Tuesday feature was lower inflation news and talk that the FED is done hiking. Dow went on a joyride for 502 points, 34,887. Have to say I thought the equities looked tired on Monday trade and I missed that one by a mile. Bonds pop 2 points and 5 tics, 115.14, but funny that the move is just back near top of recent range and not a blow thru. Spread really doesn't reflect an eminent Fed rate drop either, so the big money bond boys aren't nearly as convinced as the general public. Beans up 7 1/4 to 1389 3/4 with a bean oil bid in tow. Corn struggled to gain a penny, 478 1/4 and wheat dropped 7 to 572. Nov rice went off with no fanfare and Jan was up 3 at the close, 1677 1/2. We really need the river to rise.
Xi is coming to town, bean sales to China announced on cue and soy up 35 cents Monday, 1382 1/4. Meal up nearly 20 bucks after trading up limit in a long fund squeeze. Mexico bought some more corn for a 13 1/4 cent gain, 477 1/4. Wheat only dragged up 3 3/4 to 579. Rice took the day off, 1674 1/2. plus 1/2. Dull financials Monday as well, 113.09 bonds, off 3 tics while the Dow gained 47 points, 34,385.
Friday Dow pops 394 points to give the week a decent if not painted close, 34,338 while bonds pick up 13 tics, 113.12. More bean China sales give soy a 4 cent boost, 1347 1/2, and more importantly maybe stabilize the Thursday break. 1674 rice is up 22 1/2 cents on prompt river demand. Corn off another 4 cents, 464 and wheat drops 5 1/2 to 575 1/4.
Thursday brings good export sales and more China bean sales on daily flash, but WASDE gave a bigger crop in soy and corn. I would argue that the difference in soy is a rounding error, but beans drop 22 1/4 to 1343 1/2. We needed a bullish report to extend the rally and didn't get it. Corn found almost 2 Bu. and acre yield increase and they puffed demand to offset most of the gain. Corn off 8 cents, 468. Wheat down 11 1/2 to 580 3/4. Bond auction didn't go so well and bonds faded a point and 27 tics, 112.31 while the Dow set back 229 points, 33,944. Financials a bit shaky after a pretty big run.
Big China bean sale and missile hit on a vessel in Ukraine fuel for grains Wednesday with a solid bean pop that faded back to 1365 3/4, up only 3 3/4 and a 22 cent wheat rally, 592 1/4. Corn rides along for 7 1/2 to 476. Oats off another dime. Radar up. Rice computer pushing to the upside with lots of demand stories hoping to unfold, 1640 1/2, plus 35. Riceland delivered another 49 new receipts. Dow took a breather and gave back 42 points, 34,173 and bonds gained another 27 tics, 114.26.
Tuesday vibe is Deck chairs getting a reshuffle in front of Thursday WASDE numbers and thinner markets get easier to push around. Corn hit for 8 3/4 to 468 1/2. Wheat off 5 1/2 cents, 570 1/4. Beans traded 1380 but faded to 1362, off a couple. Rice bull trade system caught some shorts and there is river as well as milled business, 1605 1/2, plus 25. Bonds gained another full point and a half, 113.31 while the Dow seems toppy, 34,215, plus 51.
Monday trade just a stable balance after a strong financial run last week and nothing over the top thru the weekend battles in Israel or Ukraine. Dow in a tight range trade, 34,164, plus 27 points. Bonds gave back Friday rally, 112.15, off a point and 6 tics. Corn looked a bit firm but faded back to unchanged, 477 1/4. Wheat looked a bit weak but found footing and rallied 3 1/4 higher, 575 3/4. I believe we are firming black sea prices and that could firm our wheat as well. Bean oil held the lamp Monday for the 12 1/4 cent soy rally, 1364. Rice gives back a nickel, 1580 1/2. We are seeing the start of December positions roll, some evening up in front of WASDE on the 9th, and some setting up for or getting out of the way of the pending silly season.
Friday trade firm everywhere as confidence grows that Powell is done raising rates. Truth is the government needs to cut spending for us to be sure Powell is done, but that is a topic for another day. Wheat up 7 to 572 1/2 and corn pops 7 1/4 to 477 1/4. Thar was a surprisingly easy jump in corn and shows the shorts aren't overly proud of their position. Keep in mind we are on the starting edge of silly season thru thanksgiving, Christmas and the New Year, where funny money does funny things trying to dress up a year worth of trading revenue. Wheat and corn have some impressive fund shorts to defend. Meal rips for 15 bucks and beans follow, 1351 3/4, plus 23 1/2. Rice up 4 cents, 1585 1/2. Still a lot of Nov futures positions sitting at a big positive spread to Jan and waiting on receipts that should have already came if we were flush with extra rice. Dow up another 223 points, 34,137 and 1600 points better than last Friday close. You don't see that kind of a sustained move very often but just a clear flag that silly season is upon us. Bonds up another point and 5 tics, 113.21. That was a full point off the highs.
Solid exports Thursday morning in Soy and rice, good enough everywhere else but only beans had much of a reaction. 1328 1/4, plus 13 1/4 and did it without much help from the products. Wheat gained 3 3/4 to 565 1/2 but corn dropped a nickel, 470 and rice lost 18 cents, 1581 1/2. Dow still on its post Powell upward tear, 33,914, up 563 points and bonds gained 2 points and 2 tics, 112.16.
Hump day trade pretty subdued in the grain room with a 5 1/2 cent recovery in the wheat, 561 3/4 and a 4 1/2 cent gain in the Jan beans, 1315. Jan rice slipped a penny, 1599 1/2 and importantly taking out the $16 iceberg bid while corn was off 3 3/4 cents, 475. Financials stable and stronger with the new perception that Powell is thru with rate increases. Bonds up a full point, 110.14 and the Dow up again, 33,351, plus 216 points.
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