End of month trade Friday and delayed exports to start the morning with nothing out of the ordinary other than big rice exports. Old crop rice still couldn't get anything going and faded another 16 lower, 1767. Fund roll in rice was less than Steller as well, but the long new crop player pumped Sept up 15 for the close. Part of that is from the Brazil flooding and we should have a much better handle on long term damage by the end of next week. Commitments in corn show the funds adding back shorts again and three down days with increasing open interest will set us up for another upside pop at some point, but possibly not until July deliveries are in play. 1205 beans off another 4 3/4 and wheat off 2 1/2 as well, 678 1/2. Dow rips 560 points higher late and bonds recover 16 tics as well, 115.30.
Thursday trade has more leaks in pricing as wheat retreats again, 681, off another 11 3/4 dragging corn along, 448 3/4, down 6 1/2. Beans off 4 1/4 cents on continued meal set back, 1209 3/4. Rice off a penny, 1783. Dow still can't find its feet, 38,231, minus 293 points while bonds do get a 28-tic bounce, 115.14. Exports delayed until Friday.
Dow whacked for another 420 points, 38,524 and worse in aftermarket hours. Bonds off another point and 7 tics, 114.18. As money for trade is more and more interrelated, this has to be a drag on grains. We were tired as well. Meal off another $8 and beans down 15 1/2 cents, 1214. New crop doesn't want to defend the buck either. It seems they run meal $20-$30 too high and use that as a tool to run the beans. Corn 7 1/4 lower, 455 1/4 and it looks like the corn will pretty much all go in that was going to go in. Late corn takes yield off the top, but its surely not the only determinant. Wheat off 7 1/2 to 692 3/4 and that one concerns me because with global stories where they are wheat could be the easiest to push higher. Rice off another 25 to 1784. If we break hard enough and fast enough, we could get another vessel or two into Mexico/Latin America with the small remaining old crop.
Short week of trade starts off Tuesday with a lack of new fuel to drive the bull, with meal off 10 bucks and beans dropping 18 1/2 cents, 1229 1/2. Corn leaked 2 1/4 to 462 1/2 while wheat held the buck, 700 1/4, plus 3. July rice off 25 cents to 1809 as funds try to exit rather than roll. Dow wanted to recover last week's action but failed, 38,944, off 213 points while bonds lost a full point and a tic, 115.25. Sell in May and go away might carry the water this year.
Friday trade to end the week and set up for a long weekend. Corn and wheat looked at both sides with corn gaining 3/4 cent, 464 3/4 and wheat slipping 3/4 cent, 697 1/4. Funds still adding to a pretty big meal position but that bid helped put a bid in beans, 1248, plus 8 3/4. Rumor of India opening up rice exports put some pressure on both old and new crop with July off 14 1/2 to 1834. All the grain markets still feel tired to me and if we don't get something bullish out of the holiday weather patterns, I just don't see what makes the funds come and buy more. Commitments has the funds selling out 50K of corn and now back short 122k net. Beans and oil short positions by the funds down to manageable positions but meal now over 100K long and I struggle to see who the global buyers will be at this level, or $20 lower for that matter. The new crop rice buying was not funds, but an active commercial. I also worry that after the grain crop is planted the farmer has time to think about marketing again. Dow wanted to recover some of the last two days drop but was lucky to hold on, 39,157, plus 4 points while bonds took almost the whole day off, 116.26 for a flat close. Dow lost just less than 1000 points on the week. Expect them to try to glue humpty dumpty back together again next week. Happy holiday weekend.
Thursday exports good for corn but not much else. Corn bumps 2 3/4 cents, 464. Wheat looked briefly above the buck but settles only a nickel better, 698. Beans looked up early as well but faded thru the day to 1239 1/4, down 7. Rice bear pushed a little and we broke 26 1/2 to 1848 1/2. I'll say again that the grain room seems tired. Dow off another 630 points, 39,153 and bonds off 15 tics, 116.26. Kind of nervous about that action.
Humpday trade has beans back up a dime in what's setting up to be more churn than movement, 1246 1/4. Corn up 3 1/4 to 461 1/4. Wheat slips 4 1/2 to 693 and that was off a 716 high. Signaling a possible top. Rice recovered 16 to 1875 but again trade is thin. This feels so much more like a game of greater fools than real pricing in old crop. Dow off 223 points, 39,783 and tired while bonds slip 2 tics, 117.09.
Mon/Tues trade style with corn giving back 2 1/2 cents, 458 while beans slip 11 3/4 to 1236 1/4. Rice off 26 as well, 1859 but sept rice was up 6 with a new long accumulating farmer pricing. Wheat short cover continued, 697 1/2 for another 8 3/4 gain. 40,006 Dow stalled 62 better and bonds uptick9 to 117.11.
Wheat the big gainer Monday, 688 3/4, plus 37 1/2 after briefly touching limit up plus 40. Still below last week's highs and fud short cover appeared to be played like a fiddle. Beans up 20 to 1248 and struggled with a bunch of top weighted volume as it appears short funds got pushed out there as well. To a lesser extent the same story in corn, 460 1/2 for an 8-cent gain. Rice up 9 1/2 to 1885 in another thin trade. I like the sidelines or hedged in all the grains for today. Dow leaked 193 points to close 39,944 and feels very heavy this time to me. Dull bod trade, 117.02, off 8 tics.
Every settle Friday should be held with some level of suspect. Oats have rolled over but still 365. Wheat off another 12 cents, 651 1/4 and nearly half a buck off Wednesday high. It's safe to say Russia won't have quite the inventory to flood the market this year like last so I'd also like to think we have a higher floor than last year. Corn following oats and wheat lower, 452 1/2, off 4 1/2. Fund Commitments in short corn and wheat now down to reasonable numbers. Beans up 11 3/4 to 1228 and SA weather (flooding south and Dry second crop north) is surely having an effect, at least on fund shorts. Interestingly, commitments didn't show much more bean covering from the funds last week. July rice off 34 1/2 with some late pressure to push the weekly close? 1875 1/2. There's not that much old crop rice left out there, But as I was brutally reminded many years ago, if there's one bushel no one wants, it ain't worth too much. Dow got a pretty dress on a quiet day, 40,137, plus 127 points while bonds leaked 19 tics, 117.10.
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