 1 3/4. Wheat gave back 4 1/2 from Monday, 578. Rice took a punch in the nose, 1526, off 28 1/2. Low river is hurting rice shipments as well as bean grading. The soy grading dock schedules are now near criminal. I'm afraid the days of counting on the middleman to treat the farmer right if he can't store off the combine are in the rear-view mirror. Dow hovering near all-time highs, 42,597, plus 96 and bonds drop a full point early but recover to 125.01, off 3 tics. I think in one year we will look back at a 125-bond quote with some degree of envy.
Lack of early hedge pressure Monday empowered the long side, and the short funds have been at the dance a long time. Beans rocket 27 1/4 higher, 1039 1/4. Corn up 11 3/4 to 413 1/2 and wheat pops 14 cents, 582 1/2. Rice off a penny but at the high of the range already, 1554 1/2. Tuesday action will be important in Ag. Quiet Dow up 58 points, 42,501 and bonds recover from being down a full point to only off 4 tics at the close, 125.04.
As we ramp up harvest in a bigger footprint, I think people are a little tepid to go home long over a weekend, and this will be the case for the next month, so keep that in mind when you are making decisions Thursdays with export sales and Fridays, as well as be aware of possible excessive early Monday hedge pressure. It's just the season, and if that trade is already in your mind, it's easier to digest. Corn slipped 4 Friday to 401 3/4 on a 15K gain in open interest. Beans off a penny and a quarter, 1012 and wheat got a 3 cent up move, 568 1/2. Rice gained 3 1/2 to 1555 1/2 as well. A bit of a dress to a pretty quiet day in the Dow to get near unchanged, 42,443, off 4 points and the bonds gained 4 tics, 125.08.
Thursday morning exports solid in beans and good wheat numbers too. River logistics need to improve. I think the bean exports helped hold us Thursday, 1013 1/4, off 3/4. Corn off 7 to 405 3/4 and wheat down 10 1/4 to 565 1/2. Rice buyer appears to be a short cover trade, possibly the funds. 1552, up 5 1/2. They have bought a lot of rice into farmer selling. At this point, something in exports needs to show up pretty soon. Bonds off a full point or more for a bunch of the day and end 30 tics lower, 125.04 while the Dow rips to new highs, 42,447, plus 538. Trying to figure out if the markets are just pricing in a perpetual printing press so what we are really seeing is dollar devaluation. I'd like to think more practical heads would prevail, but the markets don't think so.
FED did drop rates Wednesday and took out 1/2 point instead of .25. Still a buy the rumor sell the fact day, with bonds losing 26 tics, 126.02 and the Dow off 128 points, 41,909. Those are tight enough numbers to not read much into but be careful catching the knife if either roll over thru the rest of the week, especially in bonds as I believe they mostly want to flatten the yield curve. Pretty tight ranges in the ag room as the issues of export, river logistics, harvest of a crop that probably won't get any bigger with a lot of harvest time for damage, SA hot and dry, and more all fighting for which direction that ultimately the funds think they can push us. Wheat unchanged, 575 3/4, corn up 1/4 cent, 412 3/4, and beans up 8 to 1014. Rice got another 14-cent bump as the buyer keeps coming and we need to see some outsized exports soon.
Best way to describe Tuesday is that we held up. Some nerves in front of the FED rate cut today kept financials close to the nest, Dow off 20 points, 40,037 and bonds off 10 tics, 126.28. Decent showing in the corn in what could have been a soft day, 412 1/2, plus 1 3/4. Wheat drop follow-through really didn't materialize, 575 3/4, off 2 3/4. Dull bean trade, 1006, up 1 1/2 while rice looked lower again, but strong buying got us back better on the day, 1534 1/2 for a 4 1/2 cent gain. FED will drop short term rates Wednesday; question is how much. I'm hoping for 1/2 point or even 3/4 as that would give us a softer dollar and easier exports. China still wants our beans, and Brazil is still hot and dry.
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