Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
Malcom Ag Group, Inc.
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  • Home
  • Commentary
  • About
    • Bio
  • Contact
  • Links
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  • Individual advisory service
  • Archives
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    • CASE 1845 C
    • Cost Of Carry
    • Options
    • A possible momentum trading program
    • data

today's thoughts
General notes to start daily individual updates

Wednesday

7/8/2020

 
Wheat trade Wednesday was up 21 1/4 on the day, 516 1/2.  The reason I lead with wheat isn't because I like the contract, I don't, but because of why I think it rallied.  Funds got comfortable shorting again and I believe the fear was induced from international causes, EU and black sea reasons.  Shorter crop potentials and hotter drier conditions.  Where they grow wheat they grow corn.  At the same time on the calendar as us.  I obviously want to be done for old crop corn inventory up here, and want to be selling some new crop.  Nothing changes my opinion that corn will be the weakest of our three legs of grain.  Funds have covered about 1/2 of their corn shorts and some are long.  But this exemplifies why I have been pushing primarily the put strategy which gives us a floor while having some upside room to run for higher cash sales.  Again, it is client and location specific.  In the delta I expect basis gains for what we store to cover options costs, not the case in Illinois.  Lets use Thursdays rally to get some more corn puts bought, and pray they go off worthless. Beans off 5 3/4 Wednesday but not any hurries to sell, 890 3/4.  Rice off 20 1/2 as the bull didn't defend, 1210.  Bonds off 2 tics, 178.30, and Dow up 199 to 25,969.

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