January 16th, 2020
Thursday trade was a good example of how little fundamental information matters to this market, unless the algorithmic systems want it to matter. Solid corn exports and a reasonable expectation that china will be taking products, but corn drops 12 cents to 375 1/2. Bottom of what I expected for the low end, with over 20K of new fund selling coming in to reestablish short positions. Cant tell you how low they might want to push downward, but china has to love our funds. Rice off 2 1/2 with more fund defending and 230 more vs cash. Beans off 4 3/4 to 924, but meal exports could not be overlooked and meal stood firm on the day. Oil will be taking its usual back seat moving forward in the crush this year if I have it figured right. The curve ball will be in place my march 18th if its going to be in play this marketing season. (Storage change and the carry spreads). Wheat off 8 but still above Monday, 565 1/4. Back to the broken record and dow melt up story, 29,240 and 211 higher. I've definitely left a pretty piece of change on the tale in the old IRA finding the sidelines early there. Glad you guys don't pay me for equities advice. Bonds slip back 13 tics but still pretty impressive holding power in the face of the stock market run, more like acceptance of long term lower rates than flight to quality.
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