Friday more of a year end winding down action but decent action by the end of the day none the less. Wheat lost 3000 open interest but up another 13 1/2 cents, 629 1/4. China rumors better be true to keep this dog in the hunt. Corn followed 3 3/4 better, 483. I guess our 20 cent range needs adjusted from 480-500 to 475-495 for where the churn computers may want to ruin. Meant to type run, but I'll let the slip stand. Beans up 1 3/4 to 1315 3/4. Not bad. Big roll in the rice and large liquidation for a 1712 close, plus 1 1/2. Little player is over his skis long. Temporary reprieve in the river level might give him an out. 18 better Dow close, 37,661 and bonds up 11 tics, 123.25. Bonds at 124 or 118 send me the same signal, so its still wait and see what the rest of the world thinks of our debt load vs. what the FED thinks it can engineer.
Solid exports Thursday gave us a floor but not the bounce I wanted to see. Beans gained 6 1/2 to 1314 and also had a big new flash sale on top of exports. Not that good of action. Wheat recovered 1/2 of Wed break, 615 3/4, plus 10 1/2. Corn up a nickel early but off 1/4 by the end of the day, 479 1/4. Rice did gain 16 1/2 cents, 1710 1/2 as the recent water level gains that are expected to be short lived in Mississippi river are encouraging fast barge loading. Santa expected to bring the river a new sand bar a few days after Christmas. Dow melt up continues, 37,643, up 155 points while bonds work the top of range, 123.14, up A point and 25 tics.
Biggest story Wednesday was the Fed minutes and Powell kind of taking a victory lap as well as giving all the money boys exactly what they have been squealing for the last several weeks. Specifically 3 cuts probable in the second half of next year. Fed had no idea they should start until way too late but now they already know where the economy is going to be 6-9 months from now. Dow loved it and popped 521 points, 37,488 to contract highs and big wall street bonuses. Bonds up 2 points and 5 tics, 121.21. Wheat off 20 1/4 to 605 1/4 in yo yo trade. Corn back to the bottom of the range, 479 1/2, off 5 3/4. Beans drop 16 1/4 as well, 1307 1/2. At least rice managed a nickel gain, 1694. Rice is cheap in the world right now, just getting it shipped before SA production rolls in.
Funky holiday trade Tuesday with Wheat bouncing 16 cents, 625 1/2 with corn up 3 3/4 to 485 1/4 while beans give back 12 1/4 to 1323 3/4. Rice off 20 as well, 1689. Dow gets new contract highs, 36,967, plus 161 and bonds up 16 tics, 119.16.
Drier forecast for Brazil over the weekend put some zip in the soy step Monday with beans up 32 to 1336 and products stronger too. Rumors of more china purchases floating around. Rice up a nickel, 1709 but wheat pounded for 22 1/4 cents, 609 1/2. Some talk that China is done there. Corn slips 4 to 481 1/2 as we test the bottom of the range. Bonds stalled at 119 even, unchanged while the March Dow continues its drift up, 36,806 You should be in March for any financials moving forward.
WASDE dropped Friday morning with a punt that didn't provide much fuel for the bulls. Beans faded to 1304, off 7 3/4. Wheat lost 10 1//2 to 631 3/4. Corn slipped 2 1/2 to 485 1/2. Slightly friendly rice still off 2 1/2 cents at the end of the day, 1704. Dow had its standard late pump to end the week 114 points higher, 36,280 while bonds gave up a point and 8 tics, 119 even. Fed will be out Wednesday with some chatter but unlikely to actually do anything.
Thursday morning greeted with solid exports pretty much across the grain room. Beans recover Wednesday loss and up 16 1/4 on the day, 1311 3/4. Wheat good for 8 3/4 cents, 642 1/4. Corn 488 close good for 3 3/4. Rice up another 13 to 1708. Kind of in no mans land for WASDE. Financials stalled, 36,166 in the Dow for 54 points to the good and bonds slip 9 tics, 120.09 as the big money boys have to think a bit harder about bond purchases from here on.
Wednesday saw the Dow trade to new highs but fade, 36,112, off 77. Bonds up a point and 5 tics, 120.18 and into an area of resistance for the rally. Meal gives back Tuesday gains and soy drops a dime, 1295 1/2. Corn of 6 1/4 as well, Oats give up 20. 484 1/4. Wheat struggles to hold gains, 633 1/2, plus 2 1/4 after looking up 650 early. Rice in a 14 cent bounce, 1695 but computer is running that show.
Tuesday trade has wheat up another 10 3/4 to 631 1/4 and corn gaining a nickel, 490 1/2. Decent export sales and we just got too cheap. Beans off 3/4 cent, 1305 1/2 but meal acts like it wants to base and had a nice pop. 1681 rice was off 9 and running into scale down buying. Dow slips 79 points, 36,189 while bonds rally a point and 27 tics, 119.13. Very interested to watch the action between 120-122 there.
Solid new exports reported with flash sales of meal, corn and wheat. China wheat purchases confirmed and we gain 17 3/4 to 620 1/2. Big issue now is how much total they will take. So far the short fund has not ran for the hills and as I sit right now I believe the cash market is happy to absorb the sales. Wondering if we have just set a floor or something bigger. We probably need to see china back at the trough to blow the funds out. Oats up a dime. Corn up 3/4 cent, 485 1/2. River conditions have allowed for some unusual locations delivering against the Dec contract. The farmer needs a healthy river. The 1325 area didn't hold in soy and we lost 18 3/4 to 1306 1/4. Rice short system testing the bulls which appear to be a bit over their skis, 1690, off 28 1/2. Dow off early but recovers to 36,268, minus 35 while bonds slip 19 tics, 117.18.
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