Tuesday we had a little missile mishap into Poland from Russia. That promptly put an end to a 400 point stock rally and wheat briefly under $8. Solid bounces in the grain room as beans gain 16 3/4 to 1457 1/4 and corn up 9 1/2 to 666 3/4. Wheat 9 3/4 cents higher, 828 1/4. Rice was a laggard as the fund long is looking at cleaning out still, 1778, off 17 1/2. Not a lot of rice involved in the Russian wheat corridor. Dow got north of 34,000 but set back to 33,605, still 44 higher and a bit of a surprise. Bonds gained 28 tics on flight to quality and I am getting nervous about this bond rally here, 124.17.
Monday trade pretty much a punt. Dow did give back 202 points of last week rally late, still 33,561, while bonds slip 5 tics, 123.21. Grain room pretty dead with nothing exciting coming out of G20 other than the expectation that Russia will keep the corridor open. I wonder if the recent Russian pullback is so Ukraine has to take care of that population for the winter instead of Russia. Good way to swing the local sentiment when winter winds blow and supplies are low. Wheat did get a 4 3/4 bounce, 818 1/2, but we are at 8 bucks. Corn off 3/4 to 657 1/4. Beans off 9 1/2 to 1440 1/2. Got some final soy deliveries to put pressure on the tail of the spread. Rice down 2 cents, 1795 1/2. November futures are done.
Friday strength in beans from covid off talk in china, 1450, up 27. Wheat gained 10 1/4 to 813 3/4, and corn got a 4 3/4 cent bounce, 658. Rice slipped 3 as the bull didn't get herded and we have come to solid cash sales. 1797 1/2. Dow in a pretty tight range for the times, 33,763, plus 51 points, while bonds slip 10 tics from a big Thursday up move, 123.26.
Crazy day Thursday. We start with soft grain exports, but get a lower CPI, which is music to equities ears. Dow rips higher pre open and holds all day, closing a whopping 1185 points higher, 33,712. In my college days, today's point rally was the Dow 30 in its entirety. Bonds rally 4 points and 15 tics. As a reference, when I started on the floor, bonds had a 2 point limit before trade was halted, and that almost never was a consideration. Surprisingly, no spill over to the grains. Beans hit for 29 to 1423 on china covid policies and soft meal, corn down 11 1/4 to 653 1/4, and wheat off 3 cents, 803 1/2. Most now assume the Russia corridor will gt extended, but I suspect some drama next week. Ultimately, Russia is the big winner with it open, but I expect Putin will try to extract some other concessions first. Rice up a couple cents, 1800 1/2 and we gained open interest, so we probably have a new long fund getting suckered into the deep end. Crop marketing McGehee delivered 186 rice receipts, and with Mississippi basis so soft and freight so high, it makes some sense. Why they didn't deliver the first day, or at this point wait until the last is beyond me. Or just roll at 40 cents for that matter.
Wednesday WASDE brought us slightly bearish numbers for most grains, and more comfort that the Russia corridor will stay open. Wheat went thru support and closed 806 1/2, off 21 1/4. Corn only off 3 to 664 1/2. Beans looked lower on the report but bounced well and closed 5 1/2 higher, 1452. Rice short still on the hook, 1798 1/2, plus 6. We seem to be running into a fair amount of resistance here. Dow finds the red wave didn't materialize, and we are off 648 points, 32,527, just giving back part of an outsized rally. Bonds off 9 tics, 119.21.
Election day trade mostly had Ag longs cleaning up in front of WASDE Wednesday. Corn off 8 1/4 to 667 1/2. Wheat down 18 to 827 3/4 and bumping against recent lows. Beans slip another 3 3/4 to 1446 1/2. Rice short funds still getting squeezed, 1792 1/2, plus 13 1/2. We are going to need to see some new rice exports to keep this train running. Dow up another 337 points leading into the election, 33,175, and bonds pop for a point and 13 tics, 119.30.
Monday Ag room a bit soft with no reopen in China after all and WASDE on Wednesday with the spec long pretty extended. The market is definitely not set up for a bearish surprise. Beans off a dozen by the end of the day, 1450 1/4. Its still 14.50, and we are now trading SA weather, which appears to be improving, not us production or demand. Bean oil rally may have run its course. Corn down 5 1/4 to 675 3/4, and wheat, after churning both sides closes off a couple cents, 845 3/4. Rice short still coming out, 1779, plus 9 1/2, for the one bright spot in grains. Dow rocks 410 higher in front of the election, 32,838, and more than 800 points in 2 days. Bonds off 29 tics, 118.17.
Strong day Friday with talk of china reopening driving stocks and beans. The whole soy complex was firm with soy up 25 1/4 on the close. Corn could only muster a 1 3/4 cent gain, 681. Talk that Brazil has booked year end cargoes to China and stealing our business with the trade. Wheat up 7 1/4 to 847 1/4, but its still under 850 and its wheat, so? Rice up 11 1/2 to 1769 as the short buys his way out of a stupid selling position, and it appears he still has a ways to go. Dow up 411 points, 32,428, and bonds off 28 tics, 119.14.
Thursday exports good in beans and rice, a bit soft elsewhere. Kind of a buy the rumor, sell the fact day and risk off in the financials as well. Rice settled unchanged, 1758. Beans off 17 to 1437. Corn slipped 8 1/4 to 679 1/4, and wheat bounced from lows but still 5 1/2 down on the day, 840 1/2. Dow closed down 161 points, 32,017, and bonds down 13 tics as well, 120.10. It took a decent bounce in both financial quotes to get to these settles, so the computer did probe lower.
China gives us more lock downs instead of openings, some moisture predicted in Brazil in the coming days, and Putin agrees to keep the corridor open. A stack of pretty ugly news to open grains Wednesday morning, and wheat opens terrible and just couldn't bounce, 846, off 56 1/2. Corn off 10 1/4 to 687 1/2, and after a rough start, oil leads beans back higher on the day, 1454, plus 6 1/4. Bunge did stop most of the beans redelivered. Rice held up pretty well given the rest of the market, and open interest only dropped 280 with 1800 contracts of volume. Light deliveries as well. Interesting. Every day seems to be a curve ball in volume and open interest. 1758, off 7 cents. Dow had a 1000 point range with Powell starting on script and giving us a decent bounce, but the more he talked to worse the market reacted. off 507 points to close 32,178. Bonds off 10 tics, 120.23.
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