Wednesday trade stable in the financials but the grain room got another bear raid. Wheat off a dozen, 585 1/2 and walked away from the buck. Corn off 6 1/2 cents, 424 1/4. Beans down 15 3/4 to 1170 1/2. Rice did recover Tuesday loss, 1862, plus 25 1/2 with continued river demand. Dow up 161 points, 38,494 and bonds up 18 tics, 118.17.
Dow was the story Tuesday with a meltdown to 38,333, off 551 points. Bonds off a point and 28 tics, 117.31 with CPI higher than expected confirming that the FED is going to stay high and tight. Not bad action in the grains given financials weakness. Wheat unchanged, 597 1/2 and corn up 1/4 cent, 430 3/4. Beans leaked 6 3/4 to 1186 1/4 on weaker meal. Rice off another 26 to 1836 1/2. Should have some bearish numbers out Thursday and Friday but I believe that's baked in by now. Fact is, I can't find a bull and the funds are loaded short.
Nothing major in Monday trade with the Dow up 136 points, 38,884 but off the highs. Bonds up 7 tics, 119.27. The fresh money probably helped the grain room as beans bounced 9 1/2 to 1193 and corn recovered from early lows to close 430 1/2, plus 1 1/2. Wheat up 3/4 to 597 1/2. Rice bull got his hand slapped for the first time in a while, 1862 1/2, off 29 1/2. Going to be interesting to see how the free riders react to a hiccup.
Friday trade a mixed bag. Corn tested the lows and closed 4 1/4 lower, 429. Beans off a dime as well. 1183 1/2. Wheat got an 8 1/4 cent bounce, 596 3/4 as the $6 handle continues to act as a magnet. River business continues to fuel the rice market, 1892, plus 27. Sure wish there were more commercial longs to bring a longer fuel source to this fire. Dow closes off 76 points after checking a new high, 38,748 and bonds look higher but fade to 2 tics lower at the close of the week, 119.20.
Wednesday brought pre report evening up trade and weak long liquidation in front of what is generally accepted to be a bearish report Thursday at 11. Beans off 10 1/2 to 1189 with weak meal. Corn tests the lows, 434 1/4, minus 4 1/2. Rice gives back 9 cents, 1848 1/2. Wheat the outlier with a 7-cent bounce, 602. I would remind you that these are not the times or conditions to be pricing a crop. Sometimes you have to step back and let the computers have their way. Dow up 161 points, 38,774 and bonds slip 5 tics, 120.27. More are recognizing that Powell won't cut 4 times this year unless things are bad.
Wheat bounced 4 3/4 to 595 Tuesday while beans gained 3 1/4 to 1199 1/2. Bean oil had a bid, but the Biofuels story is a few months out still. Corn off 4 and looking downward for a sponsor, 438 3/4. Rice buyer at it again, 1857 1/2, plus 26 1/2 and 400 march calls traded. 9200 march open interest in rice still and some commercial has a big, short that might get squeezed harder than they expected. Dow got a 147-point rally to 38,613 and bonds gained 28 tics, 121 even.
Interesting day Monday with financials showing some cracks as the Dow needs a bounce to close 38,466, off 299 points. We came close to ugly. Bonds off a point and 25 tics for a second ugly day of trade there, 120.04. Four full points in two days. Years ago, I think that would have been two limits. I would expect the money boys to put up some kind of buying front pretty soon or else. Beans and the soy complex showed resilience as the day wore on, 1196 1/4, plus 7 3/4. Range was 19 cents again. Corn closed unchanged, 442 3/4. A little head fake in either direction but looks like the computer couldn't get anyone to follow the lead. Mexico bought some more corn on a flash. Wheat off 9 1/2 to 590 1/4 as we give up the buck there. 1831 rice was off 12 1/2 and really nothing trade but 500 vs cash so we are still at prices where the commercials can do business, at least for now.
Friday trade makes me want to look back on the weeks closes and ranges and contemplate computer churn and how much it affects our decisions and emotions. With carry charges in most everything and a perceived comfortable level of stocks, we can pretty much depend on this type of trade moving forward until there is a material change in supply or demand. 442 3/4 corn on Fridays close was off 4 1/2 for the day, but up a paltry 2 1/2 from Monday close. 1188 1/2 beans off 14 3/4 on the day, but only off 5 3/4 from Monday close. Think about how those 20-30 cent daily ranges played with your emotions. Recognize that it is by design. Wheat off 1 3/4 to 599 3/4 and hugging the buck again. One half cent off last Fridays close. Minus 6, plus 12, minus 10, plus 6, minus 2. Churn. Rice did gain 33 to 1843 1/2 but we are experiencing a material revision of what are the remaining stocks in the USA are, with river business and poor milling yields catching some domestics flat footed. I think I'd wait on anymore rice sales until WASDE on the 8th. Dow hit new highs Friday and settled up 140 points, 38,765. Bonds off 2 points and 4 tics, 121.29. Can't for the life of me understand Thursday bond rally, and the market doesn't want to buy it either.
Other than meal, exports Thursday morning didn't bring any new fuel to the grain room, so we were back to computer churn. I was happy to see corn only off a penny at the end of the day, 447 1/4. Wheat got back over the buck as well, 601 1/2, plus 6 1/4. Good sign we are building a base. Beans gave up 19 to 1203 1/4 but as long as we hold Monday low on a closing basis, I'll write this to bigger range computer churn. Speaking of bigger churn, Dow up 345 on cue to recover Wednesday blip down, 38,625. Bonds lit up a point and 22 tics, 124.01.
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