Tuesday had a strong meal bid which gave beans a 10 1/2 cent pop. Crusher going to make money, and a few pennies to the farmer doesn't hurt. Wheat slipped 6 3/4 to 570 1/2 while corn gave up a penny, 489. Extended rain forecasts for Argentina looking better. Rice gained a nickel, 1585 1/2. Just not a lot of action. Dow looked 150 points either side of unchanged in a churn trade but ended the day up 10 lousy points, 34,144. Bonds drop another point and 11 tics, 110 even.
Economy is still alive Monday and the Dow strong with a 307 point higher close, 34,134. I would attribute the rally to lack of selling more than anything else as bonds drop a point and 14 tics, 111.11. Long debt is still and probably will continue to be ugly. November options run very late into the month for expiration so they could have more effects than normal concerning the roll for rice and beans. Beans up 6 cents, 1286 1/4 but corn leaks 3 1/4 to 490 and wheat slips to 577 1/4, off 2 1/2. Rice down 15 in thin computer hunting trade, 1580 1/2.
Friday the 13th and the day after WASDE hangover. Beans give back 9 3/4 to 1280 1/4 and corn is off 2 3/4 to 493 1/4. Surprised at how much fund covering commitments had of the corn short with 47K of futures bought back in a net flat week. Beans hovering around net flat. Wheat got a 8 1/4 cent bounce on short covering, 579 3/4. Rice up 2 1/2 cents, 1595. Dow looked north of 34,000 early but faded to 33,827, still up 31 points. Bonds bounced back from Thursday break, 112.25, plus a point and 10 tics.
Thursday WASDE had nothing bearish and beans and meal especially loved that set up because so many of the fund longs had left the building. Meal rocked higher and soy bumped up against 13 bucks before settling 1290, plus 37 1/2. Corn gained 8 cents, 496 and wheat was good for 15 1/2 to 571 1/2. Rice stalled at unchanged, 1593. I'm not drinking the bull cool-aid just yet. Israel is going to be a continual issue I'm afraid and the bonds gave back a point and 29 tics, 111.15 while the Dow dropped 196 to 33,796.
Wednesday global uncertainties and re balance of books in front of Thursday WASDE report gave corn a 2/12 cent bounce to recover Tuesday dull soft close, 488. Rice picked up 6 as well, 1593 with rumors of some export based bids for late in the year. Wheat off 2 1/2 and hard to explain other than the fat carry charges. 556. Dow up 56 in a dull churn trade, 33,992 and bonds up a point and 10 tics, 113.12. If and when the war escalates I could easily put bonds north of 120 so I wouldn't want to be short any material amount today, but given global issues and changes in FED speak, this isn't some stellar showing in the long end of the curve.
Tuesday trade really didn't have much to guide us concerning how the world is going to react to the recent war escalations and make no mistake, this is going to escalate. Dow held for a third day of gains, 33,936, up 135 points. Bonds had nothing extra, 112.02, plus a tic. Wheat lost 14 1/4 to 558 1/2 and I would think wheat would be setting a floor, but it sure doesn't act like it. Corn lost 2 3/4 to 485 1/2. Beans gained 7 1/4 cents, 1271 1/2 and rice picked up 4 1/2 in late bids, 1587.
War in Israel is the lead story for Monday trade but everything is fuzzy. Dow dipped but closed 201 points higher, 33,801. Bonds up a point and 18 tics but barely a 112 close. Grain trade muted with wheat up 4 1/2 to 572 3/4 but corn losing 3 3/4 to 488 1/4 and beans slipping 1 3/4 to 1264 1/4. Meal had some strength but oil was weak and the bio component of soy oil is fading quickly. If the crusher cant make 56 cents on the oil and meal stays below 380, its going to be hard to rally beans. Rice gave back 22 cents of the Friday pop, 1582 1/2. Rice harvest should be winding down.
Friday trade lacked follow thru from Thursday and wound up mostly being a giveback day for the grain room. Corn off 5 1/2 cents, 492 as the market rejected 5 bucks and wheat drops a dime, 568 1/4. Beans off 14 3/4 to 1266 with softer meal. Rice got a 37 cent pop as someone saw a lack of sellers and pushed us up to 1604 1/2. Dangerous move going into a weekend. Dow looked about 300 lower but rallied to 296 better at the end af a choppy swing trade day, 33,600. Bonds briefly had a 108 handle and closed off 30 more tics, 110.15.
A little something for everyone in exports to start Thursday morning, plus some Russia corridor jitters and SA weather concerns all made the bears take a day off in the ag room. Short covering led to an 18 1/4 cent bounce in wheat, 578 1/4. Corn follows for 11 1/2 to 497 1/2. Meal got a bid and soy closed 1280 3/4, up 7 3/4. Hard to get much of a push with so much harvest left and the river so low. Nothing in rice, 1567 1/2, up 3. I'm told storage is getting to be an issue at one of the big players because of such a big bean handle this year. Dow spend the day consolidating lower and closed off 22 points, 33,304 while bonds lost 3 tics as well, 111.13.
Wednesday trade muted as harvest continues. Corn slipped another 1 1/2 cents, 486, while wheat was off 8 1/2 to 560. Beans held as it appears commercial interest will keep the new issued meal receipts, 1273, plus 1/4. Rice off a dozen to 1564 1/2 with continued harvest pressure and some small fund longs taking the exit. Dow trying desperately to lay a base but waited until the end of the day to get a pretty dress-up, 33,326, up 125 points. Bonds get a 27 tic bounce as well, 111.16.
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