Friday trade dictated by the weekend ahead. Wheat gets a 10 1/2 cent bounce, 604 1/4 with some worries about Russia vessels as well as the fact that we were below 6 bucks so a long weekend trade isn't some crazy risk. Corn off 4 1/4 to 476 1/4 and beans lose 20 1/4 to 1340 1/4 and we are rolling onto a good weekend of combining. Quiet rice, 1621 1/2, up a penny. Dow gave back Thursday gains in a big 2 day churn, 34,927, off 330. Bonds down another 15 tics, 118.19.
Good rice and wheat exports Thursday while corn and beans were lacking, but soy wants to recover Tuesday break. Beans gain 10 3/4 to 1360 1/2 on meal strength. Rice popped another 27 to 1620 1/2 but I think we uncovered some selling up near the highs to stall us for now. Rice does seem to have more people out kicking tires than normal. Corn lost 1 3/4 cents, 480 1/2 and wheat faded to 3 1/2 lower at the close, 593 3/4. All this with a solid 339 point Dow rally, 35,257, so money was out there. Bonds did leak another 19 tics to give back the meager Tuesday and Wednesday gains, 119.02.
Bounce after digesting the WASDE report Wednesday as corn regains 5 3/4 to 482 1/4 with some shorts putting some money in their pocket. Beans struggle to get 3 1/4 higher, 1349 3/4 on the back of oil. Don't like it when oil has to carry the load but it shows that this year bio values must be always in the back of your mind in soy valuations. Wheat up 9 3/4 cents, 597 3/4. Would like wheat to hold and base here but wary of putting much money on the table. Rice up 31 to 1593 1/2. Active river bids down here for now. Dow churned but lost 78 points to end the day 34,918 while bonds rejected the lows and got back to 7 better, 119.21.
Much anticipated WASDE dropped Tuesday at 11. Corn yield dropped but acres increase offset. Corn loses 9 1/4 to 476 1/2. Beans inline with expectations but a few more acres found, and at some point you have to evaluate the corn bean ratio. Minus 22 1/2 in Nov soy, 1346 1/2. Bean oil seems to have found a bio-fuels value down here and if crude stays firm it could give us a better soy floor as well. Wheat traded contract lows and bounced 3 to 587 1/2. Hard to justify a bullish bean bearish wheat stance from these levels. Rice off another 17 to 1562 1/2 as we found yield and acres with a 24 carryover vs 19 previous. River is moving rice so the cash market thinks we are fairly priced here. Dow looked a couple hundred higher but rolled over to 34,996, off 16 on the day. Bonds up 12 tics, 119.14.
Monday was pensive pre WASDE report trade with corn up a couple cents, 485 3/4 and beans picking up 6 to 1369. Wheat continues its full carry slide, 584 1/2, off 11 1/4. Rice down 27 more, 1579 1/2. Getting to value in rice unless we get a bearish WASDE. Dow up 78 points in the Dec, 35,012 and Dec bonds drop 16 tics, 119.02.
Friday morning delayed exports reasonable but really got no kick as harvest and the 9/12 WASDE report are driving trade. Financials stable with bonds up 7 tics, 119.16 and the Dow picking up 80 points. Will be using Dec financial futures moving forward. Wheat down to 595 3/4, off 4. Rice loses another 13 to 1606 1/2 with 460 options traded, although I think most of the trade was a month roll so real exposure isn't up to scale. Open interest still 11,900 of mostly Nov futures and a big commercial short. 483 3/4 corn is 2 1/2 lower and beans pick up 3 1/2 cents, 1363.
Thursday trade somewhat muted with exports delayed until Friday. Corn up 1/2 cent, 486 1/4 in another sleeper day. Wheat hit for 9 1/4 back down to 599 3/4, under 6 bucks again. Beans drop 16 3/4 to 1359 1/2. More rain and less heat to finish. Rice whacked for 50 cents, 1619 1/2 as the funds didn't' want to defend and the computers sense it. Financials dull with the Dow gaining 49 points, 34,528 and bonds up 5 tics, 119.09. One day closer to WASDE.
Beans up 11 1/4 Wednesday, 1376 1/4 and wheat gained 9 3/4 to 609. They got good stories for the day. Lets see if they hold. Corn off 1/4 to485 3/4. Rice leaked 9 1/2 to 1669 1/2. Dow lost another 201 points, 34,479 and bonds stalled 119.04, plus 3 tics. Unless we find new money, this market, especially Ag seems tired and harvest is upon us.
Financial markets a bit soft after the long weekend for Tuesday morning trade and that took some of the loose money out of the grain room. Dow lost 202 points, 34,680 and bonds off a point and 7 tics, 119.01. Rice had a solid 22 1/2 cent bounce with wind damage pretty wide spread, but not sure how much loss vs. knocked down, 1679. Wheat trying to bottom, 599 1/4, plus 3 3/4 and corn picks up 4 1/2 to 486. Products a bit soft and soy slips 4 1/4 to 1365 for a pretty dull Tuesday trade over all. I think we are going into early report mode and early harvest mode. No one wants to overextend for at least the next week until we see what the WASDE report does on the 12th.
Friday brings a new month and concerns of heat over the long weekend. Markets ultimately didn't care. Corn up 3 1/4 to 481 1/2 and beans pick up 1/2 cent, 1369 1/4. Global wheat story has no effect, 595 1/2, off 6 1/2. Rice slips 12 1/2 to 1656 1/2. Financials a bit shaky with the bonds off a point and 10 tics, 120.08 while the Dow climbed 91 higher, 34,882.
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