Day after Christmas mostly bid as corn gains another 5 1/4 to 453 3/4 and wheat up 6 1/4 cents, 541 as well. We are still competitive in global corn trade. Meal strong and beans pop 12 3/4 to 988. Rice the laggard with what appears to be continual fund selling, 1391 1/2, minus 13 1/2. Dow got better on the day to close 57 points higher, 43,702 and bonds added 2 tics, 113.30.
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Tuesday pre-Christmas shortened trade had a coast mode. Corn up 3/4 to 448 1/2. Beans recover 5 3/4 to 975 1/4. Rice up 4 cents, 1405 with the fund selling more with no benefit. Wheat did slip 5 3/4 to 534 3/4. Dow popped 326 points with little resistance, 43,645 and bonds gained 10 tics, 113.28.
Monday trade to start Christmas week with Tuesday done at noon, no trade Wednesday and Thursday and Friday normal hours. Wheat trying again to base and we get a 7 1/2 cent bounce, 540 1/2. Corn holds Friday and gains another 1 1/2 to 447 3/4. Beans give back a nickel in a day that seemed a lot worse than it was. 969 1/2. Rice trade to lows at 1369 but rejected it and the fund seller now has accumulated a much bigger position at a much lower price, 1401 settle, off only 6 1/2. Dow got dressed up from the daily lows, 43,319, plus 3 points and bonds dropped 30 tics, 113.18.
Nice bounce back in corn Friday to end the week at 446 3/4, plus 5 1/2 on the day. Wheat looked a little lower early but stalled and recovered to 533, unchanged. Meal gained 10 bucks and beans rally 11 1/2 to 974 1/2. Rice has what appears to be an aggressive fund short seller, 1407 1/2, off another 33 1/2. We are on the cusp of making every expiring Jan. put in the money, and I can't see who would deliver $14 rice in January, especially with milling yields where they are and the river wanting anything that would mill at board terms. The next 10-15 days in rice is going to be choppy and thin. At some point the trap will get sprung. Dow up 519 points, 43,316 after an 1150-point range and bonds recover 15 tics, 114.16.
I liked everything I saw in Exports Thursday morning and after a lower trade Wednesday night, looks like the market is finding some kind of footing. Beans saw a new contract low at 945 but recovered nicely, 963 close, up 11 1/4. Big long liquidation drop in open interest, like a capitulation flush. Time will tell. Same story in meal. Wheat printed a new low as well but less enthusiasm in the recovery, 533, still off 8 1/4. Corn bids back in play and the farmer is a reluctant seller while the world seems to be a happy buyer, 440 3/4, plus 3 1/2. Rice is a different story. 1441, minus 40 1/2 as the buyers retreat and it appears that a fund has decided to push to the downside. The positive to this trade now is it should help us clear more inventory to exports. Dow stalled after the midweek collapse, 42,797, plus 19 points while bonds drop another point and a tic, 114.01.
Ugly hump day in the grain room. Beans lead the path down to new lows, 951 3/4, off 25 cents. Corn off 6 1/4 to 437 1/4 and wheat down 3 3/4 to 541 1/4. Rice scale down buying sated for the day and we dropped 16 1/2 cents, 1481 1/2. Dow dumped after Powell cut rates as expected, 42,778, minus 1189 points. Ouch. Bonds off another point and 11 tics, 115.02. This is monetary contraction on a big scale. I think hidden in the FED notes is some cleaning up of their balance sheet, which means they need us to buy what they don't want to hold anymore.
Kind of a doggy pre-holiday trade Tuesday as the funds seem to be looking to see who is out there to support the markets. Corn slipped 1 1/2 to 443 1/2 while wheat dropped a nickel, 545. Beans posted a new low at 970 before recovering to 976 3/4 for a 5 1/4 cent lower close. Rice still dead other than spread roll, 1498, plus 3. Dow was off another 293 points, 43967 as we erase the premium paid to roll long positions and bonds gained 7 tics in basing action, 116.13.
Corn had a 3-cent bounce Monday but that's about it for friendly news. 1495 rice off 3 to 1495 but mostly spread roll again. Seems both sides want their position for the most part. Beans off 6 1/4 to 982 and oil was soft, worried about what comes of the biofuel program. Wheat slips 2 1/4 to 550 and it still bothers me how soft Dec traded. There's lots of reasons to consider owning wheat and every one of them has cost you money. March Dow off 77 points, 44260 and bonds trying to find a base, 116.06, off 2 tics.
Friday trade wanted to test the resolve of new longs with corn off a penny, 442. Commitments after the close showed funds long 166k, a bit more than I expected. Beans off 7 1/2 to 988 1/4 with meal and oil spreads posting a solid amount of carry, so this big crush that has helped beans may be running out of steam. An announcement of biofuels bean oil component could change that in an instant. Wheat off 6 1/4 cents, 552 1/4 but Dec went off 526 so there isn't a big front demand until near full carry. 1498 rice off 2 1/2 cents as spread roll continues at tight prices due to milling yields but seems to have support of bigger players below $15. Dow off 111 points, 43,866 and that contract is rolling to March with a 470-point premium for the roll. Makes me think the big money guys are fleecing the smaller index players as big as they can. Bonds off another full point, 116.08. I said we might look back at 120 bonds with envy, but I didn't expect it to happen this fast.
Decent export shipments Thursday but softer sales set the tone for a small setback as we probe where support is in the cash markets. Notice that the Dec/March corn spread has widened, and the squeeze isn't carrying much water in the commercial world. Corn off another 4 3/4 to 443 1/2. There is a corn story out there, but we probably have overshot for now. Wheat off 4 3/4 to 558 1/2. Beans looked lower but recovered late, 995 3/4, plus 1/4. Rice closes 1500 1/2 with more of the roll as a feature, minus 3. Dow is still in the leak and churn trade, 43,977, off 245 points and bonds drop 29 tics to 117.08.
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