Another churn day in the grain room Tuesday with some short cover by the managed money to add a small dose of spice. Wheat the biggest benefactor with a 9 3/4 cent bump up, 552 1/2. Corn gained 3 1/2 to 439 1/2. Beans slipped 2 1/4 to 1185 1/2. Rice down 4 as well in nothing trade, 1773. Everyone really waiting on the reports of the 28th. More of the bank backed analysts are looking at less fed rate cuts this year and the Dow gains 316 points, 39,539. Bonds gained 17 tics which is counter to the story and catches my eye, 118.23.
Nothing really exciting about Monday trade. I was traveling all day and couldn't watch the action, but I believe we are just churning around. Corn slips 3/4 to 436. Beans off 10 1/2 cents, 1187 3/4 and wheat pops 14 1/4 to 542 3/4. Rice down a nickel, 1777. Dow picked up 70 points, 39,223 while bonds are off 17 tics, 118.06.
Export flash in corn Friday good for a floor and corn closed 3 better, 436 3/4. Funds covered 40K of shorts in the commitments report. Beans kiss 12 bucks and settle 1198 1/4, up 3 as well. 1782 rice slipped 4 1/2. Wheat off 3 3/4 cents, 528 1/2 with more China cancellation rumors, but all across the grain floor I was satisfied with the basing or stabilizing action. Dow off 194 points, 39,153 and bonds in a lull, 118.23, unchanged.
Thursday had soy exports to China as early fuel, but market faded more than 20 from the highs to 1195 1/4, off 1 1/2. Corn down 7 1/2 cents, 433 3/4 but really stopped at resistance and so far, held support. Afraid we are going to be in range trades for a bit. Wheat off a dozen to 532 1/4 but Russia acts like they have found a floor so even if wheat tests the lows I wouldn't expect a lot more downside. Rice off 11 to 1786 1/2. Deliveries are done so if the funds are going to try an upside push, I would expect it in the next week. Dow drops 174 points, 39,347 and bonds off a point and 17 tics as well, 118.23. Bonds nearing the bottom of my range for this move.
No real feature Wednesday with a weaker opening gathering no new followers and we recover to 1196 3/4 in the beans, plus 3/4. Corn slips 1/2 to 441 1/4 and wheat off 3 1/4 to 544 1/4 with more China cancellation rumors. Grain market needs something new for this upside trade to continue. Rice gained a dozen on a late dress up, 1797 1/2. Country has sold most of its rice inventory, but it seems that the river is sated. Dow up 41 points, 39,521 and bonds off 16 tics, 120.08.
Beans up 16 3/4 on Tuesday, 1196, with the whole soy complex covering shorts. Corn unchanged, 441 3/4 and wheat gained 1/4 to 547 1/2. Rice up 2 1/2 cents, 1785 1/2 but concerning to see new deliveries at carry out of McGehee. Thats as good of a river location as one could ask, and the river has been the bull's fuel. Dow melt up continues, 39,480, plus 246 and bonds off 21 tics, 120.24.
New week Monday and trade left me a bit confused. Not really catching any system patterns and I wonder if we have a system turnover. Sidelines looking good for a day or two until someone shows their hand. Wheat the feature as we set new lows on another China cancellation and proceeded to rally 25 cents with a 547 1/4 close, plus 9 1/2 on the day. Corn gained a couple to 441 3/4 and beans gave back 4 3/4 to 1179 1/4 on really choppy trade. Rice slips a nickel, 1783 and the river is still moving but the clock is ticking. June for the financials with June Dow up 41 points, 39,234 and bonds leaking 3 tics, 121.13. That is a huge price to roll longs from March to June in the Dow contract.
Feature Friday after WASDE punt was bean follow thru buying for 17 3/4 cents in soybeans, 1184. Corn held Thursday rally and added 1 3/4 to 439 3/4 and wheat even bounced 9 1/4 to 537 3/4. Rice up 6 cents, 1788 and river seems to be running but caught up. Exports raised 3 million in LG. Dow slipped 70 points Friday, 38,756 and bonds give up 7 tics as well is a quiet financial day, 121.16.
Thursday exports had a little something for everyone as a morning base and short covering in front of WASDE as well as poking thru moving averages provided upside fuel. Corn gains 9 1/4 to 438 while beans pick up 18 cents, 1166 1/4. Rice fund seller at it again but again met with decent scale down buying. 1782, off 11. Wheat had more China export cancellations, but market took it in stride, 528 1/2, off only 2 1/2. It's harder to push a bear story when you are already banging on the lows. Dow got a 120-point bounce, 38,826 while bonds picked up 4 tics, 121.23.
Wednesday trade notable for wheat setting new lows, 531, minus 20 and rice off another 17 1/2 to 1793. Plus side has corn up 2 1/2 cents, 428 3/4 and beans closing 1148 1/4, off 3/4. I still believe we are basing here. Charts pushed some funds to the sidelines in rice, but the river is still moving. Russia can't sell cheap wheat forever. Dow up 99 points, 38,706 and bonds gain another 24 points for a nice 2-day up move, 121.19.
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