Oats up 25 on Friday had to grab a little attention, but will that run stick, or was it just a bull/bully taking advantage of a small window of opportunity to press a thin market? My guess is there will be new bullets in the chamber come Monday morning. Corn settled off 1/4 cent, 573, with no follow-thru after the explosive Thursday numbers on yield. I would note that corn Open Interest dropped 10,000 on the day, reminding us that we are probably playing a greater fools theory game here. Wheat did pick up 8 3/4 to 762 1/4 in Sept, and Dec is bumping my expected price model valuation, so I would expect something new is necessary to keep this bull running. Logistics will keep regional basis way more violent in wheat than most years, but the board has a path for 2 different types of wheat to fill the same hole for the commercial seller, not to mention grades that the food boys cant or wont work with. Just ask Kraft/Mondelez. Global edible oils strong, including bean oil, and beans rallied 24 to 1365. That rally also had a nearly 11K bump in OI to accomplish the bounce. Dow painted a new high and backed off nearly 100 to close 35,420, up 18 in a feeble attempt to look good, but bonds gained a point and a half on the day, 164.13, and that had to make the bulls less interested in going home long equities over the weekend. One or the other should flinch Monday or Tuesday next week. Will be fun to watch who has the weaker hand.
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