Beans gain a nickel Friday on the back of bean oil bids, 1186. Wheat up 11 to 567 1/4. Russia seems to have found a floor or has already oversold a bit. Corn slips a penny in dull trade, 434 1/4. Funds big ag short is still with us but the clock is working against them. Planting needs to progress in a very timely manner with some good weather to boot. Managed money should use this next week or two to make a new push down if they can, or I believe the clock will run out on them. 1616 rice was off 4 cents as most all the big fund long has liquidated, and shorts have entered the fray. Commercial has cleaned up their short position nicely and was a net 1650 contract buyer last week. Thats a pretty impressive turn. Higher for longer interest rates have the Dow 307 points higher on a solid bounce off Thursday break while bonds lose 28 tics, 117.17. I have abandoned trying to catch the bond knife until the Fed comes up with better guidance. Nothing stopping us from checking the old lows even though it doesn't make sense to me today.
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Exports Thursday morning didn't bring any surprises and the ag floor mostly stalled looking for a leader. Wheat plus 1/4 cent, 556 1/4 and corn picked up another 3 1/2 to get back Tuesdays loss over the last 2 days trade. Churn. 1180 beans off 2 1/4. Rice bear hit us for 31 with a late pressure although he didn't get what I think he wanted as far as erasing the Wednesday pop. Dow was ugly, off 566 points, 38,916 while bonds gained 20 tics, 118.13.
Financials stabilized Wednesday with the Dow off only 26 points, 39,482 and bonds up a couple tics, 117.25. Grain room got a nice bounce as Tuesday break had no sponsor to continue the push. 431 3/4 corn was 5 1/4 better, wheat gained 10 3/4 to 556, and beans got back 8 3/4 of the break, 1182 1/4. Rice sellers weren't getting paid and small short covering led to big gains in futures, 1651, for a nice 43 cent pop. It's been a 3-buck break, and milling yields aren't getting any better. Tomorrow trade will be interesting to see if we are a fish flopping around or are we basing.
Financials weak Tuesday so no extra fuel for the grain room to be found. Dow bounced 140 off the lows, 39,508, still lower by 386 points. Bonds off another 25 tics, 117.23 and maybe cheap enough for now. If not soon, something much bigger is probably just under the surface. Corn gives back report gains with a 9 lower, 426 1/2 close. Wheat off 11 3/4 as well, 545 1/4. Meal looking to check out 320 at some point it seems and drags soy down 11 3/4 to 1174. Rice march down continues, 1608, off 21 1/2.
After the long weekend had time to digest Thursday numbers, corn sets back 6 1/2 Monday to 435 1/2. Open interest dropped 11k so some of the new players left in a hurry. Wheat off 3 1/4 to 557. Beans looked up 12 bucks, but weak meal drags soy down 5 3/4 to 1185 3/4. Rince and repeat with the rice funds still leaving, 1629 1/2, off 6 1/2. Dow off 282 points, 39,894 and bonds take a punch to the gut, 118.16, off a point and 30 tics. So much for 6 FED cuts.
Lower acres and slightly lower stocks Thursday drove corn 15 1/4 better, 442. Big jump in open interest so both sides have a bigger vested interest in how next week plays out. Wheat up 12 3/4 as well, 560 1/4. I think India's production and prices will be the next fuel if their internal prices don't slip. Beans gained acres and supply, although I would argue rounding errors in the big picture, 1191 1/2, off a penny. Rice off 22 1/2 to 1636 as funds are almost done with the big long unwind and I didn't see anything shocking out of DC on this front. Some bullish option 3 ways in new crop quietly traded. Dow up 32 points, 40,176 and bonds up 8 tics, 120.14.
Humpday saw new money flows into equities as the Dow ran up 464 points, 40,144 and bonds gained 18 tics as well, 120.06. I attribute this to a looser than publicly stated monetary policy by the Fed and I don't expect them to severely tighten any time soon. Russia seems to have stabilized their wheat export situation and wheat gained 4 to 547 1/2. Hard to push wheat down much unless we have the acres wrong, and we will know that at 11 Thursday. The rest of ag soft as corn drops another 5 3/4 to 426 3/4 and beans off 6 1/2 cents, 1192 1/2. Rice off over a dollar in the last week as the long funds have mostly left the building, 1658 1/2, off another 21 1/2. Report Thursday at 11 and no trade Friday.
No fresh news and all the grains leaked lower Tuesday. Beans back under the buck as we drop 10 1/4 cents to 11.99. Wheat loses 11 1/2 to 543 1/2 and corn off 5 1/4 to 432 1/2. More rice long fund liquidation with another 24 1/2 cent break, 1680 close. Financials were dead all day with the Dow off 19 points, 39,680 and bonds getting back 10 tics, 119.20.
Good bounce in the beans Monday, 1209 1/4, plus 16 3/4. I stress again that these are computer churn ranges. We are just flopping 20 cents at a time now. Quiet in the corn 437 3/4, off 1 1/2 and wheat, 555, plus 1/4 was a dozen off the high. Rice got beat down 30 cents as the long funds continue to exit. Dow has a quiet leak 167 lower, still 39,699 and bonds give back 15 tics, 119.10.
Mostly weakness Friday with beans off 19 1/2 cents, 1192 1/2. Rice down 17 more, 1734 1/2. Corn quiet but still slips 1 1/2 to 439 1/4. Wheat counter trade, 554 3/4, plus 8. Dow gives back some of the recent strength, 39,868, off 338 points while bonds pick up 25 tics, 119.25.
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