Friday delayed export sales not terrible by any means but soft and it showed in trade. Corn slipped 1 3/4 to 402 as the stronger of the grains. Not many home runs out there in corn yields coming out to me. Wheat gaining 7 to 625 1/4 helped. Remember, wheat is the global story, while the rest are local logistics stories today. Once everything is in the bin, global stories will become the feature, and that's no more than a week or two away. After higher early trade, beans off 12 1/4 to 1050. Big spread roll in rice and a million bu of vs cash trade as rice futures slip 14 cents, 1237 1/2. Stuck in a range. Dow up early and a 400 point churning range, but settle only 22 points higher, 28,408, and bonds off 11 tics, 174.29.
Thursday trade firm in the wheat, 618 1/4, plus 21 1/2, and that put a stop to any early bearish plays in the other grains. Corn gained 7 1/4 to 403 3/4. Beans looked lower early but closed 6 higher, 1062 1/4. Meal gained $8. Rice up 8 1/2 in quiet roll trade, 1251 1/2. Dow weak early on fears of the Wohan virus in EU, but but ultimately just another churn day for the computers, 400 point range with a 28 lower settle, 28,386. Bonds strong early but fall back to 175.08, off 4 tics.
Mid week trade had more sales reported to china, signaling that price has not shut off the buyer yet. Corn up 5 1/4 to 396 1/2, and beans gain 12 1/4 to 1056 1/4. Meal up $7 as those spreads firm. Part of the feature to me is we aren't seeing big jumps in OI to get the gains. Rice wanting to trade a 1220-1260 range and rallies 19 1/2 to 1243. Wheat up 2 3/4 to 596 3/4. Bonds still trying to confirm we put out a low and up 6 tics, 175.12. Dow off 171 points, 28,414.
Standard Monday/Tuesday trade during harvest, as we rally back a piece of Mondays break. Corn gained back 2 1/4 to 391 1/4 and beans bounced 10 1/4 cents, 1044. Wheat was dead at 594, and rice slipped 7 to 1223 1/2 with what I believe to be commercial buying as we start the roll. Dow gave back 213 points of Monday gains, 28,585, and bonds picked up 26 tics to close 175.06. This is still the bottom area of bonds for me, and if we don't see another 3 or 4 point rally pretty soon, I'm guessing the bankers are resetting their books, and that's not bullish bonds. Or cheap rates in general.
Weekend harvest and some moisture showing up in SA put pressure on grains Monday, as corn drops 6 cents to 389 and beans fall 31 3/4 to 1033 3/4. A bit surprised that beans went below 1040, but nothing violated just yet to me in this move. I would expect a Monday/Tuesday trade as grain harvested over the weekend has been priced and china sales still need to be moved. The commercial has to understand that beans going into a bin are harder to get out, and the commercial needs those beans. Rice broke to support just above 550, and I believe commercial interests are covering needs here. 1230 1/2, minus 16. Wheat up 1/2 to 594 1/4. Dow up 280 to 28,798 as hearings to seat a conservative woman to the supreme court begin. Bonds gain 11 tics, 174.12.
WASDE Friday didn't disappoint. Corn carry over down to 2.1 and corn responds with an 8 cent rally, 395. Beans CO down to 290 and futures pop 15 1/2 cents, 1065 1/2. Beans did press against some decent resistance at 1080 and that will be the next area to fight thru if this rally is going to continue. With open interest in the funds and total OI both so large, we may need to set back to catch our breath. Its all dependent on china sales and fulfillment of those sales. Wheat was a nothing day with a 593 3/4 close, off 1 1/2. Rice had big stops before the report and broke 80, but recovered to 1246 1/2, minus 19. Ugly report. Dow was a relatively quiet up trade, 28,518, plus 208. Dull bonds as well, 174.01, minus 5 tics.
Thursday exports gave Ag an early boost, but we faded thru the day as everyone looks to even up a little in front of a big WASDE report. Corn went from a nickel higher to 387, off 1 3/4. Beans lost all the morning pop to close off a penny, 1050. Rice was another dull day with a 1/2 lower close, 1265 1/2. Wheat fell 12 1/4 to 595 1/4 after one heck of an upside run. Dow had a relatively quiet 300 point range and closed up 131 points, 28,310, while bonds also added 17 tics, 174.06.
Wheat leading the way Wednesday with issues of production all around the world adding fuel, 607 1/2, plus 14 3/4. Beans up 7 to 1051, and corn gains 3 3/4 for a 388 3/4 close. Nov beans gained 12 cents on July beans as the spread is trying to pull product forward to fill the supply chain and the river. China is still buying. Meal up $6, and bean OI only gained 2k. Rice gains 3 1/2 to 1266 and cash trades are out there at overs to the board in a JFM ship. Dow regained all yesterdays drop and more with a 28,179 close, plus 479. Bonds off a point and a tic, 173.21.
Even though china is on vacation, there are more purchases going on Tuesday. Corn up 5 1/2 to 285 and beans rip for 22 1/2 to 1044. Wheat up another 8 1/2 to 592 3/4. Rice is off 7 cents, 1262 1/2. Commercial still keeping rice down and the funds are off playing in the bigger sandbox, so rice is an orphan. Dow was solid, but then Trump said there would be no more stimulus until the election, and Dow dropped 295 lower, 27,700. Bonds were weak and rallied to 15 higher, 174.22.
Monday trade dull in corn, 379 1/2, off 1/4, and beans, 1021 1/2, up 3/4. Wheat got a global bid and gained 11 to 584 1/4. Rice followed along for14 1/2 cents to 1269 1/2. I think the rice commercial is surprised just how firm the farmer is holding onto crop. That said, with rolls, we are approaching $6 a bu. for JFM using the board and a few rolls, so some more pricing should be considered. Dow up 430 to 27,995 as our president gets back to the white house, disappointing the press with his recovery from the China virus. Bonds off a point and 22 tics to 174.07 and thru the bottom of a long range trade. It better snap back in a day or 2, or we have bigger things to talk about in a biggly way.
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