Friday

Friday trade all revolved around what you were exposed to.  Dow tried to rally, but weekend shutdown fears allowed for a 835 point futures break, 19,040.  Several of the big historical bear markets were in the 45% area lower, give or take, so I could see my 15-16,000 number achieved next week potentially.   I honestly never thought that much of a pullback was possible, and now I wonder if that will stop it.  America has never been shut down like this, coast to coast.  We are in uncharted waters, and its better to have dry powder wherever possible.  Fear always presents opportunity.  You can bet Buffet is working overtime this weekend deciding which inept CEO to fleece for terms the public could never imagine.  Bonds up 3 points 11 tics to 175.31.  In Ag, wheat held Thursdays rally and added 4 1/4 more, 539 1/4.  Corn gave back only 1 3/4 to 343 3/4.   Meal up another 10 bucks, dragging beans up another 19 1/4 to 862 1/2.  For beans and corn, price from here is port dependent.  Argy and Brazil are having port troubles, opening the door to more global exports out of the PNW and gulf, but we have to be able to execute.  As long as we can load vessels, I expect a fair amount of business.  Just as people hoard when food supply concerns arise, so will countries and foreign governments.  And we don't have the excess that the USDA currently has on their balance sheets.  Rice took a 63 1/2 cent dive as the early week buy specs got hammered to end the week.  1328 1/2, about where the commercial is still willing to bid.  How would you like to have to explain to your boss how you burned 1.5-2 million on a spec trade in an ill-liquid market in 2-3 days?  Bet that guy isn't coming back anytime soon.