Wednesday 18 1/4 cent bounce in soy, 1232 1/2, with corn following 6 better as well, 481 1/2. Wheat tried but couldn't play, 597 3/4, off 3/4. Rice slipped 3 1/2 to 1555 as we finally got the Sept/Nov spread roll volume showing up. Dow cracked 35000 and closed off 186 points, 34,821. Financials are shaky but this is so far the computer just trying to figure out the size and emotion of the sucker pool. Bonds off 23 more as we abandon the 120 support, 119,12. Ironically, Argentina is potentially abandoning the Peso for the Dollar because the peso is deflating to worthlessness because of poor government policy, moving to a new currency(dollar) that is deflating in value because of poor government policy.
Weaker Tuesday on better ratings and some financial issues in china, as well as the Ruble getting hit again. Argentina election with the thought that a moderate to right fiscal conservative might get into office has some, including me wondering how that will affect their economy. Dec corn drops 12 1/4 to 475 1/2 and Nov soy off 20 3/4 cents, 1305 1/4. Sept beans even weaker as low demand is hurting the late sellers. Sept wheat back under the buck, 598 1/2, off 17 1/2. Sept rice doing the options churn around the 1560 strike, 1558 1/2, off a nickel. Awful lot of spec longs in Sept rice that have a 2 week window to pay to roll or get off the dance floor. Dow presses 364 points lower, 35,007 and bonds check the lows and get a small bounce, 120.03, minus 19 tics. Financial world is jittery. Make no mistake, behind the scene there are some serious calls going on.
Monday brought a strong 400K plus bean export flash and Nov soy responded, 1326, plus 18 1/2. Dec Corn really couldn't get anything going , 487 3/4, plus 1/2 a cent. 616 Sept wheat was off 10 3/4 as the amount of wheat Russia has put on the market short term trumps what might be down the road. And its wheat. Rice gets hit for 35 1/2 with some talk that India might lift the export ban, but mostly the computer seeing that the market was thin until we get down to 1560 options. Combines running hard down in La and working their way north by the day. Quiet financials, bonds off 2 tics, 120.22 and the Dow picking up 20 points, 35,371.
Friday big build up to the WASDE report kind of fizzled as mostly the USDA gave what people expected. Neutral/bearish domestic wheat and we lost 11 by the close, 626 3/4. Corn tried to rally on a 175 yield but faded 20 from the highs to 474 1/2, off 8 3/4. Beans dropped 14 3/4 to 1337 1/4 in the Sept with Nov losing a dime. Rice 21 off the high, 1599, down 4 1/2. Not much bullish in the rice report. We move on now in AG to global events and global demand, as well as any late weather changes. Before the next WASDE we will be talking about SA weather. Dow chopped lower and higher, 35,351 to end 100 better. Bonds off 30 tics and back to a 120 handle, 120.24.
Thursday exports were decent but the market is focused on WASDE Friday and then combines starting up. Corn gained 2 1/4 to 483 1/4 and Wheat was up 2 3/4 to 637 3/4. Sept beans lost 3 1/4 cents, 1352 but Nov bounced nearly a dime. Rice closes 1603 1/2, off 3 1/2. What really caught my eye is the financials with the Dow 450 better and fixing the Tuesday and Wed break, but fading to 35,251, only 49 better. Bond rally died quicker than I'd like as well, 121.22, off a point and 2 tics.
More clean up in front of WASDE Friday. Markets are thin. Wheat off 21 1/4 to 635 on computer whims. Rice bounces 18 cents, 1607 because the computer sees the markets are thin and world stories will keep sellers a bay on a bounce. 1355 1/4 beans are plus 1 3/4 event but meal didn't want to play. 481 corn was a 4 3/4 cent drop following wheat. Dow dropped another 193 points, 35,202 to reset a near perfect 3 day churn and bonds picked up 10 nearly worthless tics, 122.24. Don't overthink what you are seeing right now, worry about what we need to do to finish out this crop.
It's funny how different markets like to interpret news. Things didn't go crazy in Russia over the weekend so Monday the Dow pops 401 points, 35,554 and bonds leak 14 tics, 121.18. Financials are ok. Oh wow, drone strikes, let's juice wheat up 24 1/2 cents to 657 1/2. See where the same news applies however the system of the day wants? Beans drop 38 3/4 to 1348 1/4 and we leak more out of the Sept/Nov spread premium. Corn off a couple, 482 1/4. Middle of the range liquidation trade. 1592 rice loses 3 after being down 25. I would expect people to spend the week cleaning up in front of Friday WASDE and harvest.
More disruptions on the Russian front gave us a bid early Friday in the grain room but nothing wanted to add risk for the weekend. End of the day had sept. beans up a nickel, 1387 and corn up 3 1/2 cents, 484 1/4. Wheat up 6 to 633 for a pretty sorry bounce to an ugly week there. Rice off 13 to give back Thursday rally, 1595. Lots of bullish global news in rice but a domestic harvest just about to ramp up. I was very happy to see bonds bounce a point and 21 tics to mostly recover ugly Thursday trade, 122 even. Dow off another 159 points to 35,153 but even with a soft week we have a 35 handle.
Thursday morning export sales in Soy especially gives hope that we are finding a price where business can get done and I expect to see a firming in river freight or at least some firming in river basis for quick off the combine exports. Should help in grading as well. Stable bean pricing with Sept up 5 1/2 cents, 1382. Nov picked up 4 to close 1325. Rice buyer back for a 14 1/2 cent gain. 1608. Harvest really dialed up down south could become a drag soon though. Wheat a drag on corn again, 627, minus 13 and corn off 7 1/2 to 480 3/4. Sept Dec corn spread is weakening every day as we put carry into the market and Wheat is looking for VSR to be reinstated. That attracts more short selling systems. Instead of VSR, we need to be evaluating why companies don't cancel wheat receipts for end use. Topic for another day. Dow off 91 points in a regroup day, 35,312 and bonds puke a full point and 30 tics, 120.11.
Financials are top of my radar of concern in Wednesday trade. Bonds specifically. Off another 22 tics, 122.09 and tested contract lows. We are resetting to a new lower range, and it could be painful. Bond resets can have long and unexpected fingers. Dow off 354 points, 35,403. Wheat off 12 1/4 to 640 and corn follows, 488 1/4, minus 8 3/4. Sept beans fade down to 1376 1/2, off 10 1/4 but Nov drops 20. Rice the shining light, 1593 1/2 plus 9 cents. Harvest pressure should be showing up.
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