Ag slide continues with the Russia corridor extended and China corn cancellations. July corn hit for another 19 3/4 to 561 1/2 with December off 6 cents 499. My calculator gets a lot harder for the funds to push new crop below 490. I remind everyone again its a long growing season and this weekend should provide the last of the sell what I got planted mentality. After that we shift to oh my god can I grow what I sold. Wheat off 22 to 625 1/2. Beans off 27 cents, 1337 as river freight is so low we know exports are slow. Meal still showing some promise and I struggle to get meal much below 415-420 with Argy low of supply moving forward. Rice pops a dime as 1740 area found trade, 1751 close. Dow in an up churn day recovering all Tuesday drop, 33,478, plus 418 points and bonds leak 11 tics, 128.25. Probably too low to sell and too high to buy.
Ugly day Tuesday in the grain room with funds selling everything. Meal and oil especially soft and that let beans get whacked for 36 3/4 cents in July futures, 1364. Corn off 11 1/4 to 581 1/4 and wheat pushed 13 1/4 down, 647 1/2. Rice liquidation nets a 44 1/2 cent break in the front, 1741 while new crop is off a dozen. Our 3 way rice options trader started ringing the register as 1740 is the floor for that trade. Bonds off another 21 tics, 129.04 and the Dow drops to 33,060, 338 points lower and near the lows of the day.
Firm Monday trade With the Russia corridor still up for grabs and wheat up 25 3/4 to 660 3/4. Hard wheat pulling everything with it and feed wheat should be smaller this year in America, good for corn. Corn plus 6 1/4 cents, 592 1/2. Beans up 10 3/4 to 1400 3/4 with strong early meal but the products faded off their highs. Rice showdown has bears push 63 lower, 1785 1/2 in July September off 18 and running into bids. I would expect some July support around 8 bucks cash. Dow churn day, 33,398, up 43 points and bonds leak 30 tics, 129.25. Another 2 weeks of debt ceiling noise. What shall we make the simpleton masses fear today?
WASDE numbers Bearish on the surface for corn and beans, friendly wheat and rice. 586 1/4 July corn closed 4 higher on the day but Dec lost a nickel. If everything winds up as rosy as they projected, we still have baked most of it into the cake. Same with soy, 1390 July, off 15 1/2 and Nov down 24. Record yields on both to get to numbers that I currently only see another 25 cents down in corn and 50 in soy. Way too close to the bottom to be pricing. Wheat supply tighter than expected and we gain 7 3/4 cents, 635. With carry in wheat and premiums in corn I think we are taking away wheat feed risk usage domestically. Global is another story. Rice up 17 to 1848 1/2 with growing open interest and a showdown on the horizon. Bullish old and new crop report and I would not sell another grain of new crop. Dow higher and lower with the late Friday dress up to the end, 33,355, off only 16 while bonds slip 26 tics, 130.23. Unless the FED or Treasury puts us into a depression, the bond market is setting up for another leg down. I could see 110 but the market will have to do more work to get me to a solid projection. Caution is growing when all the talking heads are the other way.
Exports Thursday morning soft and Russia corridor talks still working so its hard to get the bull fed. Wheat off 14 cents, 627 1/4. We have finally broke 630 on a close for this cycle so Friday closer should be interesting. Of note, China hog profits weak and lots of feed wheat replacing corn at these cheaper prices. Corn off 11 3/4 to 582 1/4 with fears that more sales to china could be cancelled. Meal strong and probably finding a floor for now with Argy currency a mess and production down sharply. Beans up 1 1/2 at the end of the day, 1405 1/2 and that's 20 off the lows. Rice picked up another 5 1/2 and open interest still growing when you would expect a wind down. Still plenty of time for a futures showdown there. Be wary. Dow 231 weaker on banking concerns, 33,371 and bonds gain 27 tics with fear of debt ceiling issues pushing some out the curve, at least for the next month.
Honestly a bit of a surprise that corn could bounce 9 1/4 cents on Wednesday in the face of an expected weak WASDE on Friday and Russia corridor talks still churning along. Interior basis firming and I wonder if July has to pick up some because of basis quote shifts from May to July. Wheat looked at previous day lows and bounced solidly, 641 1/4, off only 2 1/4 on the close. Beans off 10 1/4 to 1404. Rice down and up but ends 4 higher, 1826. Dow looks lower but recovers , 33,602, minus 35. Bonds rally a full point, 130.22 as we work back up in the churn range.
Quiet on the Russia corridor impasse with talks supposedly resuming as well as solid planting pace weighs heavy on Tuesday Ag. Wheat was off 20 but recovers half, 643 1/2, minus 10 1/2. Corn off 11 3/4 to 584 3/4 with China stiffing us on all April purchases. Meal gets a hard hit and soy follows, 1414 1/4, down 19 1/2. Even rice seems toppy, 1822, down 14 1/2 on the day. Some options activity in rice that catches the eye. Dow minus 48 in a dead day, 33,637 and bonds leak 6 tics, 129.22.
Monday trade after Friday across the board strength was pretty subdued. Dow likes a slower churn day in a tighter range to see if the pop holds. 33,685, minus 54. Bonds did leak another point and 3 tics, 129.28. Russia impasse still in place but wheat leaks 6 1/4 to 654, needing fed every day. Corn unchanged, 596 1/2. Bean oil gave back part of the recent rally and beans off 2 3/4 to 1433 3/4. Rice traded up to my resistance and stalled, at least for now, 1836 1/2.
Friday trade risk on everywhere. Russian corridor still not settled and Argy soy shortfall is gaining some traction. Beans up 18 3/4 to 1436 1/2. Wheat up another 15 1/4 to 660 1/4 and I'm attributing the bounce as much to order flow from funds getting too short as Russia. Same in corn with us closing up 7 1/2 cents, 596 1/2. Commitments showed funds over their skis short corn and wheat. Rice up another 31 in very thin markets, 1828 1/2. I think from here out you are more in a casino than a futures market for rice, especially old crop. Dow rips for 543 points, 33,739 and bonds off a point and 5 tics, 130.31.
Export sales Thursday morning negative corn but shipments record large. Nice to see Mexico back for 30K of rough rice. That has to be where part of the barges were headed, but Id say more is in the pipeline. River freight is stupid cheap right now. OK soy and wheat numbers. EU raised rates 1/4 as expected. They are crowing about their banking system being more stable but neglecting the details of why. I'll take Jamie Dimon over the entire EU financial system. I think they would too. Soft open for Ag but solid bounce thru the day. Corn and wheat each off a dime but corn closes 1/2 higher, 589 and wheat picks up 5 1/4 to 645. Russia corridor still in the air but I suspect there will be a deal cut. Beans 12 lower and a nickel higher, 1417 3/4 close is up 1/4. Rice up a nickel, 1797 1/2 as we chew thru $8 pricing from the farm and futures longs ringing the register. More receipts cancelled. I'd be mighty cautious being short any measurable amount of July right now. Dow looked at 33K and closed 33,196, off 296 points. Bonds sniffed 133 but settled only 8 better, 132.04.