Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
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today's thoughts
General notes to start daily individual updates

Bloody monday

3/16/2020

 
Monday Dow collapse of 2589 point to 20,399 shook the market to its core. If you erase the fantasy 1300 point late Friday rally, the loss is cut in half, but that is a story for another day.   Bonds up 4 points, 13 tics to 181.02.  Fed open up the spigot but not enough.  Fear has taken over around the world, and sadly, just like this virus, some of the hype will just take more time to run its course.  At this point I would have to say global wealth as been destroyed at a level never before seen in history, in dollar terms.  With us in Ag, longer term, we clearly have demand destruction in corn because ethanol 15 billion gallons will be a ceiling instead of a floor.  As people shut in, fuel demand drops, just like it did in china.  corn closes off 11 at 354 3/4, on long liquidation.  I still hope for a decent rally, as current supply is overstated and nothing incentivizes the farmer to produce record yields, but the upside has lowered.  .  Long liquidation in beans put us down 27 cents, 821 3/4.  Meal off only 3 and I think after the early margin call selling, beans could have a decent bounce.  Wheat down 8 to 498.  Rice up 29 1/2 to close 1361 1/2, in the area of options congestion and a bit above where I thought this rally could go.   Problem is I don't have a firm handle on how much new domestic demand has been created from these store runs, but it is a measurable amount.  Now is the time for calm and measured decisions, not knee-jerk reactions.  I expect some novel and positive changes to come out of the back side of this storm..  This is America, and that's just what we do.

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